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Predictions graded

Benfica3Gil Vicente1

HT 1–1Sun 13 Sept 2026, 17:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 64%–36%ShotsShots 17–4On targetOn target 5–2CornersCorners 14–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 01:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Benfica are strong favourites and should win comfortably, but the odds offer no value on the match winner or double chance.

The most actionable insight is to avoid backing Benfica at short prices; Over 2.5 goals is fairly priced, and a Benfica clean sheet is plausible but not a value bet.

Context

Benfica sit fourth with 10 points from four matches, having won three and drawn one.
Benfica have scored 14 goals in four league matches, including a 7-0 win at Casa Pia on 17 August and a 3-0 win at Maritimo on 5 September. Their average of 3.1 goals per game is the highest in the league. Gil Vicente have conceded only one goal in four matches, so this match tests whether Benfica's attack can break down a disciplined defence.
- Benfica have scored 14 goals in 4 league matches, averaging 3.1 per game.
- They won 7-0 at Casa Pia on 17 August and 3-0 at Maritimo on 5 September.
- Gil Vicente have conceded only 1 goal in 4 league matches.
Benfica right-back A. Bah has started all five recent fixtures with available lineups, but Marco Silva confirmed his injury forces a change on the right side of defence.
Bah's continued absence removes Benfica's regular right-back for the Gil Vicente match. Silva said the team had already adapted its defensive selection because of the injury, so the right side will be reshaped again. This can alter defensive coverage and attacking width on that flank, though the specific replacement is not yet confirmed.
- Marco Silva said Benfica would have to change the right side of defence because of Alexander Bah's injury.
- Silva said Bah's injury had already forced the team to adapt its defensive selection.
- A. Bah started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 01:46 · Europe/BucharestSL Benfica: Marco Silva preview of Moreirensewww.slbenfica.pt · 8 Sep 2026
Gil Vicente are sixth with 7 points from four matches, having won two, drawn one, and lost one.
Gil Vicente have conceded only one goal in four league matches, keeping clean sheets against Casa Pia, Rio Ave, and Famalicao. Their only away match was a 0-0 draw at Famalicao on 30 August. Benfica's attack is potent, but Gil Vicente's defensive organisation could limit their chances.
- Gil Vicente have conceded 1 goal in 4 league matches.
- They kept clean sheets against Casa Pia, Rio Ave, and Famalicao.
- Their only away match was a 0-0 draw at Famalicao on 30 August.
The last five meetings between these teams have all been in the Primeira Liga.
Benfica have won four of the last five meetings, including a 5-1 home win on 28 September 2024 and a 2-1 away win on 2 March 2026. Gil Vicente's only win in that span was a 2-1 home victory on 26 September 2025. This history suggests Benfica have a clear edge in this fixture.
- Benfica won 5-1 at home on 28 September 2024.
- Benfica won 2-1 away on 2 March 2026.
- Gil Vicente won 2-1 at home on 26 September 2025.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Benfica

1.14fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 88%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's superior form, home advantage, and dominant H2H record make them clear favourites.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Benfica or Draw

1.02fair 1.09

BetBugs 92% · Market 98%

−6.0ppshort

Benfica's unbeaten run and Gil Vicente's poor away form make a Benfica loss very unlikely.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Benfica

1.49fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 67%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's tendency to start strongly gives them an edge in the first half.

HT/FTlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Benfica at half-time / Benfica at full-time

1.54fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 65%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's ability to lead at half-time and maintain their advantage makes HT/FT Benfica/Benfica a strong possibility.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.45fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Benfica average 3.1 goals per game and Gil Vicente concede regularly, supporting a high-scoring match.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.50fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Gil Vicente's away scoring struggles and Benfica's defensive strength make a clean sheet likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.20fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's strong first-half scoring record suggests at least one goal before the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's superior form, home advantage, and dominant H2H record make them clear favourites.
- Benfica are unbeaten in their last 15 matches in all competitions, with 12 wins and 3 draws.
- Benfica have won 4 of their last 5 home matches against Gil Vicente, scoring 12 goals in those games.
- Gil Vicente have lost 2 of their last 4 league matches and have only 1 away point this season.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBenficaEstimated chance78%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's unbeaten run and Gil Vicente's poor away form make a Benfica loss very unlikely.
- Benfica have not lost in their last 15 matches.
- Gil Vicente have won only 2 of their last 10 away matches in all competitions.
- Benfica have won 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBenfica or DrawEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's tendency to start strongly gives them an edge in the first half.
- Benfica have led at half-time in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Gil Vicente have trailed at half-time in only 2 of their last 15 matches.
- Benfica have scored first in 12 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostBenficaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Benfica's ability to lead at half-time and maintain their advantage makes HT/FT Benfica/Benfica a strong possibility.
- Benfica have led at half-time and won the match in 9 of their last 15 matches.
- Gil Vicente have not won a match after trailing at half-time in their last 15 matches.
- Benfica have won 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostBenfica/BenficaEstimated chance50%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's high-scoring attack and Gil Vicente's defensive vulnerabilities should produce multiple goals.
- Benfica average 3.1 goals per game in their last 15 matches.
- Benfica have scored at least 2 goals in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Gil Vicente have conceded 1 goal per game on average, but Benfica's attack is significantly stronger than their typical opponents.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Gil Vicente's away scoring struggles and Benfica's defensive strength make a clean sheet likely.
- Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 15 matches.
- Gil Vicente have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Benfica's home defensive record is solid, conceding only 3 goals in 2 home league games this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's strong first-half scoring record suggests at least one goal before the break.
- Benfica average 1.4 first-half goals per game in their last 15 matches.
- Benfica have led at half-time in 67% of their recent matches.
- Gil Vicente have conceded first-half goals in 4 of their last 6 matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's second-half scoring output could push the total over 1.5 goals after the break.
- Benfica average 1.7 second-half goals per game in their last 15 matches.
- Gil Vicente have conceded 0.6 second-half goals per game on average.
- Benfica have scored in the second half in 13 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Gil Vicente's away scoring struggles give Benfica a decent chance of a clean sheet.
- Benfica have kept a clean sheet in 5 of their last 15 matches.
- Gil Vicente have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 away matches.
- Benfica's home defensive record is solid, conceding only 3 goals in 2 home league games this season.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostGil Vicente not to scoreEstimated chance45%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's attacking style and Gil Vicente's defensive approach should generate a high corner count.
- Benfica average 7.3 corners per game in their last 15 matches.
- Gil Vicente average 5 corners per game, but Benfica's attacking pressure often forces opponents to concede corners.
- In Benfica's last 5 home matches, total corners have averaged 10.2.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's high shot volume and accuracy should lead to a high total shots on target.
- Benfica average 9 shots on target per game in their last 15 matches.
- Gil Vicente average 3.9 shots on target per game, but Benfica's dominance should increase their own total.
- Benfica have had at least 8 shots on target in 10 of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance60%