BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

Union Berlin1Schalke3

HT 0–1Fri 11 Sept 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–925%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 66%–34%ShotsShots 21–19On targetOn target 8–10CornersCorners 4–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 09:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Union Berlin are favourites at home against a struggling Schalke side missing suspended midfielder Ron Schallenberg.

The best value bet is Over 1.5 second-half goals at odds of 2.25, with an estimated 55% probability versus the implied 44.4%, offering a clear edge. Avoid the home win and Over 2.5 goals markets, as the odds already reflect their likelihood.

Context

Union Berlin sit 15th with one point after two matches, having conceded seven goals. Schalke are 14th with one point and have not scored in the league.
Union Berlin's defensive record is the worst in the division, with seven goals conceded in two games. Schalke's attack has been blunt, failing to score in their two Bundesliga matches. This contrast may lead Union Berlin to push forward more, while Schalke could focus on keeping a clean sheet and hitting on the break.
- Union Berlin lost 4-0 at Bayer Leverkusen on 2026-09-05 and drew 3-3 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt on 2026-08-29.
- Schalke drew 0-0 at home to Bayern München on 2026-09-05 and lost 3-0 at FC Augsburg on 2026-08-30.
Schalke midfielder Ron Schallenberg is suspended for this match after his dismissal at Augsburg on 30 August. He had started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
Schalke must replace a listed midfield option for this fixture. The two-match ban removes Schallenberg from selection, forcing a change in the midfield setup. The team's recent lineups show he was a regular starter, so his absence will require a different player to fill that role.
- The DFB imposed a two-match licence-league suspension on Ron Schallenberg.
- The sanction followed his dismissal in Schalke's Bundesliga match at Augsburg on 30 August.
- R. Schallenberg started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 09:10 · Europe/BucharestDFB-Sportgerichtwww.dfb.de · 2 Sep 2026
Schalke have played one away match in the Bundesliga this season, losing 3-0 at FC Augsburg. Union Berlin have one home match, a 3-3 draw with Eintracht Frankfurt.
Schalke's away record is poor, with no goals scored and three conceded in their only road game. Union Berlin's home match produced six goals, suggesting their games can be open. Schalke may need to improve their away performance to get a result, while Union Berlin will look to exploit their home advantage.
- Schalke lost 3-0 at FC Augsburg on 2026-08-30.
- Union Berlin drew 3-3 at home to Eintracht Frankfurt on 2026-08-29.
Union Berlin attacker Ilyas Ansah has left the club, joining Hull City. The club confirmed his departure on 1 September.
Union Berlin's available attacking selection is narrowed by Ansah's confirmed departure. The club will need to cover his role from within the squad, though the specific replacement is not detailed in the available information.
- Union announced on 1 September that Ilyas Ansah was moving to Hull City.
- The club stated that its relationship with the attacking player had ended.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 09:10 · Europe/Bucharest1. FC Union Berlinwww.fc-union-berlin.de · 1 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.53fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent matches have trended high-scoring, especially Union at home, but the odds already price in a strong likelihood of Over 2.5.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Union's home advantage and Schalke's poor away form give the hosts a clear edge in the match result.
- Union Berlin's home record this season: 1 draw, 0 losses, with 3 goals scored.
- Schalke's away record this season: 1 loss, 0 goals scored, 3 conceded.
- Union Berlin won 3 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostUnion BerlinEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Union's strong home form and Schalke's away struggles make a home win or draw highly probable.
- Union Berlin have not lost at home this season (1 draw).
- Schalke have lost their only away match this season.
- Union Berlin have lost only 1 of their last 5 home matches across all competitions.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostUnion Berlin or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Union's home advantage may give them a slight edge, but first-half outcomes are highly variable.
- Union Berlin led at half-time in 33% of their last 15 matches.
- Schalke trailed at half-time in 33% of their last 15 matches.
- Union Berlin's home match this season was level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostUnion BerlinEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Union's stronger second-half performances at home suggest they could edge the second period.
- Union Berlin won the second half in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Schalke lost the second half in 2 of their last 3 Bundesliga matches.
- Union Berlin's home match this season saw them win the second half 2-1.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostUnion BerlinEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A Union lead at half-time and full-time is possible but not highly probable given their mixed first-half record.
- Union Berlin led at half-time in 33% of their last 15 matches.
- Union Berlin won 40% of their last 5 home matches.
- Schalke trailed at half-time in 33% of their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostUnion Berlin/Union BerlinEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Winning both halves is a rare outcome, and Union's first-half inconsistency makes it unlikely.
- Union Berlin won both halves in only 1 of their last 5 home matches.
- Schalke lost both halves in their last away match.
- Union Berlin's home match this season had a draw in the first half.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostUnion BerlinEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Union are unlikely to be trailing at half-time at home, making a home lead or draw the most likely first-half outcome.
- Union Berlin led or drew at half-time in 67% of their last 15 matches.
- Schalke trailed at half-time in 33% of their last 15 matches.
- Union Berlin's home match this season was level at half-time.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostUnion Berlin or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown high-scoring tendencies in recent matches, and Union's home games have been particularly open, supporting Over 2.5 goals.
- Union Berlin's last 15 matches average 2.6 goals for and 2.0 against, totaling 4.6 goals per game.
- Schalke's last 15 matches average 1.7 goals for and 1.4 against, totaling 3.1 goals per game.
- Union Berlin's home Bundesliga match this season ended 3-3, while Schalke's away match ended 0-3.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Union's defensive vulnerabilities and Schalke's need to attack after a poor start make both teams scoring likely.
- Union Berlin scored in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches, including 3 goals at home.
- Schalke failed to score in their last two Bundesliga matches but scored in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Union Berlin conceded in 4 of their last 5 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, but the low probability reflects the uncertainty of early goals.
- Union Berlin average 1.1 first-half goals in their last 15 matches.
- Schalke average 0.9 first-half goals in their last 15 matches.
- Union Berlin's last home match had 3 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been more productive for both teams, especially Union at home.
- Union Berlin's last 5 matches averaged 2.4 second-half goals.
- Schalke's last 5 matches averaged 1.8 second-half goals.
- Union Berlin's home match this season had 3 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown first-half scoring ability, but the probability remains low due to variability.
- Union Berlin scored in the first half in 60% of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Schalke scored in the first half in 40% of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Union Berlin's home match this season had both teams scoring in the first half.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance30%

Head-to-Head

1W · 4D · 0W

D0-0Union BerlinvFC Schalke 04Feb 19, 2023BL

W1-6FC Schalke 04vUnion BerlinAug 27, 2022BL

D0-0Union BerlinvFC Schalke 04Feb 13, 2021BL

D1-1FC Schalke 04vUnion BerlinOct 18, 2020BL

D1-1Union BerlinvFC Schalke 04Jun 7, 2020BL

Union Berlin unbeaten in 5 meetingsUnion Berlin: 2 clean sheetsSchalke: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Union Berlin	2	0	1	1	3-7	1	LD
14	Schalke	2	0	1	1	0-3	1	DL

Recent Form

Union Berlin

L0-4Bayer LeverkusenSep 5BL

D3-3Eintracht FrankfurtAug 29BL

W4-2Eintracht BraunschweigAug 23DFB

L2-4IpswichAug 15FRI

W3-2ArisAug 9FRI

D2-2CagliariAug 2FRI

L1-2Dynamo DresdenAug 1FRI

L1-2FC AarauJul 18FRI

D1-1FC WinterthurJul 17FRI

L0-2FC Carl Zeiss JenaJul 12FRI

D1-1Chemnitzer FCJul 9FRI

W12-2Optik RathenowJul 4FRI

W4-0FC AugsburgMay 16BL

W3-1FSV Mainz 05May 10BL

D2-21. FC KölnMay 2BL

Schalke

D0-0Bayern MünchenSep 5BL

L0-3FC AugsburgAug 30BL

L0-3Real MadridAug 16FRI

L0-3AtalantaAug 8FRI

W5-0Hessen KasselAug 1FRI

W3-1Fagiano OkayamaJul 25FRI

W2-0FC KharkivJul 22FRI

W4-2Erzgebirge AueJul 19FRI

L1-2FC GuterslohJul 11FRI

W1-0Eintracht BraunschweigMay 172.

L0-31. FC NürnbergMay 92.

W1-0Fortuna DüsseldorfMay 22.

W3-2SC Paderborn 07Apr 262.

W4-1Preußen MünsterApr 192.

W2-1SV ElversbergApr 122.

Squad & Injuries

Union Berlin

38 available

Attackers11

Midfielders11

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Schalke

31 available

Attackers9

Midfielders9

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Union Berlin or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Result0 of 7 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Union Berlin

Schalke

Squad & Injuries

Union Berlin

Schalke