Primeira LigaFull time

Predictions graded

Sporting Lisbon3FC Gil Vicente0

HT 2–0Sat 16 May 2026, 19:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges7–278%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 15–10On targetOn target 5–1CornersCorners 6–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 00:43 · Europe/Bucharest

Sporting Lisbon are heavy favorites and should win, but the odds offer no value.

The best betting edge lies in goals: back Sporting over 2.5 team goals at 1.85 and over 3.5 total goals at 2.10, leveraging their prolific home attack and Gil Vicente's away scoring consistency.

Context

Sporting are unbeaten in the last 8 H2Hs (6 wins, 2 draws).
- Gil Vicente failed to score in 4 of those 8 meetings.
- Recent H2H results include a 4-0 Sporting win and two 1-0/2-1 victories.
Sporting average 3.0 goals per home match in the Primeira Liga.
- They scored 2+ goals in 12 of 16 home fixtures.
- In their last five home matches, they scored 5, 2, 4, 1, and 3 goals.
Gil Vicente scored in 13 of 16 away league matches this season.
- They conceded in 13 of those 16 away trips.
- Their away record is 4 wins, 8 draws, and 4 losses.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting's dominant home form and strong H2H control, combined with Gil Vicente's mediocre away record, make a home win highly likely.
- Sporting Lisbon home record: 12W-2D-2L, 48 goals scored, 11 conceded in 16 matches this season.
- Gil Vicente away record: 4W-8D-4L, 19 goals scored, 18 conceded in 16 matches.
- H2H last 5: Sporting unbeaten (3W-2D), including a 4-0 away win and a 2-1 home win.
- Sporting Lisbon overall form: 24W-7D-2L, +62 goal difference; Gil Vicente: 13W-11D-9L, +12.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSporting LisbonEstimated chance72%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Sporting's fortress-like home form and Gil Vicente's struggles on the road, a Sporting win or draw is almost certain.
- Sporting Lisbon have lost only 2 of 16 home matches this season.
- Gil Vicente have won only 4 of 16 away matches.
- H2H: Sporting unbeaten in last 8 meetings (6W-2D).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonSporting Lisbon or DrawEstimated chance92%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting's superior first-half performance at home and Gil Vicente's vulnerability early in away games favor a halftime lead for the hosts.
- Sporting Lisbon led at halftime in 40% of all matches, and in 50% of home matches.
- Gil Vicente trailed at halftime in 20% of all matches, and in 25% of away matches.
- H2H: Sporting led at halftime in 2 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonSporting LisbonEstimated chance55%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting's high-scoring home games and the historical tendency for goals in this fixture support over 2.5 goals.
- Sporting Lisbon home matches average 3.69 total goals (48 scored, 11 conceded in 16 games).
- Gil Vicente away matches average 2.31 total goals (19 scored, 18 conceded in 16 games).
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 matches had over 2.5 goals (1-1, 2-1, 4-0).
- Sporting Lisbon last 5 home matches: 4 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Gil Vicente's consistent away scoring and Sporting's occasional defensive lapses at home suggest both teams are likely to score.
- Gil Vicente scored in 13 of 16 away matches this season.
- Sporting Lisbon kept only 5 clean sheets in 16 home matches.
- H2H: Both teams scored in 2 of last 5 meetings.
- Gil Vicente failed to score in only 3 away matches all season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting's home defensive record is not watertight, and Gil Vicente's away scoring consistency makes a home clean sheet unlikely.
- Sporting Lisbon conceded in 11 of 16 home matches this season.
- Gil Vicente failed to score in only 3 of 16 away matches.
- H2H: Gil Vicente scored in 2 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFC Gil Vicente to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting's prolific home attack, averaging 3 goals per game, makes over 1.5 home goals a strong expectation.
- Sporting Lisbon scored 2+ goals in 12 of 16 home matches this season.
- Sporting Lisbon average 3.0 goals per home match.
- H2H: Sporting scored 2+ in 3 of last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Home Goals TotalwonSporting Lisbon over 1.5Estimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sporting's tendency to start fast at home and Gil Vicente's occasional early concessions point to a first-half goal.
- Sporting Lisbon first half goals at home: 0.9 average per match overall, but 1.2 in last 5 home matches.
- Gil Vicente first half goals conceded away: 0.4 average, but 0.6 in last 5 away matches.
- H2H: 3 of last 5 meetings had a first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 10 corners in their respective home/away splits, suggesting a moderate chance of exceeding 9.5 corners.
- Sporting Lisbon home matches average 10.2 total corners (5.1 for, 5.1 against).
- Gil Vicente away matches average 10.4 total corners (5.2 for, 5.2 against).
- Last 5 H2H: average 9.6 corners per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages from both teams' home/away splits hover around 4, making over 3.5 cards a marginal but plausible outcome.
- Sporting Lisbon home matches average 3.6 cards (1.8 for, 1.8 against).
- Gil Vicente away matches average 4.2 cards (2.1 for, 2.1 against).
- Last 5 H2H: average 4.0 cards per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

2W · 2D · 1W

D1-1GIL VicentevSporting CPJan 2, 2026PRI

L2-1Sporting CPvGIL VicenteMay 4, 2025PRI

W0-1GIL VicentevSporting CPFeb 27, 2025TAÇ

D0-0GIL VicentevSporting CPDec 22, 2024PRI

W0-4GIL VicentevSporting CPApr 12, 2024PRI

Sporting Lisbon: 3 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Primeira Liga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Sporting Lisbon Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)	33	24	7	2	86-24	79	WWDDL
6	FC Gil Vicente	33	13	11	9	47-35	50	LDWLD

29pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Sporting Lisbon

W4-1Rio AveMay 11PRI

W5-1GuimaraesMay 4PRI

D2-2TondelaApr 29PRI

D1-1AVSApr 26PRI

D0-0FC PortoApr 22TAÇ

L1-2BenficaApr 19PRI

D0-0ArsenalApr 15UEF

W1-0EstrelaApr 11PRI

L0-1ArsenalApr 7UEF

W4-2Santa ClaraApr 3PRI

W4-1AlvercaMar 22PRI

L0-3Bodo/GlimtMar 11UEF

D2-2SC BragaMar 7PRI

W1-0FC PortoMar 3TAÇ

W3-0EstorilFeb 27PRI

FC Gil Vicente

L1-3AroucaMay 11PRI

D0-0Rio AveMay 3PRI

W2-1Casa PiaApr 27PRI

L0-1GuimaraesApr 18PRI

D2-2TondelaApr 13PRI

W3-0AVSApr 3PRI

L0-1Santa ClaraMar 21PRI

D2-2AlvercaMar 14PRI

D2-2EstrelaMar 8PRI

L1-2BenficaMar 2PRI

L1-3EstorilFeb 22PRI

W2-1SC BragaFeb 14PRI

W2-1MoreirenseFeb 7PRI

W5-0FamalicaoFeb 1PRI

L0-3FC PortoJan 26PRI

Squad & Injuries

Sporting Lisbon

37 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders14

Goalkeeper4

FC Gil Vicente

30 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Sporting Lisbon3FC Gil Vicente0

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Over 3.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Sporting Lisbon

Sporting Lisbon or Draw

Sporting Lisbon

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result3 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Sporting Lisbon

FC Gil Vicente

Squad & Injuries

Sporting Lisbon

FC Gil Vicente