BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

Mainz1Union Berlin3

HT 0–1Sun 10 May 2026, 17:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 53%–47%ShotsShots 14–16On targetOn target 3–9CornersCorners 7–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 May 2026, 10:01 · Europe/Bucharest

Union Berlin's historical edge—unbeaten in six H2Hs and only one Mainz win in 13—makes the double chance (Union or draw) at 2.00 a high-value play, with our 65% estimate well above the implied 50%.

Mainz's poor home record and Union's survival-secured relaxation add to the case, though Urs Fischer's reunion with his old club is a wildcard. Expect a tight, potentially feisty match where both teams score, but the visitors are the safer side to back.

Context

Last six H2H results: 2-2, 2-1, 1-1, 1-1, 4-1, 2-1 (Union Berlin unbeaten).
- Mainz have only 1 win in the last 13 meetings across all competitions.
- Union Berlin have won three of the last five away H2H matches at Mainz.
Mainz home record: 4 wins, 5 draws, 7 losses in 16 Bundesliga home games.
- Mainz have scored 20 and conceded 22 at home, averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per home game.
- In their last 5 home matches, Mainz have 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses.
A match-week report stated Union resumed training after securing survival with a relaxed atmosphere.
- Union have nothing at stake, while Mainz may still need points depending on the table situation.
- Relaxed mindset could lead to a flat performance or a liberated display.
Fischer coached Union Berlin for five years, achieving promotion and European qualification.
- He knows Union's squad and tactical setup intimately.
- This reunion adds an emotional layer that could influence player performance.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Union Berlin's historical H2H edge (unbeaten in last 6) and Mainz's weak home win rate (25%) make a draw the most likely outcome, especially with Union's survival already secured reducing desperation.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws, 2 Union Berlin wins (0 Mainz wins).
- Mainz home record this season: 4W-5D-7L, only 4 wins in 16 home games.
- Union Berlin away record: 4W-2D-10L, but recent H2H dominance suggests resilience.
- Mainz last 5 form: W-L-D-L-W (inconsistent), Union last 5: D-L-L-L-D (poor but survival secured).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Strong H2H psychology (Union unbeaten in 6) combined with Mainz's poor home record (only 4 wins in 16) makes a Union Berlin win or draw highly probable.
- Union Berlin unbeaten in last 6 H2H (3W, 3D).
- Mainz have only 1 win in last 13 H2H meetings.
- Mainz home win rate this season: 25% (4/16).
- Union Berlin away record: 4W-2D-10L, but H2H psychology overrides venue weakness.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or Union BerlinEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Union Berlin's extremely low first-half leading rate (7%) and Mainz's moderate first-half strength (40% lead) suggest a cagey start, with a draw at halftime being the most probable scenario.
- Mainz first half record: led at HT in 40% of matches, trailed in 20%.
- Union Berlin first half record: led at HT in only 7% of matches, trailed in 67%.
- Last 5 H2H first half results: 2 draws, 2 Union leads, 1 Mainz lead.
- Mainz average 0.8 first half goals, Union average 0.2 first half goals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Mainz's tendency to improve after halftime and Union's defensive fragility in later stages could see the home side edge the second half, though confidence is low given Mainz's overall inconsistency.
- Mainz tend to score more in second halves (average 0.5 first half vs 0.8 second half implied).
- Union Berlin concede heavily in second halves (overall 2.1 goals against per game).
- Mainz home record: 4 wins, often coming from behind or late goals.
- Union Berlin away second half record: conceded 2+ goals in 6 of last 10 away games.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableMainzEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A low-scoring, tight match is expected, and with both teams struggling to win, a draw at both halftime and fulltime is a plausible but low-probability outcome.
- Mainz home draws: 5 in 16 games (31%).
- Union Berlin away draws: 2 in 16 games (12.5%).
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws, with 2 being 1-1 at both HT and FT.
- Both teams have low winning percentages (Mainz 25% home, Union 25% away).
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / DrawEstimated chance20%

Goals2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H trend (4 of last 5 over 2.5) and both teams' defensive vulnerabilities (Union concede 2.1 goals/game overall) support a higher-scoring match.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 matches had over 2.5 goals (2-2, 2-1, 1-1, 1-1, 4-1).
- Mainz home games average 2.6 total goals (20 scored, 22 conceded in 16).
- Union Berlin away games average 2.9 total goals (15 scored, 31 conceded in 16).
- Mainz last 5 home games: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistently found the net in recent H2H meetings (4/5), and Mainz's home scoring record (81% of games) clashes with Union's poor away defensive record (conceded in 88%).
- Last 5 H2H: both teams scored in 4 of 5 matches.
- Mainz scored in 13 of 16 home games this season (81%).
- Union Berlin conceded in 14 of 16 away games (88%).
- Mainz average 1.3 goals/game, Union Berlin average 0.9 but H2H shows they score against Mainz.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring output (Mainz 0.8, Union 0.2), and historical H2H first halves have been tight, making under 1.5 goals likely.
- Mainz first half goals: 0.8 per game, Union first half goals: 0.2 per game.
- Union Berlin trailed at HT in 67% of matches but rarely score early.
- Last 5 H2H first half goals: 1, 1, 0, 0, 2 (only 1 match over 1.5).
- Mainz first half goals conceded: 0.5 per game.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Combined corner averages (Mainz 4.7 + Union 4.8 = 9.5) and recent H2H trends (average 9.0) suggest a borderline over 9.5 corners, but low confidence due to variability.
- Mainz average 4.7 corners per game, Union Berlin average 4.8.
- Mainz home corners: average 5.1, Union away corners: average 4.3.
- Last 5 H2H corner counts: 9, 8, 7, 11, 10 (average 9.0).
- Both teams concede corners: Mainz 4.7, Union 5.3 per game.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H matches average over 4.5 cards, and the added narrative of Urs Fischer facing his former club could raise tensions, making over 4.5 cards likely.
- Mainz average 1.7 yellow cards per game, Union Berlin average 1.9.
- Combined average: 3.6 cards, but H2H matches often feisty (last 5: 5, 4, 6, 5, 3 cards).
- Mainz home fouls: 10.7 per game, Union away fouls: 11.5 per game.
- Referee data unavailable, but derby-like reunion (Fischer vs old club) may increase intensity.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

0W · 3D · 2W

D2-2Union BerlinvFSV Mainz 05Jan 10, 2026BL

L2-1Union BerlinvFSV Mainz 05Jan 19, 2025BL

D1-1FSV Mainz 05vUnion BerlinAug 24, 2024BL

D1-1FSV Mainz 05vUnion BerlinFeb 7, 2024BL

L4-1Union BerlinvFSV Mainz 05Aug 20, 2023BL

Union Berlin unbeaten in 5 meetings3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Mainz	32	9	10	13	41-50	37	WLDLW
13	Union Berlin	32	8	9	15	37-57	33	DLLLD

4pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Mainz

W2-1FC St. PauliMay 3BL

L3-4Bayern MünchenApr 25BL

D1-1Borussia MönchengladbachApr 19BL

L0-4StrasbourgApr 16UEF

L0-1SC FreiburgApr 12BL

W2-0StrasbourgApr 9UEF

W2-11899 HoffenheimApr 4BL

W2-1Eintracht FrankfurtMar 22BL

W2-0Sigma OlomoucMar 19UEF

W2-0Werder BremenMar 15BL

D0-0Sigma OlomoucMar 12UEF

D2-2VfB StuttgartMar 7BL

D1-1Bayer LeverkusenFeb 28BL

D1-1Hamburger SVFeb 20BL

L0-4Borussia DortmundFeb 13BL

Union Berlin

D2-21. FC KölnMay 2BL

L1-3RB LeipzigApr 24BL

L1-2VfL WolfsburgApr 18BL

L1-31. FC HeidenheimApr 11BL

D1-1FC St. PauliApr 5BL

L0-4Bayern MünchenMar 21BL

W1-0SC FreiburgMar 15BL

L1-4Werder BremenMar 8BL

L0-1Borussia MönchengladbachFeb 28BL

W1-0Bayer LeverkusenFeb 21BL

L2-3Hamburger SVFeb 14BL

D1-1Eintracht FrankfurtFeb 6BL

L1-31899 HoffenheimJan 31BL

L0-3Borussia DortmundJan 24BL

D1-1VfB StuttgartJan 18BL

Squad & Injuries

Mainz

31 available

Attackers8

Midfielders11

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Union Berlin

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Union Berlin

Draw

Yes

Over 2.5

Under 1.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Mainz

Union Berlin

Squad & Injuries

Mainz

Union Berlin