Benfica2Estoril Praia1

HT 1–0Mon 31 Aug 2026, 19:15 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 66%–34%ShotsShots 25–4On targetOn target 8–2CornersCorners 9–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 08:54 · Europe/Bucharest

Benfica are overwhelming favourites and should win comfortably, but the odds are too short to offer value.

The only slight edges are on Both Teams to Score – No (1.67) and Over 1.5 first-half goals (1.78), both with medium confidence. Avoid the main markets due to negative expected value.

Context

Benfica sit seventh in the Primeira Liga with four points from two matches, having scored nine goals and conceded two.
Their recent league results show a 7-0 win at Casa Pia on 17 August and a 2-2 home draw with Academico Viseu on 9 August. Across all competitions this season they average 3.1 goals per game and 8.3 shots on target. Estoril have conceded five goals in three league matches, so Benfica's finishing could create early chances.
- Benfica beat Casa Pia 7-0 away on 17 August 2026.
- Benfica drew 2-2 at home with Academico Viseu on 9 August 2026.
- Benfica average 3.1 goals per game this season.
Estoril are 15th in the Primeira Liga with one point from three matches, having scored one goal and conceded five.
They lost 2-0 at home to Rio Ave on 22 August and 2-0 away to Nacional on 16 August. Their only point came from a 1-1 home draw with Famalicao on 7 August. This poor start leaves them near the relegation zone and facing a Benfica side that has scored nine goals in two league games.
- Estoril lost 2-0 at home to Rio Ave on 22 August 2026.
- Estoril lost 2-0 away to Nacional on 16 August 2026.
- Estoril have scored one goal in three league matches.
The most recent meeting between these teams was on 16 May 2026, when Benfica won 3-1 at Estoril.
Benfica have won four of the last five meetings, with Estoril's only win in that span coming in May 2025. The last two matches both ended 3-1 to Benfica. This consistent record suggests Benfica know how to break down Estoril's defence.
- Benfica won 3-1 away at Estoril on 16 May 2026.
- Benfica won 3-1 at home against Estoril on 3 January 2026.
- Benfica have won four of the last five head-to-head matches.
Benfica midfielder F. Aursnes missed the trip to Denmark with a right-ankle sprain and has not started any of the last five available lineups.
His availability against Estoril depends on treatment and training response, leaving Benfica's midfield options uncertain after the midweek European away trip. The club has not confirmed a return date, so his absence would reduce rotation options without a clear replacement named.
- Benfica confirmed on 26 August that F. Aursnes did not travel to Denmark because of a right-ankle sprain.
- A Bola reported on 28 August that his availability for Estoril depends on his response to treatment and training.
- F. Aursnes started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
To watchSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 15:28 · Europe/BucharestSL Benfica: Aarhus-Benfica match centrewww.slbenfica.pt · 27 Aug 2026A Bola: two factors for Benfica-Estorilwww.abola.pt · 29 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Benfica

1.14fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 87.7%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's dominant home H2H record and superior recent form make them clear favourites, but the market has already priced this in with odds of 1.14.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Benfica at half-time / Benfica at full-time

1.45fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's pattern of leading at half-time and winning matches supports a HT/FT double, but the odds of 1.45 imply a 69% probability, well above our 55% estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.29fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Benfica's high-scoring attack and Estoril's defensive struggles point to multiple goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's dominant H2H record and superior recent form make them clear favorites.
- Benfica have won the last three home league meetings with Estoril: 3-1, 3-0, 3-1.
- Benfica average 3.1 goals per match in recent form, while Estoril average 0.8 goals per match.
- Estoril have lost their last two league matches and sit 15th with 1 point from 3 games.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBenficaEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's tendency to lead early and Estoril's habit of trailing at the break favor a home half-time lead.
- Benfica led at half-time in 67% of their recent matches.
- Estoril trailed at half-time in 62% of their recent matches.
- Benfica scored first-half goals in 4 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonBenficaEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's pattern of leading at half-time and winning matches supports a HT/FT double.
- Benfica led at half-time in 67% of recent matches and won 73% of them.
- Estoril trailed at half-time in 62% of recent matches and lost 69% of them.
- Benfica have won the last three home H2H meetings, leading at half-time in two.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonBenfica/BenficaEstimated chance55%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's high-scoring attack and Estoril's defensive struggles point to multiple goals.
- Benfica's recent matches average 4.2 total goals (3.1 for, 1.1 against).
- Estoril's recent matches average 2.3 total goals (0.8 for, 1.5 against).
- The last three home H2H meetings produced 4, 3, and 4 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Estoril's poor attacking output makes it unlikely they will score against Benfica.
- Estoril have scored only 1 goal in their last 3 league matches.
- Benfica kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, Estoril scored in only 2 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Estoril's attacking struggles and Benfica's defensive strength support a home clean sheet.
- Benfica have kept clean sheets in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Estoril have failed to score in 2 of their last 3 league matches.
- Benfica's home defensive record is solid, conceding 1.1 goals per match on average.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostEstoril Praia not to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's strong first-half scoring and Estoril's early defensive lapses suggest first-half goals.
- Benfica average 1.5 first-half goals per match.
- Estoril concede an average of 1.0 first-half goals per match.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, first-half goals averaged 1.6.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's continued attacking pressure in the second half often leads to more goals.
- Benfica average 1.6 second-half goals per match.
- Estoril concede an average of 0.5 second-half goals per match.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, second-half goals averaged 1.8.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's high corner count and Estoril's tendency to concede corners could push the total over.
- Benfica average 7.6 corners per match, while Estoril average 4.7 corners per match.
- Combined average corners in Benfica matches: 11.3; in Estoril matches: 9.4.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total corners averaged 10.2.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's high shot volume and Estoril's defensive vulnerability suggest many shots on target.
- Benfica average 8.3 shots on target per match.
- Estoril average 3.6 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target in Benfica matches: 11.9; in Estoril matches: 7.2.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Estoril's higher card count and the competitive nature of the match could lead to more cards.
- Benfica average 1.4 yellow cards per match, Estoril average 2.1 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average cards in Benfica matches: 3.5; in Estoril matches: 3.6.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total cards averaged 4.2.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance52%