Rakow Czestochowa2Motor Lublin1

HT 1–1Fri 11 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 15–16On targetOn target 7–5CornersCorners 8–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Sep 2026, 22:42 · Europe/Bucharest

Back Motor Lublin or the draw: the double chance at 2.05 offers a 19-point edge, and Motor to win at 3.75 carries a 15-point edge.

Raków's winless start and late coaching uncertainty make the home side a poor value favourite at 1.75.

Context

Rakow Czestochowa are bottom of the Ekstraklasa with zero points from five matches, scoring six and conceding 13.
They have lost all five league games, including a 2-1 home defeat to Gornik Zabrze on 3 September and a 5-2 home loss to Jagiellonia on 30 August. This poor run means they are under immediate pressure to get their first points, but their defensive record suggests they may struggle to keep Motor Lublin out.
- Rakow Czestochowa are 18th with 0 points from 5 matches, scoring 6 and conceding 13.
- They lost 2-1 at home to Gornik Zabrze on 3 September 2026.
- They lost 5-2 at home to Jagiellonia on 30 August 2026.
Tomasz Kaczmarek is currently Radomiak Radom head coach and is reported to be in final talks with Raków Częstochowa.
The reported move leaves Raków with limited time for a settled coaching handover and final match preparation. The formal agreement was still incomplete as of 8 September, so the coaching situation may remain unresolved when the match kicks off.
- Weszło reported on 8 September that Kaczmarek had told Radomiak’s players and staff that he intended to accept Raków’s offer before travelling to Częstochowa.
- The same report said the formal agreement was still incomplete while the parties entered final contract discussions.
- Sport.pl independently reported that no agreement had yet been reached, while Kaczmarek was expected to lead Raków’s next training session.
ReportedSources checked 8 Sep 2026, 22:40 · Europe/BucharestWeszło — Kaczmarek leaves Radomiak for Raków talksweszlo.com · 8 Sep 2026Sport.pl — Raków coaching updatewww.sport.pl · 8 Sep 2026
Motor Lublin are 15th in the Ekstraklasa with five points from seven matches, one point above the relegation line.
They have lost four of their seven league games, including a 3-2 home defeat to Legia Warszawa on 5 September and a 2-0 home loss to Piast Gliwice on 29 August. Their away record is winless in three matches, with two draws and one loss, so they will be desperate to improve on the road.
- Motor Lublin are 15th with 5 points from 7 matches, scoring 8 and conceding 13.
- They lost 3-2 at home to Legia Warszawa on 5 September 2026.
- They lost 2-0 at home to Piast Gliwice on 29 August 2026.
Rakow Czestochowa and Motor Lublin have met four times in the Ekstraklasa since 2024.
The most recent meeting on 12 April 2026 ended 1-1 at Motor Lublin. Before that, Rakow won 2-0 at home on 5 October 2025, and the teams drew 2-2 on 7 December 2024. These results indicate that neither side has dominated this fixture recently.
- On 12 April 2026, Motor Lublin drew 1-1 at home with Rakow Czestochowa.
- On 5 October 2025, Rakow Czestochowa won 2-0 at home against Motor Lublin.
- On 7 December 2024, Rakow Czestochowa drew 2-2 at home with Motor Lublin.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Rakow's catastrophic league form and zero points make them vulnerable despite home advantage, while Motor have shown slightly better resilience.
- Rakow Czestochowa have lost all 5 league matches this season, conceding 13 goals.
- Motor Lublin have 5 points from 7 matches and are 15th, while Rakow are bottom with 0 points.
- Rakow's last 5 matches: LLLLL; Motor's last 5: LLDWL.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMotor LublinEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Rakow's winless run, backing Motor or draw covers the most likely outcomes.
- Rakow have lost all 5 league games this season.
- Motor Lublin have drawn 2 of their last 5 league matches.
- H2H last 5: 2 draws, 2 Rakow wins, 1 Motor win.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Motor LublinEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team has a strong first-half dominance, making a level score at the break plausible.
- Rakow have led at half-time in 27% of matches, trailed in 27%, and drawn in 46%.
- Motor have led at half-time in 27%, trailed in 40%, and drawn in 33%.
- Both teams average similar first-half goals.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Motor's slightly better second-half scoring and Rakow's defensive frailty could tilt the second period.
- Motor have scored more second-half goals (1.2 per match) than Rakow (1.0).
- Rakow have conceded 1.0 second-half goals per match.
- Motor's away record shows resilience with 2 draws in 3 away games.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostMotor LublinEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Motor win or draw is a plausible scenario given Rakow's struggles.
- Rakow have not won any league match this season.
- Motor have drawn 2 of their last 5 matches.
- H2H shows 2 draws in last 5 meetings.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Motor LublinEstimated chance30%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games, with Rakow's defense particularly leaky.
- Rakow average 1.7 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per match.
- Motor average 1.9 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per match.
- Combined average goals per match: 3.4.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show consistent scoring ability while Rakow's defense is unreliable, making BTTS likely.
- Rakow have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Motor have scored in 6 of their last 7 league matches.
- Rakow have conceded in all 5 league matches this season.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
First-half scoring rates are moderate, but the pressure on Rakow could lead to early goals.
- Rakow average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Motor average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
- Combined first-half average: 1.5 goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as fatigue sets in, especially for a struggling Rakow side.
- Rakow average 1.0 second-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Motor average 1.2 second-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- Combined second-half average: 2.2 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and an open game could push the total over.
- Rakow average 4.3 corners per match, Motor 4.1.
- Combined average corners: 8.4.
- Recent matches show variability, with some games exceeding 10 corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce a decent number of shots on target, and Rakow's leaky defense boosts the total.
- Rakow average 4.1 shots on target per match, Motor 4.8.
- Combined average shots on target: 8.9.
- Rakow's defense allows many shots on target (opponents average 5+).
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The desperation of both teams, especially Rakow, could lead to more fouls and bookings.
- Rakow average 1.7 yellow cards per match, Motor 1.8.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.5.
- High-stakes relegation battle may increase fouls and cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%