Hajduk Split1Slaven Koprivnica0

HT 1–0Sun 13 Sept 2026, 18:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–562%

Edges7–188%

PossPossession 68%–32%ShotsShots 9–7On targetOn target 1–2CornersCorners 3–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 17:53 · Europe/Bucharest

Hajduk are strong favourites and should win, but the odds offer no value.

The best edge is Both Teams to Score – No at 1.91 (estimated 60% vs implied 52.4%), backed by Slaven's zero away goals and Hajduk's solid defense. Avoid Over 2.5 goals and first-half goal markets, where the prices are too short.

Context

Hajduk Split are top of the HNL with 13 points from six matches, and their home record is two wins and one draw.
They have scored eight goals and conceded two in three home games, including a 4-0 win over NK Osijek on 23 August and a 2-0 win over NK Lokomotiva Zagreb on 31 August. This strong home form gives them a clear advantage against a Slaven Koprivnica side that has struggled away.
- Hajduk Split home record: 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, 8 goals for, 2 goals against.
- They beat NK Osijek 4-0 at home on 23 August 2026.
- They beat NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2-0 at home on 31 August 2026.
Slaven Koprivnica are eighth in the HNL with six points, and their away record is three losses from three matches.
They have conceded eight goals and failed to score in away matches against NK Osijek (0-3), Istra 1961 (0-3), and Dinamo Zagreb (0-2). Facing Hajduk Split, who have been strong at home, this away weakness could be decisive.
- Slaven Koprivnica away record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, 0 goals for, 8 goals against.
- Lost 0-3 at NK Osijek on 30 August 2026.
- Lost 0-3 at Istra 1961 on 15 August 2026.
- Lost 0-2 at Dinamo Zagreb on 31 July 2026.
The last two meetings between these teams at Hajduk Split ended in home wins.
Hajduk Split beat Slaven Koprivnica 2-0 on 7 February 2026 and 3-0 on 17 August 2025. These results suggest Hajduk Split have been comfortable at home in this fixture, though the most recent overall meeting was a 2-2 draw at Slaven Koprivnica on 17 April 2026.
- Hajduk Split 2-0 Slaven Koprivnica on 7 February 2026 (HNL).
- Hajduk Split 3-0 Slaven Koprivnica on 17 August 2025 (HNL).
- Most recent meeting: Slaven Koprivnica 2-2 Hajduk Split on 17 April 2026 (HNL).
Hajduk made major changes for the 8 September cup tie at Vardarac, giving limited-involvement players opportunities after the Rudeš league match.
The 2-0 cup win means Hajduk's regular starters had reduced midweek workload, so fatigue should be less of a factor than if a full-strength side had played. The rotation also means some fringe players gained match sharpness, but the cup lineup is not a reliable guide to Sunday's selection.
- Tportal reported before the Vardarac tie that Gonzalo García would make major changes and give opportunities to players with limited involvement.
- Hajduk confirmed a 2-0 win at Vardarac on 8 September and progress to the Croatian Cup round of 16.
ReportedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 17:52 · Europe/BucharestTportalwww.tportal.hr · 8 Sep 2026HNK Hajduk Splithajduk.hr · 9 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hajduk's superior league position, strong home form, and Slaven's poor away record make a home win highly likely.
- Hajduk Split are 1st with 13 points from 6 matches, while Slaven Koprivnica are 8th with 6 points.
- Hajduk have won 4 of their last 5 HNL matches, including a 4-0 home win over NK Osijek.
- Slaven have lost all 3 away league matches this season, conceding 8 goals and scoring none.
- Hajduk won the last home H2H 3-0 in August 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHajduk SplitEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hajduk's strong home form and Slaven's away struggles make a home win or draw very likely.
- Hajduk are unbeaten at home this season (2W, 1D).
- Slaven have not won away in the league this season (0W, 0D, 3L).
- Hajduk have lost only once in their last 15 matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHajduk Split or DrawEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hajduk's strong first-half performances and Slaven's tendency to trail at the break make a home half-time lead likely.
- Hajduk led at half-time in 67% of their last 15 matches.
- Slaven trailed at half-time in 47% of their last 15 matches.
- Hajduk average 0.9 first-half goals per match, while Slaven concede 1.0 first-half goals per match.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonHajduk SplitEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hajduk's tendency to lead at half-time and maintain their advantage makes a home HT/FT double plausible.
- Hajduk led at half-time in 67% of their last 15 matches.
- Hajduk won 4 of their last 5 HNL matches.
- Slaven trailed at half-time in 47% of their last 15 matches and lost 4 of their last 5 HNL matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonHajduk Split / Hajduk SplitEstimated chance50%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hajduk's high scoring rate and Slaven's defensive vulnerability suggest a match with over 2.5 goals.
- Hajduk average 2.3 goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- Slaven concede an average of 2.0 goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- Hajduk's home league matches have averaged 3.33 total goals this season.
- Slaven's away league matches have averaged 2.67 total goals this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Slaven's away scoring struggles and Hajduk's solid defense make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- Slaven have failed to score in all 3 away league matches this season.
- Hajduk have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 HNL matches.
- Hajduk have conceded only 0.7 goals per match on average in their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hajduk's defensive solidity and Slaven's away scoring drought support a home clean sheet.
- Hajduk have kept clean sheets in 3 of their last 5 HNL matches.
- Slaven have failed to score in all 3 away league matches this season.
- Hajduk's average goals conceded is 0.7 per match in their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonSlaven Koprivnica not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hajduk's tendency to score early and Slaven's first-half defensive weakness make a first-half goal likely.
- Hajduk average 0.9 first-half goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- Slaven concede an average of 1.0 first-half goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- Hajduk led at half-time in 67% of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hajduk's attacking output and Slaven's defensive lapses could lead to multiple second-half goals.
- Hajduk average 1.4 second-half goals per match (total 2.3 minus 0.9 first-half).
- Slaven concede an average of 1.0 second-half goals per match (total 2.0 minus 1.0 first-half).
- Hajduk's home league matches have seen 2.67 second-half goals on average.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hajduk's attacking style and Slaven's defensive posture may produce a high number of corners.
- Hajduk average 5.7 corners per match in their last 15 matches.
- Slaven average 3.3 corners per match in their last 15 matches.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams is 9.0.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hajduk's high corner count and Slaven's defensive pressure make over 5.5 home corners likely.
- Hajduk average 5.7 corners per match in their last 15 matches.
- Hajduk have won 7 corners in each of their last two home HNL matches.
- Slaven concede an average of 5.0 corners per away match this season.
BetBugs · Home CornerslostHajduk Split over 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hajduk's attacking volume and Slaven's defensive struggles could lead to a high number of shots on target.
- Hajduk average 6.2 shots on target per match in their last 15 matches.
- Slaven average 3.9 shots on target per match in their last 15 matches.
- Combined average shots on target in matches involving these teams is 10.1.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' disciplinary records suggest a match with over 3.5 cards.
- Hajduk average 1.9 yellow cards per match in their last 15 matches.
- Slaven average 1.8 yellow cards per match in their last 15 matches.
- Combined average yellow cards in matches involving these teams is 3.7.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%