Cordoba0Almeria2

HT 0–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–564%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 59%–41%ShotsShots 21–4On targetOn target 4–2CornersCorners 9–0

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 00:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Almería to win at odds around 2.75 (edge +6 points) or the double chance Draw/Almería at 1.57 (+4 points).

Avoid Over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes, as the market overprices those outcomes relative to our model.

Context

Cordoba are 19th in La Liga 2 with three points from four matches, sitting in the relegation zone.
They have lost three of their four league games, including a 3-2 defeat at Sabadell on 7 September and a 3-1 home loss to Granada on 30 August. Their only win came at home against Girona on 21 August. With the relegation line at 19th, this match is an early chance to climb out of the bottom four.
- Cordoba are 19th with 3 points from 4 matches, described as 'Relegation'.
- They lost 3-2 at Sabadell on 7 September and 3-1 at home to Granada on 30 August.
- Their only win was 2-1 at home to Girona on 21 August.
Cordoba have not repeated a league XI through four rounds, with no defender completing all 360 minutes and 10 goals conceded.
The unsettled back line and goalkeeper rotation can disrupt defensive organisation and set-piece assignments against Almeria's attack. The linked analysis sees Almeria as the likely match winner and over 2.5 goals, reflecting Cordoba's defensive instability. However, the report is based on early-season rotation and may not capture a settled unit by kickoff.
- AS reported that Córdoba had not repeated an XI in their first four league matches.
- The report said no Córdoba defender had completed all 360 league minutes.
- AS reported that Ania described the 10 goals conceded in four league matches as too many.
ReportedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 00:18 · Europe/BucharestAS: Córdoba's unresolved defensive issueas.com · 8 Sep 2026
Almeria are 12th with six points from four matches, but all their points have come at home.
They lost 1-0 at Sabadell on 29 August and 1-0 at Tenerife on 23 August, failing to score in either match. Their two wins were at home against Cadiz and Eldense. This away form suggests they may struggle to create chances at Cordoba.
- Almeria's away record: 0 wins, 0 draws, 2 losses, 0 goals for, 2 goals against.
- They lost 1-0 at Sabadell on 29 August and 1-0 at Tenerife on 23 August.
- Their home wins were 3-2 vs Cadiz and 3-0 vs Eldense.
The teams met in a friendly on 7 August 2026, with Almeria winning 4-0.
That match was a friendly, so its relevance is limited. In their last league meetings, Cordoba won 2-1 at home in February 2026 and drew 1-1 at home in October 2025. The friendly result may not reflect current league form.
- Friendly on 7 August 2026: Cordoba 0-4 Almeria.
- League on 21 February 2026: Almeria 2-1 Cordoba (Cordoba away).
- League on 19 October 2025: Cordoba 1-1 Almeria.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.60fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

Cordoba's league matches average 4.25 total goals and they have conceded 10 in 4 games, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.53fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in 3 of 4 league matches, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Combined first-half goal average is 1.15 per match, but the odds imply a much higher probability than our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result6 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Almeria's superior overall form and H2H edge outweigh their poor away record, while Cordoba's defensive instability makes them vulnerable.
- Almeria away record this season: 0W 0D 2L, 0 goals scored, 2 conceded
- Cordoba home record this season: 1W 0D 1L, 3 goals scored, 4 conceded
- H2H last 5: Almeria won 2, Cordoba won 2, 1 draw; Almeria won the most recent friendly 4-0
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAlmeriaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cordoba's poor form and defensive issues make them unlikely to win, so backing Almeria or draw covers the most probable outcomes.
- Cordoba have lost 3 of 4 league matches this season
- Almeria have won 2 of 4 league matches this season
- H2H last 5: no draw in last 3 meetings, but overall 1 draw
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or AlmeriaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often go into half-time level, so a draw at the break is a plausible outcome.
- Cordoba have led at half-time in 20% of recent matches, trailed in 20%, drawn in 60%
- Almeria have led at half-time in 20% of recent matches, trailed in 27%, drawn in 53%
- Both teams have a high percentage of first-half draws
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Almeria's stronger overall form and Cordoba's defensive fatigue could lead to Almeria winning the second half.
- Almeria have a better second-half goal difference in recent matches
- Cordoba have conceded more goals in the second half in recent matches
- Almeria's superior squad depth may show late in the game
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonAlmeriaEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an Almeria win is a plausible sequence given Cordoba's tendency to start level and Almeria's stronger finish.
- Cordoba have drawn at half-time in 60% of recent matches
- Almeria have won 2 of 4 league matches this season
- H2H last 5: Almeria won 2 matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/AlmeriaEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Almeria winning both halves is unlikely given their away struggles, but Cordoba's defensive issues make it a low-probability possibility.
- Almeria have won both halves in only 1 of their last 5 matches
- Cordoba have lost both halves in 2 of their last 5 matches
- Almeria's away form is poor (0 wins in 2 away matches)
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostAlmeriaEstimated chance15%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Cordoba rarely lead at half-time, so backing Almeria or a draw covers the most likely first-half outcomes.
- Cordoba have led at half-time in only 20% of recent matches
- Almeria have led at half-time in 20% and drawn in 53%
- Combined probability of Almeria leading or drawing at half-time is high
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or AlmeriaEstimated chance65%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Cordoba's leaky defense and high-scoring games suggest a good chance of at least three goals, especially with Almeria's attacking options returning.
- Cordoba league matches average 4.25 total goals (17 goals in 4 games)
- Almeria league matches average 2.5 total goals (10 goals in 4 games)
- Cordoba have conceded 10 goals in 4 league matches
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score, and Cordoba's defensive fragility makes it likely Almeria will find the net as well.
- Cordoba have scored in 3 of 4 league matches (7 goals total)
- Almeria have scored in 3 of 4 league matches (6 goals total)
- Cordoba have conceded in all 4 league matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making a first-half goal likely.
- Cordoba average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.7 against in recent matches
- Almeria average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.4 against in recent matches
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.15 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half goals are common in Cordoba matches, but Almeria's lower second-half scoring makes this less certain.
- Cordoba's recent matches have seen 2.3 second-half goals on average
- Almeria's recent matches have seen 1.4 second-half goals on average
- Cordoba's defensive issues often lead to late goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams scoring in the first half is less common than a single goal or no goals, so 'No' is the safer pick.
- Cordoba average 0.7 first-half goals for and 0.7 against
- Almeria average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.4 against
- Combined first-half BTTS rate is low in recent matches
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, making over 9.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Cordoba average 6.9 corners per match, Almeria average 4.4
- Combined average corners per match is 11.3
- Recent H2H matches have varied corner counts
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages suggest a good chance of at least five cards, especially with Cordoba's high foul count.
- Cordoba average 2.9 yellow cards per match, Almeria average 2.1
- Combined average yellow cards is 5.0
- Cordoba's aggressive style leads to more fouls and cards
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%