Lyngby1SonderjyskE1

HT 1–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 12:00 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 19–18On targetOn target 4–3CornersCorners 6–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 00:57 · Europe/Bucharest

SønderjyskE's two suspended centre-backs weaken an already poor away side, but Lyngby's home draws and the market's heavy favouritism leave no value on the home win or double chance.

Avoid the short odds on Lyngby and the goals markets; the edge is negative across the board.

Context

SonderjyskE are in the relegation playoff zone with one point from seven games, having lost six and drawn one.
Their away record is even worse: three losses from three, with three goals scored and seven conceded. This match against Lyngby, who are also in the relegation zone, is a direct six-pointer. SonderjyskE need points to close the gap, but their form suggests they will struggle to get them.
- SonderjyskE have 1 point from 7 matches (0W, 1D, 6L).
- Their away record is 0W, 0D, 3L with 3 goals scored and 7 conceded.
Sønderjyske's newly signed centre-back is suspended for the Lyngby match after a red card against AC Horsens.
The two-match ban starting on 13 September means Sønderjyske cannot use their recent central-defence signing. This compounds the defensive changes following Daniel Grétarsson's departure, leaving the away side with fewer options in that area.
- Sønderjyske signed a centre-back on a three-year contract on 2 September.
- The club confirmed that the new defender was sent off against AC Horsens on 6 September.
- The Danish FA’s current Superliga disciplinary list records suspension dates of 13 and 20 September.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 00:56 · Europe/BucharestSønderjyske Fodbold: centre-back signingsoenderjyskefodbold.dk · 2 Sep 2026Sønderjyske Fodbold: AC Horsens match reportsoenderjyskefodbold.dk · 6 Sep 2026DBU: current Superliga disciplinary listwww.dbu.dk · 9 Sep 2026
Lyngby are in the relegation playoff zone with six points from seven games, but their home form is better than their away form.
At home, Lyngby have drawn all three matches: 1-1 against Odense, 1-1 against FC Midtjylland, and 2-2 against Aarhus. They have not lost at home, but they have also not won. Against a struggling SonderjyskE, they will see this as a chance to get their first home win, but their inability to close out games could be a problem.
- Lyngby's home record: 0W, 3D, 0L, 4 goals scored, 4 conceded.
- Recent home results: 1-1 vs Odense (Aug 30), 1-1 vs FC Midtjylland (Aug 16), 2-2 vs Aarhus (Aug 1).
Lyngby's new centre-back Arttu Hoskonen is returning from injury and only beginning work with the group.
His readiness for the Sønderjyske match remains uncertain, so Lyngby's central-defence selection could stay unchanged. The club has not confirmed a match squad, leaving his involvement as a watch item.
- Lyngby announced Hoskonen’s contract on 7 September.
- The club described him as a centre-back returning from injury.
- Lyngby said it was looking forward to getting him into the group and onto the training pitch.
To watchSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 00:56 · Europe/BucharestLyngby Boldklub: Arttu Hoskonen contractlyngby-boldklub.dk · 7 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Lyngby

1.64fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 61%

0.0ppshort

Lyngby are unbeaten at home this season while SonderjyskE have lost all three away games, but the hosts' three home draws temper the edge.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Lyngby or Draw

1.18fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 85%

−10.0ppshort

Lyngby's home resilience and SonderjyskE's away struggles make a home win or draw highly likely, but the odds are very short.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.57fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches trend toward goals, especially with SonderjyskE's leaky defense, making over 2.5 goals plausible.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown ability to score while SonderjyskE's defense is vulnerable, supporting both teams scoring.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.29fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to see first-half goals, especially with SonderjyskE's early defensive lapses.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lyngby's unbeaten home record and SonderjyskE's poor away form give the hosts a clear edge, though Lyngby's many draws temper confidence.
- Lyngby home record this season: 0W-3D-0L, 4 goals scored, 4 conceded
- SonderjyskE away record: 0W-0D-3L, 3 goals scored, 7 conceded
- SonderjyskE overall form: LLLLD, 1 point from 7 matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLyngbyEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Lyngby's home resilience with SonderjyskE's away struggles makes a home win or draw highly likely.
- Lyngby have not lost at home this season (3 draws)
- SonderjyskE have lost all 3 away matches
- SonderjyskE have only 1 point from 7 games
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLyngby or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lyngby's slightly better first-half scoring and SonderjyskE's tendency to trail early give the hosts a modest edge.
- Lyngby led at halftime in 36% of matches
- SonderjyskE trailed at halftime in 33% of matches
- Lyngby average 0.7 first-half goals vs SonderjyskE's 0.5
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonLyngbyEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A Lyngby halftime lead and full-time win is possible but not strongly supported given their home draw tendency.
- Lyngby led at halftime in 36% of matches
- Lyngby have not won at home this season (3 draws)
- SonderjyskE have lost all away matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostLyngby/LyngbyEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches trend toward goals, especially with SonderjyskE's leaky defense, making over 2.5 goals plausible.
- Lyngby home matches average 2.67 total goals (4 scored, 4 conceded in 3 games)
- SonderjyskE away matches average 3.33 total goals (3 scored, 7 conceded in 3 games)
- SonderjyskE overall concede 2.57 goals per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score while SonderjyskE's defense is vulnerable, supporting both teams scoring.
- Lyngby scored in all 3 home matches this season
- SonderjyskE scored in 2 of 3 away matches
- SonderjyskE have conceded in every away match
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to see first-half goals, especially with SonderjyskE's early defensive lapses.
- Lyngby average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded
- SonderjyskE average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded
- SonderjyskE trailed at halftime in 33% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is less certain, but both teams' defensive issues could lead to multiple goals after the break.
- Lyngby average 1.0 second-half goals scored (total 1.7 - 0.7 first half)
- SonderjyskE average 0.8 second-half goals scored (total 1.3 - 0.5 first half)
- SonderjyskE concede heavily overall
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages suggest around 9-10 corners, making over 9.5 a coin flip.
- Lyngby average 5.6 corners per match, SonderjyskE 3.7
- Lyngby home matches average 5.3 corners for, 5.3 against (from recent data)
- SonderjyskE away matches average 3.3 corners for, 6.0 against
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Total shots on target could exceed 8.5 given both teams' attacking intent and SonderjyskE's defensive weakness.
- Lyngby average 4.3 shots on target per match
- SonderjyskE average 3.9 shots on target per match
- SonderjyskE concede many shots on target (opponents average 5.7)
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined card averages suggest over 3.5 cards is likely, especially with SonderjyskE's disciplinary issues.
- Lyngby average 2.1 yellow cards per match
- SonderjyskE average 1.7 yellow cards per match
- SonderjyskE have received red cards in recent matches
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%