Legia Warsaw1Widzew Lodz1

HT 1–1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–736%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 50%–50%ShotsShots 15–12On targetOn target 3–2CornersCorners 4–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 00:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Legia Warsaw are strong favourites at home against Widzew Lodz, with a +6-point edge on the moneyline (1.78) and a +15-point edge on over 1.5 second-half goals (2.50).

Widzew's confirmed midfield absence and Legia's unbeaten record support the home win, but avoid the -1 handicap and high-goal markets.

Context

Legia Warsaw are second in the Ekstraklasa with 15 points from seven matches, one point behind Lech Poznan.
Legia Warsaw have won four and drawn three in the league this season, including a 5-0 home win over Radomiak Radom on 14 August and a 3-1 home win over Zaglebie Lubin on 2 August. Their only dropped home points came in a 1-1 draw with Slask Wroclaw on 28 August. This strong home form and unbeaten run make them clear favourites, but the recent draw shows they can be held at home.
- Legia Warsaw are unbeaten in the league with 4 wins and 3 draws from 7 matches.
- They are second with 15 points, one behind leaders Lech Poznan.
- At home they have 2 wins and 1 draw, scoring 9 goals and conceding 2.
Widzew Lodz midfielder J. Shehu has started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
Shehu is confirmed unavailable for the trip to Legia Warsaw while he completes another rehabilitation stage for a muscle injury. Widzew will have to organise their central midfield without him, and the reporting indicates he is not expected back until after the September–October international break.
- WidzewToMy reported that Shehu remained unavailable while completing a further stage of rehabilitation for a muscle injury.
- Łódzki Sport independently reported on 8 September that Shehu was progressing through another rehabilitation stage.
- WidzewToMy said Aleksandar Vuković was expected to regain Shehu only after the September–October international break.
- J. Shehu started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 00:54 · Europe/BucharestWidzewToMy – squad situation improveswww.widzewtomy.net · 8 Sep 2026Łódzki Sport – Widzew players gradually return to fitnesslodzkisport.pl · 8 Sep 2026
Widzew Lodz are 13th in the Ekstraklasa with 7 points from 7 matches, only two points above the relegation line.
Widzew Lodz have drawn four and lost two of their seven league matches, with their only win coming away at Jagiellonia on 9 August. Away from home they have taken 5 points from 3 games, including a 3-3 draw at Slask Wroclaw on 22 August. Their away resilience could make this match closer than the table suggests, but their overall lack of wins is a concern.
- Widzew Lodz have 1 win, 4 draws, and 2 losses in the league.
- They are unbeaten away with 1 win and 2 draws in 3 away matches.
- Their away record includes a 3-3 draw at Slask Wroclaw on 22 August.
Legia Warsaw attacker A. Čolak trained in a protective mask on 8 September after a pre-season cheekbone fracture.
Čolak has resumed protected training but remains under medical observation, so his availability for the Widzew match is still uncertain. Legia's attacking selection will not be settled until the squad is named.
- Legia.net reported that Čolak trained in a special protective mask on 8 September.
- The report said his pre-season collision caused a cheekbone fracture and that he remained under medical and physiotherapy observation.
To watchSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 00:54 · Europe/BucharestLegia.net – Čolak trains in a masklegia.net · 8 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Legia's superior league position, unbeaten home record, and strong H2H advantage at home make them clear favourites.
- Legia are 2nd with 15 points from 7 games (W4 D3 L0), while Widzew are 13th with 7 points (W1 D4 L2).
- Legia's home record this season: W2 D1 L0, 9 goals scored, 2 conceded in 3 matches.
- Widzew's away record: W1 D2 L0, 5 goals scored, 3 conceded in 3 matches.
- H2H last 5: Legia won 3, drew 1, lost 1; at Legia's home, Legia won both recent meetings (1-0 and 2-1).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLegia WarsawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Legia's unbeaten league record and strong home form make a home defeat highly unlikely.
- Legia have not lost in 7 league matches this season (W4 D3).
- Legia have not lost at home in 3 matches (W2 D1).
- Widzew have only 1 win in 7 league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLegia Warsaw or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Legia's home advantage and H2H edge give them a slight first-half edge, but Widzew's strong first-half record makes this uncertain.
- Legia lead at half-time in 40% of matches, trail in 40%, and draw in 20%.
- Widzew lead at half-time in 47% of matches, trail in 13%, and draw in 40%.
- H2H last 5: Legia led at half-time in 2 matches, Widzew in 1, and 2 were level.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostLegia WarsawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Legia's ability to control matches from the first half at home supports this outcome, though Widzew's resilience lowers confidence.
- Legia have led at half-time and won the match in 3 of 7 league games.
- Widzew have trailed at half-time and lost the match in 1 of 7 league games.
- H2H last 5: Legia led at half-time and won in 2 matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostLegia Warsaw/Legia WarsawEstimated chance35%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have positive attacking output and Legia's home matches average 3.7 total goals, supporting over 2.5.
- Legia average 1.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match overall; at home they score 3.0 and concede 0.7 per match.
- Widzew average 1.6 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match; away they score 1.7 and concede 1.0 per match.
- Combined average total goals in Legia matches: 3.0; in Widzew matches: 2.7.
- H2H last 5 meetings: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly find the net and neither has a dominant defensive record, making BTTS likely.
- Legia have scored in all 7 league matches and conceded in 5 of 7.
- Widzew have scored in 6 of 7 league matches and conceded in 6 of 7.
- Legia's home matches: both teams scored in 2 of 3.
- Widzew's away matches: both teams scored in 2 of 3.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, and H2H history supports early goals.
- Legia average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded; 80% of their matches have had a first-half goal.
- Widzew average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded; 73% of their matches have had a first-half goal.
- H2H last 5: 4 of 5 had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring rates increase after the break, making over 1.5 second-half goals plausible.
- Legia average 1.2 second-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded per match.
- Widzew average 0.8 second-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match.
- Combined second-half average: 1.6 goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and Widzew's matches average over 11 total corners, making over 9.5 slightly likely.
- Legia average 4.7 corners per match and concede 4.3 opponent corners.
- Widzew average 5.2 corners per match and concede 5.9 opponent corners.
- Combined average corners in Legia matches: 9.0; in Widzew matches: 11.1.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Legia's high shot volume and Widzew's tendency to allow shots on target push the total above 8.5.
- Legia average 5.3 shots on target per match and concede 4.3 opponent shots on target.
- Widzew average 3.9 shots on target per match and concede 4.3 opponent shots on target.
- Combined average shots on target in Legia matches: 9.6; in Widzew matches: 8.2.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Widzew's high yellow card count and Legia's moderate discipline suggest a total around 4 cards, making over 3.5 a coin flip.
- Legia average 1.3 yellow cards per match and 0 red cards.
- Widzew average 2.7 yellow cards per match and 0.1 red cards.
- Combined average yellow cards in matches involving these teams: 4.0.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%