YkkönenFull time

Predictions graded

FC Jazz3KPV Kokkola0

HT 2–0Fri 11 Sept 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions10–283%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Sep 2026, 15:58 · Europe/Bucharest

FC Jazz are likely to avoid defeat, but the odds offer no value on home win or double chance.

The only positive edge is 'Win to Nil - Away: No' at 1.25, where KPV's poor away record makes a shutout away win highly improbable.

Context

KPV Kokkola are bottom of the Ykkönen table with 15 points from 22 matches.
They have the worst defensive record in the league, conceding 68 goals overall and 38 in 11 away matches. Recent away results include a 4-1 loss at JJK on 29 August and a 6-0 loss at Tampere United on 5 August. FC Jazz average 1.5 goals per game and have scored in most recent matches, so they may find space against this defence.
- KPV Kokkola have conceded 68 goals in 22 league matches, the most in the division.
- In 11 away matches they have conceded 38 goals, an average of 3.45 per game.
- Recent away losses: 4-1 at JJK on 29 August 2026 and 6-0 at Tampere United on 5 August 2026.
FC Jazz have already secured their Ykkönen place, while KPV start the five-game relegation group from the relegation positions.
KPV enter this first relegation-group match needing points to climb out of danger, whereas FC Jazz have no survival pressure. That difference in immediate stakes may shape how each side approaches the game, though it does not by itself determine the outcome.
- FC Jazz stated on 30 August that they were 15 points clear of KPV and KuPS Akatemia, which occupied the relegation places.
- FC Jazz's 2 September schedule announcement identifies KPV as their first relegation-group opponent and says Jazz's league place is secure.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 15:56 · Europe/BucharestFC Jazz: Quality home performancefcjazz.com · 30 Aug 2026FC Jazz: Autumn schedule is readyfcjazz.com · 2 Sep 2026
FC Jazz are 6th in the Ykkönen with 33 points from 22 matches.
Their recent form is WDWDD, including a 2-0 home win over Inter Turku II on 29 August and a 2-0 away win at SalPa on 15 August. They have scored in each of those five matches and kept two clean sheets. This consistency could help them control the game against a struggling opponent.
- FC Jazz's last five results: W, D, W, D, D.
- They beat Inter Turku II 2-0 at home on 29 August 2026 and SalPa 2-0 away on 15 August 2026.
- They have scored in all five matches and kept two clean sheets.
FC Jazz defender E. Mattila had started three of the five recent fixtures with available lineups before Haka exercised the loan-recall clause on 22 August.
His absence removes a regular starter from the back line for the relegation-group opener. E. Vare, who started in the same position in two of those five matches when Mattila did not, is the likely replacement, but the defensive unit loses a player who had been involved in most recent lineups.
- FC Jazz reported on 22 August that Haka had exercised the recall clause in Mattila's loan agreement.
- The club stated that the recall applies for the remainder of the season.
- E. Mattila started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- E. Vare started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when E. Mattila did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 10 Sep 2026, 15:56 · Europe/BucharestFC Jazz: Three points will dofcjazz.com · 22 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

FC Jazz

1.49fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 67%

0.0ppshort

The market price implies a 67% chance, but our model estimates only 55%, so the odds offer no value despite the directional lean.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Jazz or Draw

1.21fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 83%

−5.0ppshort

The odds imply an 83% chance, but our estimate is 78%, so the price is slightly short and offers no value.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.14fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 87.7%

0.0ppshort

KPV's poor first-half defensive record suggests a goal is likely, but the odds are extremely short.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Jazz to score

1.25fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

KPV's away defensive record makes a clean sheet highly unlikely, and the odds reflect that.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
FC Jazz's superior home form and KPV's poor away defensive record give the hosts a clear edge, supported by motivation from the relegation group opener.
- FC Jazz home record: 3W-3D-5L, 14 goals scored, 16 conceded in 11 home matches
- KPV away record: 2W-2D-7L, 9 goals scored, 38 conceded in 11 away matches
- FC Jazz last 5 form: W-D-W-D-D (unbeaten), KPV last 5 form: L-L-W-L-L
- H2H last 5: FC Jazz 2 wins, KPV 2 wins, 1 draw
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFC JazzEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Jazz's recent unbeaten run and KPV's away struggles make the home side not losing highly likely.
- FC Jazz unbeaten in last 5 matches (W-D-W-D-D)
- KPV lost 7 of 11 away matches this season
- FC Jazz home record: 3W-3D-5L, KPV away record: 2W-2D-7L
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFC Jazz or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Jazz's first-half advantage is modest but supported by KPV's early defensive lapses.
- FC Jazz led at halftime in 40% of matches
- KPV trailed at halftime in 40% of matches
- FC Jazz first-half goals: 0.5 per match, KPV first-half goals conceded: 1.3 per match
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonFC JazzEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Jazz leading at halftime and fulltime is plausible given KPV's poor away form.
- FC Jazz led at halftime in 40% of matches and won 41% overall
- KPV trailed at halftime in 40% and lost 68% overall
- H2H: FC Jazz won 2 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonFC Jazz/FC JazzEstimated chance30%

Goals6 of 8 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
KPV's leaky away defense and FC Jazz's consistent scoring suggest a high-scoring match.
- KPV away matches average 4.27 total goals (47 goals in 11 games)
- FC Jazz home matches average 2.73 total goals (30 goals in 11 games)
- KPV conceded 68 goals in 22 matches (3.09 per game)
- FC Jazz scored 32 goals in 22 matches (1.45 per game)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown ability to score while also conceding regularly, making BTTS likely.
- FC Jazz scored in 9 of 11 home matches
- KPV scored in 7 of 11 away matches
- KPV conceded in 10 of 11 away matches
- FC Jazz conceded in 8 of 11 home matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KPV's poor first-half defensive record and FC Jazz's ability to score early make a first-half goal likely.
- FC Jazz first-half goals: 0.5 per match average
- KPV first-half goals conceded: 1.3 per match average
- KPV first-half goals: 0.6 per match average
- FC Jazz first-half goals conceded: 0.4 per match average
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
KPV's defensive frailty tends to worsen as matches progress, leading to second-half goals.
- KPV away matches average 4.27 total goals, with many conceded after halftime
- FC Jazz home matches average 2.73 total goals
- KPV conceded 68 goals in 22 matches, often in second half
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
KPV's away scoring struggles give FC Jazz a chance at a clean sheet, though not a high probability.
- FC Jazz kept clean sheets in 3 of 11 home matches
- KPV failed to score in 4 of 11 away matches
- KPV away goals: 9 in 11 matches (0.82 per game)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonKPV Kokkola not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KPV's away defensive record makes a clean sheet highly unlikely.
- KPV kept clean sheets in only 2 of 11 away matches
- FC Jazz scored in 9 of 11 home matches
- KPV conceded 38 goals in 11 away matches (3.45 per game)
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonFC Jazz to scoreEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
FC Jazz winning without conceding is possible but not probable given their own defensive inconsistencies.
- FC Jazz won 3 home matches, 2 of them without conceding
- KPV lost 7 away matches, 4 of them without scoring
- KPV away goals: 9 in 11 matches
BetBugs · Home Win to NilwonYesEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KPV winning without conceding is extremely unlikely given their away defensive record.
- KPV won only 2 away matches, both with goals conceded
- FC Jazz scored in 9 of 11 home matches
- KPV away clean sheets: 2 in 11 matches
BetBugs · Away Win to NilwonNoEstimated chance90%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The odds imply a 67% probability, but our estimate is only 55%, leaving no value and a negative edge of -12 points.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

W0-1FC jazzvKPV-jJul 2, 2026YKK

W0-2KPV-jvFC jazzApr 20, 2026YKK

D1-1FC jazzvKPV-jAug 23, 2025YKK

L3-1KPV-jvFC jazzJun 14, 2025YKK

L2-0KPV-jvFC jazzSep 28, 2024YKK

FC Jazz: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Ykkönen 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	FC Jazz	22	9	6	7	32-29	33	WDWDD
12	KPV Kokkola	22	4	3	15	24-68	15	LLWLL

18pt gap between teams

Recent Form

FC Jazz

W2-0Inter Turku IIAug 29YKK

D1-1VJSAug 23YKK

W2-0SalPaAug 15YKK

D1-1OLSAug 9YKK

D2-2RopsAug 5YKK

D2-2KuPS AkatemiaJul 30YKK

L0-1Tampere UnitedJun 25YKK

D1-1Inter Turku IIJun 12YKK

D1-1VJSJun 6YKK

L1-2SalPaMay 28YKK

W2-1OLSMay 24YKK

KPV Kokkola

L1-4JJKAug 29YKK

L2-4KuPS AkatemiaAug 21YKK

W3-2Inter Turku IIAug 16YKK

L1-2VJSAug 9YKK

L0-6Tampere UnitedAug 5YKK

W3-0SalPaAug 1YKK

L1-2OLSJul 26YKK

D1-1RopsJul 20YKK

L1-3TPVJul 11YKK

W1-0FC jazzJul 2YKK

L1-3PKKUJun 28YKK

L2-3JJKJun 13YKK

L1-4KuPS AkatemiaJun 5YKK

W4-2Inter Turku IIMay 29YKK

L0-5VJSMay 23YKK

Squad & Injuries

FC Jazz

24 available

Attackers3

Midfielders6

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

KPV Kokkola

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

No

FC Jazz

FC Jazz or Draw

Over 3.5

Yes

Over 0.5

FC Jazz to score

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals6 of 8 landed

Markets to Avoid

FC Jazz

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

FC Jazz

KPV Kokkola

Squad & Injuries

FC Jazz

KPV Kokkola