Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Venezia2Fiorentina4

HT 1–2Fri 11 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions2–918%

Edges0–60%

PossPossession 62%–38%ShotsShots 11–19On targetOn target 4–10CornersCorners 2–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 09:17 · Europe/Bucharest

Expect a low-scoring, cagey affair between two out-of-form sides.

The top value is Under 2.5 goals (68% model probability vs 51.3% implied), with additional edges on Both Teams to Score – No and the First-Half Draw. Avoid betting on a match winner, as neither team has shown the quality to justify their odds.

Context

Venezia are 18th with 0 points from 2 matches, while Fiorentina are 20th with 0 points from 3 matches.
Both teams have lost every league game so far, with Venezia scoring 0 goals and conceding 4, and Fiorentina scoring 1 and conceding 9. This match is an early opportunity for either side to earn a first win and move out of the relegation places. The pressure to avoid another defeat could lead to a cautious approach, but both teams need points badly.
- Venezia have lost both Serie A matches: 0-2 vs Lecce (Aug 23) and 0-2 vs AC Milan (Aug 28).
- Fiorentina have lost all three Serie A matches: 0-4 vs AS Roma (Aug 24), 0-3 vs Frosinone (Aug 29), and 1-2 vs Torino (Sep 5).
- Venezia are 18th and Fiorentina are 20th in the standings, both with 0 points.
Fiorentina have lost all three Serie A matches and have the worst goal difference in the league at -8.
Fiorentina have conceded 9 goals in 3 matches, including 4 against AS Roma and 3 against Frosinone. Their defensive record is the worst in Serie A, and Venezia, despite not scoring yet, may find opportunities against this back line. However, Venezia's own attack has been ineffective, so it is not certain they can take advantage.
- Fiorentina lost 0-4 to AS Roma on Aug 24, conceding 4 goals.
- Fiorentina lost 0-3 to Frosinone on Aug 29, conceding 3 goals.
- Fiorentina have conceded 9 goals in 3 Serie A matches, the most in the league.
Venezia have lost both Serie A matches without scoring a goal.
Venezia have 0 goals in 2 league matches, with 0-2 losses to Lecce and AC Milan. Their attack has created chances but not converted them, and facing a Fiorentina side that has conceded 9 goals may offer a chance to end that drought. However, Venezia's own scoring problems are a concern.
- Venezia lost 0-2 to Lecce on Aug 23.
- Venezia lost 0-2 to AC Milan on Aug 28.
- Venezia have scored 0 goals in Serie A this season.
Fiorentina head coach Fabio Grosso has said he will not resign after the Torino defeat, but the club has not publicly confirmed whether the current technical setup will lead the team in Venice.
Grosso's position remains confirmed for now, yet the lack of public backing leaves uncertainty over final training and selection. Any late change to the technical staff could alter Fiorentina's match plan, while continued pressure on the coach may affect preparation without a concrete mechanism being established.
- On 5 September, Grosso said he had never considered resigning.
- He said responsibility was his but decisions were for those above him.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 09:16 · Europe/BucharestANSA: Grosso says he will not resignvideoembed.ansa.it · 5 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams are struggling badly and lack scoring, making a low-scoring draw the most likely result.
- Venezia home record this season: 0W 0D 1L, 0 goals scored, 2 conceded
- Fiorentina away record this season: 0W 0D 1L, 0 goals scored, 4 conceded
- Last H2H at Venezia (May 2025): Venezia 2-1 Fiorentina
- Both teams have 0 points and are in the relegation zone
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Venezia's home advantage and Fiorentina's terrible away form make the home side avoiding defeat likely.
- Venezia home record this season: 0W 0D 1L
- Fiorentina away record this season: 0W 0D 1L
- Venezia won the last home H2H 2-1 in May 2025
- Fiorentina have lost all 3 Serie A matches this season
BetBugs · Double ChancelostVenezia or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, making a level first half the most probable outcome.
- Venezia have been level at half-time in both Serie A matches this season
- Fiorentina have been level at half-time in 1 of 3 Serie A matches this season
- Venezia first half goals: 0 scored, 0 conceded
- Fiorentina first half goals: 0 scored, 3 conceded
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A cautious start and lack of scoring could lead to a stalemate at both half-time and full-time.
- Venezia have drawn at half-time in both Serie A matches
- Fiorentina have drawn at half-time in 1 of 3 Serie A matches
- Both teams have 0 points and are in the relegation zone
- Last H2H at Venezia ended 2-1 to Venezia
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have severe scoring problems, making a low-scoring game highly probable.
- Venezia have scored 0 goals in 2 Serie A matches this season
- Fiorentina have scored 1 goal in 3 Serie A matches this season
- Venezia home matches average 2.0 total goals this season
- Fiorentina away matches average 4.0 total goals this season
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been unable to score consistently, so at least one side is likely to fail to score.
- Venezia have failed to score in both Serie A matches this season
- Fiorentina have failed to score in 2 of 3 Serie A matches this season
- Venezia home matches: 0 goals scored, 2 conceded
- Fiorentina away matches: 0 goals scored, 4 conceded
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been extremely quiet in the first half, making a goalless or one-goal first half likely.
- Venezia first half goals this season: 0 in 2 matches
- Fiorentina first half goals this season: 0 in 3 matches
- Venezia first half goals conceded: 0 in 2 matches
- Fiorentina first half goals conceded: 3 in 3 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Scoring has been scarce in the second half for both teams, supporting a low second-half total.
- Venezia second half goals this season: 0 in 2 matches
- Fiorentina second half goals this season: 1 in 3 matches
- Venezia second half goals conceded: 2 in 2 matches
- Fiorentina second half goals conceded: 6 in 3 matches
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams average modest corner counts, suggesting a total under 10 corners is plausible.
- Venezia average 5.1 corners per match overall
- Fiorentina average 4.3 corners per match overall
- Venezia home corners this season: 5 in 1 match
- Fiorentina away corners this season: 3 in 1 match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low shots on target averages, making a combined total under 9 likely.
- Venezia average 6.1 shots on target per match overall
- Fiorentina average 4.0 shots on target per match overall
- Venezia home shots on target this season: 7 in 1 match
- Fiorentina away shots on target this season: 4 in 1 match
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low card averages, suggesting a low total card count.
- Venezia average 1.6 yellow cards per match overall
- Fiorentina average 1.6 yellow cards per match overall
- Venezia home yellow cards this season: 1 in 1 match
- Fiorentina away yellow cards this season: 2 in 1 match
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonUnder 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 38% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of 32%; the home side's poor scoring record makes the price unattractive.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 1W

W2-1VeneziavFiorentinaMay 12, 2025SA

D0-0FiorentinavVeneziaAug 25, 2024SA

L1-0FiorentinavVeneziaApr 16, 2022SA

W1-0VeneziavFiorentinaOct 18, 2021SA

Venezia: 2 clean sheetsFiorentina: 2 clean sheets1.3 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
18	Venezia Relegation	2	0	0	2	0-4	0	LL
20	Fiorentina Relegation	3	0	0	3	1-9	0	LLL

Venezia in relegation zoneFiorentina in relegation zone

Recent Form

Venezia

L1-2UdineseSep 2CI

L0-2AC MilanAug 28SA

L0-2LecceAug 23SA

W3-2ModenaAug 15CI

D2-2Stade Brestois 29Aug 8FRI

L3-4Saint EtienneAug 1FRI

W3-0GalatasarayJul 27FRI

W8-0Vis PesaroJul 23FRI

W4-2Dolomiti BellunesiJul 19FRI

W2-0PalermoMay 8SER

D2-2SpeziaMay 1SER

W2-0EmpoliApr 25SER

W3-0BariApr 18SER

D1-1Virtus EntellaApr 11SER

W3-1Juve StabiaApr 6SER

Fiorentina

L1-2TorinoSep 5SA

L0-3FrosinoneAug 29SA

L0-4AS RomaAug 24SA

W4-1BeneventoAug 14CI

D1-1Deportivo La CorunaAug 6FRI

D2-2Real MadridAug 1FRI

W1-0WatfordJul 29FRI

L2-3QPRJul 25FRI

W1-0GubbioJul 22FRI

W8-1Fiorentina U20Jul 19FRI

Squad & Injuries

Venezia

33 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Fiorentina

28 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Venezia2Fiorentina4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

No

Under 1.5

Venezia or Draw

BetBugs probabilities

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 2.5

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Venezia

Fiorentina

Squad & Injuries

Venezia

Fiorentina