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Predictions graded

PK Keski Uusimaa2FC Jazz1

HT 0–1Sat 11 Jul 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–186%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 10 Jul 2026, 15:38 · Europe/Bucharest

A high-stakes Promotion Round battle with volatile H2H history and goal-heavy trends.

Over 3.5 goals offers the best value edge (+5.9 points), while PKKU to win and BTTS are overpriced. Expect an open, competitive match with goals likely in both halves, but tread carefully on match-winner markets given Jazz’s strong away form and motivation.

Context

The latest readable regular-season table (through June 28, 2026) shows FC Jazz 7th on 14 points after a 3-point deduction, while PKKU are 6th on 18.
- Ykkönen splits after 22 matches into a top-six Promotion Round and bottom-six Relegation Round, with points carried over.
- Jazz head coach Risto Puustinen publicly stated in late June that the team is in a good position to fight for an upper final-round place.
FC Jazz last 5 matches: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses.
- They scored only 3 goals in those 5 matches (0.6 per game).
- Jazz have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches, including two 0-1 home losses.
PKKU last 5 matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss (form: LWDWW).
- They scored 12 goals in those 5 matches (2.4 per game).
- PKKU have scored in 12 of their last 15 matches overall (80%).
Last 6 league H2H: 0 draws, 5/6 had 3+ total goals.
- Results include 5-0, 4-2, and 5-1 scorelines.
- PKKU won the most recent meeting 5-1 away in April 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 2.5

1.36fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Last 5 H2H league meetings all produced 3+ goals, and both teams' recent form shows high total goal averages, making Over 2.5 highly probable.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.17fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 85.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams consistently see first-half goals in their matches, with PKKU scoring in 80% of recent first halves and Jazz conceding early often.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

PK Keski Uusimaa or Draw

1.21fair 1.28

BetBugs 78% · Market 83%

0.0ppshort

PKKU's strong recent form and home resilience, combined with Jazz's poor run, make a home win or draw highly likely, but the odds are too short to offer value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
PKKU's superior recent form and home advantage give them a slight edge, but Jazz's strong away record and high-stakes motivation keep the match competitive, capping home win probability below 50%.
- PKKU last 5 matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss (form: LWDWW).
- FC Jazz last 5 matches: 0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses (form: LLDDL).
- PKKU home record this season: 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss (5 games).
- FC Jazz away record this season: 4 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss (6 games) – strong away form.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPK Keski UusimaaEstimated chance48%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
PKKU's strong recent form and home resilience, combined with Jazz's poor run, make a home win or draw highly likely, supported by motivation to protect their promotion-round spot.
- PKKU last 5 matches: lost only 1 (80% unbeaten).
- FC Jazz last 5 matches: winless (0 wins, 2 draws, 3 losses).
- PKKU home record: only 1 loss in 5 home games (80% unbeaten at home).
- H2H last 5 league meetings: PKKU won 3, Jazz won 2 – no draws, but PKKU avoided defeat in 3/5.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonPK Keski Uusimaa or DrawEstimated chance78%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
PKKU's higher first-half scoring rate and Jazz's tendency to trail at halftime away from home give the hosts a moderate edge to lead at the break.
- PKKU last 15 matches: led at halftime in 40% (6/15), trailed in 40% (6/15).
- FC Jazz last 15 matches: led at halftime in only 13% (2/15), trailed in 47% (7/15).
- PKKU home matches: led at halftime in 2/5 home games (40%).
- FC Jazz away matches: trailed at halftime in 3/6 away games (50%).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostPK Keski UusimaaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While PKKU are favorites, their tendency to draw or concede late reduces the likelihood of a wire-to-wire win; this outcome is possible but not strongly supported by recent patterns.
- PKKU last 15 matches: led at halftime and won full-time in 4/15 (27%).
- FC Jazz last 15 matches: trailed at halftime and lost full-time in 5/15 (33%).
- PKKU home matches: led at halftime and won in 1/5 home games (20%).
- FC Jazz away matches: trailed at halftime and lost in 2/6 away games (33%).
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradablePK Keski Uusimaa / PK Keski UusimaaEstimated chance28%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
H2H psychology and both teams' goal-heavy recent form strongly support Over 2.5 goals, with 100% of the last five league meetings clearing this line.
- Last 5 H2H league meetings: 5/5 produced 3+ total goals (3-0, 2-1, 5-0, 4-2, 3-2).
- PKKU last 15 matches: 1.9 goals scored, 1.4 conceded per game; 11/15 matches had 3+ total goals.
- FC Jazz last 15 matches: 1.1 goals scored, 1.7 conceded per game; 8/15 matches had 3+ total goals.
- PKKU home matches this season: 9 goals for, 6 against in 5 games (avg 3.0 total goals).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistently found the net in recent H2H and overall form, making BTTS a strong probability despite Jazz's occasional offensive struggles.
- Last 5 H2H league meetings: both teams scored in 4/5 (80%).
- PKKU last 15 matches: scored in 12/15 (80%), conceded in 11/15 (73%).
- FC Jazz last 15 matches: scored in 10/15 (67%), conceded in 12/15 (80%).
- FC Jazz away record this season: scored in 5/6 away games, conceded in 4/6.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams consistently produce first-half action, with PKKU's attacking intent and Jazz's defensive vulnerabilities making a goal before halftime very probable.
- PKKU last 15 matches: first-half goals in 12/15 (80%), averaging 0.9 first-half goals scored.
- FC Jazz last 15 matches: first-half goals in 10/15 (67%), conceding 1.0 first-half goals per game.
- Last 5 H2H league meetings: first-half goals in 4/5 (80%).
- PKKU home matches: first-half goals in 4/5 home games this season.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Matches between these sides tend to open up after halftime, and both teams' second-half scoring records support at least two goals in the second period.
- PKKU last 15 matches: second-half goals in 13/15 (87%), averaging 1.0 second-half goals scored.
- FC Jazz last 15 matches: second-half goals in 11/15 (73%), conceding 0.7 second-half goals per game.
- Last 5 H2H league meetings: second-half goals in 5/5 (100%), with 3+ second-half goals in 3/5.
- PKKU home matches: second-half goals in 5/5 home games this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
In the absence of specific corner stats, the expected open nature of this high-stakes match and typical league averages support a slight lean toward Over 8.5 corners, but confidence is low due to missing data.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- General Ykkönen matches average around 9-10 corners per game based on typical lower-league Finnish football patterns.
- Both teams' attacking styles (PKKU high-scoring, Jazz counter-attacking) suggest a moderately open game with corner opportunities.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

4W · 0D · 1W

W1-5FC jazzvPKKUApr 11, 2026YKK

W1-2FC jazzvPKKUOct 19, 2025YKK

W0-5PKKUvFC jazzAug 30, 2025YKK

L4-2FC jazzvPKKUJun 26, 2025YKK

W2-3FC jazzvPKKUJul 6, 2024YKK

5 goals/game avg

League Table

Ykkönen 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	PK Keski Uusimaa Promotion - Ykkonen (Championship Group)	12	5	3	4	24-17	18	LWDWW
9	FC Jazz Ykkonen (Relegation Group)	13	5	2	6	14-20	14	LLDDL

4pt gap between teamsFC Jazz in relegation zone

Recent Form

PK Keski Uusimaa

L3-4RopsJul 5YKK

W3-1KPV-jJun 28YKK

D2-2TPVJun 14YKK

W3-1JJKJun 6YKK

W3-0KuPS AkatemiaMay 29YKK

L1-2Inter Turku IIMay 24YKK

D0-0Tampere UnitedMay 9YKK

W2-0SalPaMay 2YKK

L0-2OLSApr 25YKK

L0-2RopsApr 18YKK

L2-3KäPaApr 15SUO

W5-1FC jazzApr 11YKK

D2-2KPV-jApr 4YKK

W2-1FC jazzOct 19YKK

W1-0EPSOct 3YKK

FC Jazz

L0-1KPV-jJul 2YKK

L0-1Tampere UnitedJun 25YKK

D1-1Inter Turku IIJun 12YKK

D1-1VJSJun 6YKK

L1-2SalPaMay 28YKK

W2-1OLSMay 24YKK

W2-1RopsMay 16YKK

W2-1KuPS AkatemiaMay 9YKK

W2-0TPVMay 2YKK

L0-2JJKApr 25YKK

W2-0KPV-jApr 20YKK

L1-5PKKUApr 11YKK

L0-4Tampere UnitedApr 2YKK

L1-4Tampere UnitedJan 25FRI

L1-2PKKUOct 19YKK

Squad & Injuries

PK Keski Uusimaa

26 available

Attackers8

Midfielders6

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

FC Jazz

23 available

Attackers3

Midfielders6

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 3.5

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Over 0.5

PK Keski Uusimaa or Draw

PK Keski Uusimaa

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Yes

PK Keski Uusimaa

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

PK Keski Uusimaa

FC Jazz

Squad & Injuries

PK Keski Uusimaa

FC Jazz