USL ChampionshipFull time

Predictions graded

Brooklyn FC1Miami1

HT 0–0Sat 12 Sept 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 05:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Brooklyn FC and Miami are evenly matched, with poor home and away records respectively.

The only betting value is on the draw at 3.60 (estimated 32% vs implied 28%), while most other markets are overpriced. Brooklyn's loss of Markus Anderson and a quick turnaround add uncertainty, but the draw remains the top actionable takeaway.

Context

Brooklyn forward Markus Anderson had made 16 USL Championship appearances, including 14 starts, with six goals and four assists before his loan recall.
Philadelphia Union recalled Anderson on September 2, removing a recently regular attacking option for this match. Brooklyn's September 3 preview said Pierre Da Silva and JC Obregón would take on added scoring responsibility. The change forces Brooklyn to redistribute chance creation and finishing duties without Anderson's recent production.
- Brooklyn announced on September 2 that Philadelphia Union had recalled Markus Anderson from his loan.
- The club’s September 3 preview said Brooklyn would be without Anderson and that Pierre Da Silva and JC Obregón would take on added scoring responsibility.
- Brooklyn recorded Anderson as making 16 USL Championship appearances, including 14 starts, with six goals and four assists.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 05:12 · Europe/BucharestBrooklyn FC — Markus Anderson Recalled from Loan by Philadelphia Unionwww.brooklynfootballclub.com · 2 Sep 2026Brooklyn FC — Match Preview at Tampa Bay Rowdieswww.brooklynfootballclub.com · 3 Sep 2026
Brooklyn FC sit 12th in the USL Championship with 16 points from 21 matches.
At home, they have won only three of ten matches, losing six. This home record suggests they struggle to control games in front of their own fans. Miami's away record is also weak, with just one win in eleven away matches, so this could be a low-scoring contest.
- Brooklyn FC have lost 6 of 10 home matches this season.
- They have won only 3 home matches, with 1 draw.
Brooklyn's official schedule places the rescheduled away match at Indy Eleven on September 15, three days after this match.
The club's September 5 match report describes September as a period with matches nearly every three days. The quick turnaround can influence substitutions, late-match workload, and selection management against Miami. Brooklyn may manage minutes with the Indy Eleven trip immediately ahead.
- Brooklyn’s September 5 match report describes September as a period with matches nearly every three days.
- The report lists Miami at home on September 12, Indy Eleven away on September 15, and FC Tulsa at home on September 19.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 05:12 · Europe/BucharestBrooklyn FC — Men Beaten 2-0 on the Road by the Tampa Bay Rowdieswww.brooklynfootballclub.com · 6 Sep 2026
Miami are 9th in the USL Championship with 23 points from 23 matches.
Away from home, they have won just once in eleven attempts, drawing four and losing six. This away record indicates they often struggle to impose themselves on the road. Brooklyn's home form is also poor, so both teams may find it hard to create clear chances.
- Miami have won 1, drawn 4, and lost 6 of 11 away matches.
- They have scored only 7 goals in those away matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Brooklyn FC or Draw

1.33fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Brooklyn's home advantage and Miami's poor away form make a home win or draw likely.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams concede heavily and score moderately, suggesting a high-scoring game, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.57fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 63.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams regularly score and concede, making BTTS likely, but the odds are slightly below our estimated probability.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Miami to score

1.17fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

Brooklyn's defense is leaky and Miami regularly scores, so a home clean sheet is unlikely, but the odds are extremely short.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Brooklyn FC to score

1.30fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Miami's defense is also leaky and Brooklyn can score, so an away clean sheet is unlikely, but the odds are short.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have poor records and similar goal differentials, with Brooklyn's home form and Miami's away form suggesting a closely contested match.
- Brooklyn home record: 3W-1D-6L, 10 goals for, 10 against in 10 matches
- Miami away record: 1W-4D-6L, 7 goals for, 19 against in 11 matches
- H2H last meeting: Miami FC 3-2 Brooklyn (May 2026)
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Brooklyn's home advantage and Miami's poor away form make a home win or draw likely.
- Brooklyn home record: 3W-1D-6L, 10 goals for, 10 against in 10 matches
- Miami away record: 1W-4D-6L, 7 goals for, 19 against in 11 matches
- Brooklyn recent form: LWLLL, Miami recent form: DLLLD
BetBugs · Double ChancewonBrooklyn FC or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have similar first half scoring and conceding patterns, making a draw at half time plausible.
- Brooklyn leading at half time in 27% of matches, trailing in 47%
- Miami leading at half time in 27% of matches, trailing in 33%
- Both teams have similar first half goal averages
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown a tendency to draw, and a draw at half time could persist to full time.
- Brooklyn half time draw rate: 26%, full time draw rate: 19%
- Miami half time draw rate: 33%, full time draw rate: 35%
- Both teams have high draw tendencies
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams concede heavily and score moderately, suggesting a high-scoring game.
- Brooklyn average goals per match: 1.3, goals conceded: 1.9
- Miami average goals per match: 1.5, goals conceded: 1.9
- Combined average goals in matches involving these teams: 3.2
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams regularly score and concede, making BTTS likely.
- Brooklyn scored in 10 of last 15 matches, conceded in 13
- Miami scored in 11 of last 15 matches, conceded in 13
- Both teams have negative goal differences and leaky defenses
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score and concede in the first half, making over 0.5 first half goals likely.
- Brooklyn first half goals average: 0.7, first half conceded: 0.9
- Miami first half goals average: 0.7, first half conceded: 0.7
- Combined first half goal average: 1.4
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring is slightly lower but still likely to produce over 1.5 goals.
- Brooklyn second half goals average: 0.6, conceded: 1.0
- Miami second half goals average: 0.8, conceded: 1.2
- Combined second half goal average: 1.8
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Brooklyn's defense is leaky and Miami regularly scores, so a home clean sheet is unlikely.
- Brooklyn kept clean sheet in only 2 of last 15 matches
- Miami scored in 11 of last 15 matches
- Brooklyn conceded in 13 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMiami to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Miami's defense is also leaky and Brooklyn can score, so an away clean sheet is unlikely.
- Miami kept clean sheet in only 3 of last 15 matches
- Brooklyn scored in 10 of last 15 matches
- Miami conceded in 13 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonBrooklyn FC to scoreEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Brooklyn's scoring is modest, but they have the potential to score multiple goals at home.
- Brooklyn average goals per match: 1.3
- Brooklyn home average goals: 1.0
- Brooklyn scored 2+ goals in 6 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Home Goals TotallostBrooklyn FC over 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Miami's away scoring is low, but they have shown ability to score multiple goals.
- Miami average goals per match: 1.5
- Miami away average goals: 0.64
- Miami scored 2+ goals in 7 of last 15 matches
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostMiami over 1.5Estimated chance40%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 75% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Brooklyn FC has struggled to clear Over 2.5 goals

Brooklyn FC has fulfilled Over 2.5 goals in 3 of 8 recent matches. The average estimated probability was 58.8%, but only 37.5% of matches went over, below the expected 4.7 fulfilled predictions. At home, Brooklyn FC has gone over in just 1 of 3 matches, while the current probability of 55% sits within the historical range.

Recent evidence for Brooklyn FC8 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

26 Jul·USL Championship