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Predictions graded

CSKA 1948 Sofia2Dunav Ruse1

HT 1–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–280%

Edges7–188%

PossPossession 56%–44%ShotsShots 12–6On targetOn target 5–5CornersCorners 7–7

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 9 Sep 2026, 23:59 · Europe/Bucharest

CSKA 1948 Sofia are strong favorites at home against Dunav Ruse, but the outright win offers no betting value.

The best edges are Over 1.5 second-half goals (+15.6 points) and Both Teams to Score 'No' (+6.8 points), while first-half goals and Asian Handicap markets should be avoided.

Context

CSKA 1948 sit 4th in the First League with 16 points from 8 matches. Their home form has been a key part of that start.
They have won all four home games, beating Lokomotiv Plovdiv 2-0 on 28 August, Cherno More Varna 4-1 on 14 August, Arda Kardzhali 2-1 on 31 July, and Botev Vratsa 2-1 on 25 July. That run shows they are comfortable at home and can score multiple goals. Dunav Ruse have lost three of four away matches, so this home strength is likely to matter.
- CSKA 1948 have won all 4 home league matches this season.
- They scored 10 goals and conceded 3 in those home games.
- Dunav Ruse have lost 3 of 4 away matches, conceding 8 goals.
Dunav Ruse are in the relegation group with 4 points, four points behind the safety line. Their recent form has been poor.
They have lost six of eight league games, including a 1-0 home defeat to Slavia Sofia on 7 September and a 3-1 away loss to Cherno More Varna on 21 August. That poor run means they need points, but facing a team with a perfect home record makes that task harder. Their away record of one win and three losses also shows they struggle on the road.
- Dunav Ruse are 13th with 4 points from 8 matches.
- They have lost 6 of 8 league games.
- Their away record is 1 win and 3 losses, with 5 goals scored and 8 conceded.
CSKA 1948 average 0.5 first-half goals and lead at half-time in 21% of matches. Dunav Ruse average 0.3 first-half goals and trail at half-time in 40%.
The home team's first-half scoring edge could put Dunav Ruse under early pressure. Dunav Ruse have conceded 0.5 first-half goals on average, so an early CSKA 1948 goal is possible. However, these are small samples and half-time leads do not always decide the final result.
- CSKA 1948 average 0.5 first-half goals and lead at half-time in 21% of matches.
- Dunav Ruse average 0.3 first-half goals and trail at half-time in 40% of matches.
- Dunav Ruse concede 0.5 first-half goals on average.
CSKA 1948 head coach Ognian Mladenov, appointed on 9 September 2026, takes charge for the first time.
The home side's selection, tactical structure and in-game management now fall under a newly appointed head coach with no prior match in charge. This immediate change introduces uncertainty about how CSKA 1948 will set up and respond during the game.
- CSKA 1948 announced on 7 September that it had parted company with head coach Aleksandar Aleksandrov.
- BNT reported on 9 September that Ognian Mladenov, previously CSKA 1948’s assistant coach, had been appointed head coach.
ConfirmedSources checked 9 Sep 2026, 23:57 · Europe/BucharestFC CSKA 1948cska1948.bg · 7 Sep 2026BNT Newsbntnews.bg · 9 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

CSKA 1948 Sofia

1.43fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 70%

0.0ppshort

CSKA 1948's perfect home record and Dunav's poor away form make a home win highly likely.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

CSKA 1948 Sofia or Draw

1.11fair 1.11

BetBugs 90% · Market 90%

0.0ppshort

CSKA 1948's strong home form and Dunav's struggles make a home win or draw very likely.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

CSKA 1948 Sofia

1.79fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 56%

0.0ppshort

CSKA 1948's home first-half dominance and Dunav's poor away first halves make a home lead at the break likely.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

CSKA 1948 Sofia at half-time / CSKA 1948 Sofia at full-time

2.00fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 50%

0.0ppshort

CSKA 1948's strong home form and Dunav's away struggles make a home win at both half-time and full-time plausible.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

CSKA 1948's high home scoring and Dunav's away defensive weakness support Over 2.5, but the odds already reflect this.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

CSKA 1948 tends to score early at home, but the odds heavily favor Over 0.5, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA 1948's perfect home record and Dunav's poor away form make a home win highly likely.
- CSKA 1948 home record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses, 10 goals scored, 3 conceded
- Dunav away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 3 losses, 5 goals scored, 8 conceded
- CSKA 1948 overall points: 16 vs Dunav 4
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCSKA 1948 SofiaEstimated chance70%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA 1948's strong home form and Dunav's struggles make a home win or draw very likely.
- CSKA 1948 home record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses
- Dunav away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 3 losses
- CSKA 1948 overall points: 16 vs Dunav 4
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCSKA 1948 Sofia or DrawEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA 1948's home first-half dominance and Dunav's poor away first halves make a home lead at the break likely.
- CSKA 1948 home first half record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses
- Dunav away first half record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 3 losses
- CSKA 1948 overall first half leading percentage: 21%
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonCSKA 1948 SofiaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
CSKA 1948's strong home form and Dunav's away struggles make a home win at both half-time and full-time plausible.
- CSKA 1948 home record: 4 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses
- Dunav away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 3 losses
- CSKA 1948 home first half record: 2 wins, 2 draws, 0 losses
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonCSKA 1948 Sofia / CSKA 1948 SofiaEstimated chance50%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA 1948's high scoring at home and Dunav's defensive weaknesses suggest over 2.5 goals.
- CSKA 1948 home average goals: 2.5 per game (10 in 4)
- Dunav away average goals conceded: 2.0 per game (8 in 4)
- CSKA 1948 overall average goals: 1.9 per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA 1948's solid home defense and Dunav's inconsistent away scoring make a clean sheet for the home side likely.
- CSKA 1948 home clean sheets: 2 in 4 matches
- Dunav away failed to score: 1 in 4 matches
- CSKA 1948 home goals conceded: 0.75 per game
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA 1948 tends to score early at home, and Dunav concedes early away, making a first-half goal likely.
- CSKA 1948 first half goals at home: 1.0 per game (4 in 4)
- Dunav first half goals conceded away: 1.0 per game (4 in 4)
- CSKA 1948 overall first half goals: 0.5 per game
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
CSKA 1948's strong second-half scoring at home and Dunav's defensive lapses suggest over 1.5 second-half goals.
- CSKA 1948 second half goals at home: 1.5 per game (6 in 4)
- Dunav second half goals conceded away: 1.0 per game (4 in 4)
- CSKA 1948 overall second half goals: 1.4 per game
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average a high number of corners, suggesting over 9.5 corners is likely.
- CSKA 1948 average corners: 6.5 per game
- Dunav average corners: 7.0 per game
- Combined average corners: 13.5 per game
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average over 2 yellow cards per game, making over 3.5 cards likely.
- CSKA 1948 average yellow cards: 2.0 per game
- Dunav average yellow cards: 2.3 per game
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.3 per game
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%