YkkönenFull time

Predictions graded

FC Jazz0KPV Kokkola1

HT 0–0Thu 2 Jul 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions2–722%

Edges2–722%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Jul 2026, 08:10 · Europe/Bucharest

FC Jazz are strongly motivated for an upper-playoff push and face a KPV Kokkola side with the league's worst away defence (24 goals conceded in 6 games).

A home win and plenty of goals are likely, but the best value is in Over 3.5 goals (1.80) and Over 1.5 second-half goals (1.80), while short-odds favourites like Over 2.5 goals and BTTS offer no edge.

Context

On 17 June, FC Jazz stated they were 1 point off the upper playoff places.
- On 23 June, head coach Risto Puustinen framed the second round as a fight for an upper-playoff berth.
- KPV Kokkola are bottom of the table with a -34 goal difference and no realistic promotion or relegation pressure.
KPV Kokkola away record: 0 wins, 2 draws, 4 losses, with 3 goals scored and 24 conceded.
- They have conceded 5, 6, 6, 4, and 2 goals in their last five away matches.
- FC Jazz scored 2 goals in the reverse fixture, a 2-0 away win in April 2026.
FC Jazz home half-time record: 1 lead, 3 draws, 2 deficits in 6 matches.
- They average only 0.2 first-half goals per game overall.
- KPV Kokkola have trailed at half-time in 4 of 6 away matches, but FC Jazz's own slow starts may limit early dominance.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

FC Jazz

1.47fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 68%

0.0ppshort

KPV Kokkola are winless away (0W-2D-4L) with a -21 goal difference, while FC Jazz have explicit upper-playoff motivation and won the reverse fixture 2-0.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Jazz or Draw

1.15fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 87%

−7.0ppshort

KPV Kokkola have 0 away wins and only 2 draws in 6, making a home win or draw extremely likely given FC Jazz's motivation and H2H edge.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.30fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

KPV Kokkola's away defensive record is catastrophic (4.0 goals conceded per away game), and combined with FC Jazz's need to win for playoff push, over 2.5 goals is strongly supported.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.44fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

FC Jazz rarely keeps a clean sheet at home, and KPV Kokkola has managed to score in some away games despite heavy losses, making both teams scoring a reasonable outcome.

Team to ScorelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

FC Jazz to score

1.10fair 1.11

BetBugs 90% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

KPV Kokkola's away defense is the worst in the league, conceding in every away match, so an away clean sheet is extremely improbable.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
FC Jazz has strong motivation for upper-playoff chase and a superior H2H record, while KPV Kokkola has been abysmal away (3 goals scored, 24 conceded), making a home win likely.
- FC Jazz home record: 1W-1D-4L (6 matches), but recent form last 5: 2W-2D-1L, including away wins.
- KPV Kokkola away record: 0W-2D-4L, goals for 3, goals against 24 in 6 away matches.
- H2H last 5: FC Jazz won 2, drew 2, lost 1; most recent meeting (Apr 2026) FC Jazz won 2-0 away.
- Motivation: FC Jazz explicitly targeting upper-playoff spot, 1 point off; KPV bottom with -34 goal difference.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFC JazzEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KPV Kokkola's dreadful away form (0 wins) and overall season struggles make a home win or draw highly probable for FC Jazz, who are motivated and have a solid H2H edge.
- KPV Kokkola away record: 0 wins in 6, 2 draws, 4 losses.
- FC Jazz home record: only 1 win in 6, but 1 draw; combined home win/draw rate 33%.
- H2H: FC Jazz unbeaten in 3 of last 5 (2W, 1D).
- KPV Kokkola overall form: 1 win in last 12 league matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostFC Jazz or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
KPV Kokkola's tendency to trail at half-time away gives FC Jazz a chance to lead, but FC Jazz's own poor first-half home record limits confidence.
- FC Jazz leading at half time in 20% of matches overall, but at home only 1 of 6.
- KPV Kokkola trailing at half time in 53% of matches, away trailing in 4 of 6.
- H2H last 5: FC Jazz led at half time in 2 meetings, drew in 2, lost in 1.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostFC JazzEstimated chance40%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Jazz lacks the dominance to win both halves, especially at home where they've struggled, making a both-halves win very unlikely.
- FC Jazz has not won both halves in any home match this season.
- KPV Kokkola has not lost both halves in 2 of 6 away matches (drew one half in those).
- FC Jazz overall win both halves rate: 0% in 12 matches.
BetBugs · Win Both Halvesnot gradableNoEstimated chance85%

Goals2 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
KPV Kokkola's away defensive record is catastrophic (4.0 goals conceded per away game), and combined with FC Jazz's need to win for playoff push, over 2.5 goals is strongly supported.
- KPV Kokkola away matches: average total goals 4.5 (3 scored, 24 conceded in 6 games).
- FC Jazz home matches: average total goals 2.83 (5 scored, 12 conceded in 6 games).
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- KPV Kokkola last 5 away matches: conceded 5, 6, 6, 4, 2 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
FC Jazz rarely keeps a clean sheet at home, and KPV Kokkola has managed to score in some away games despite heavy losses, making both teams scoring a reasonable outcome.
- FC Jazz scored in 4 of last 5 home matches.
- KPV Kokkola scored in 3 of last 5 away matches, but conceded in all.
- H2H: both teams scored in 3 of last 5 meetings.
- FC Jazz home clean sheet rate: 0% (conceded in all 6 home games).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
FC Jazz has not kept a single home clean sheet all season, and KPV Kokkola has shown occasional away scoring ability, making a home clean sheet very unlikely.
- FC Jazz home clean sheets: 0 in 6 matches this season.
- FC Jazz conceded in 100% of home games, averaging 2.0 goals against per home game.
- KPV Kokkola scored in 3 of last 5 away matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonKPV Kokkola to scoreEstimated chance85%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KPV Kokkola's away defense is the worst in the league, conceding in every away match, so an away clean sheet is extremely improbable.
- KPV Kokkola away clean sheets: 0 in 6 matches.
- KPV Kokkola conceded in 100% of away games, averaging 4.0 goals against per away game.
- FC Jazz scored in 4 of last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostFC Jazz to scoreEstimated chance90%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
KPV Kokkola frequently concedes early, especially away, and H2H history shows first-half goals are common, supporting over 0.5 first-half goals.
- FC Jazz first half goals: 0.2 per game overall, but at home they scored in first half in 2 of 6 games.
- KPV Kokkola first half goals conceded: 1.5 per game overall, away they conceded first half goals in 5 of 6 games.
- Last 5 H2H: first half goals in 4 of 5 meetings.
- KPV Kokkola trailing at half time in 53% of matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches tend to see more goals in the second half, especially KPV Kokkola's away games where defenses tire, making over 1.5 second-half goals likely.
- FC Jazz home second half goals: 5 of 6 home games had over 1.5 second half goals.
- KPV Kokkola away second half goals: 5 of 6 away games had over 1.5 second half goals.
- Overall, FC Jazz matches average 2.9 total goals, KPV away matches average 4.5 total goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner data, we rely on league averages and match context; an open game with many attacks suggests a moderate chance of over 8.5 corners.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- General Ykkönen average corners per game is around 9-10 based on typical Finnish league stats.
- Match expected to be open with attacking intent from FC Jazz and counter-attacks from KPV.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

W0-2KPV-jvFC jazzApr 20, 2026YKK

D1-1FC jazzvKPV-jAug 23, 2025YKK

L3-1KPV-jvFC jazzJun 14, 2025YKK

L2-0KPV-jvFC jazzSep 28, 2024YKK

D3-3FC jazzvKPV-jAug 24, 2024YKK

3.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Ykkönen 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	FC Jazz Ykkonen (Relegation Group)	12	5	2	5	14-19	14	LDDLW
12	KPV Kokkola Ykkonen (Relegation Group)	12	1	2	9	10-44	5	LLLWL

9pt gap between teamsFC Jazz in relegation zoneKPV Kokkola in relegation zone

Recent Form

FC Jazz

L0-1Tampere UnitedJun 25YKK

D1-1Inter Turku IIJun 12YKK

D1-1VJSJun 6YKK

L1-2SalPaMay 28YKK

W2-1OLSMay 24YKK

W2-1RopsMay 16YKK

W2-1KuPS AkatemiaMay 9YKK

W2-0TPVMay 2YKK

L0-2JJKApr 25YKK

W2-0KPV-jApr 20YKK

L1-5PKKUApr 11YKK

L0-4Tampere UnitedApr 2YKK

L1-4Tampere UnitedJan 25FRI

L1-2PKKUOct 19YKK

L1-2RopsOct 4YKK

KPV Kokkola

L1-3PKKUJun 28YKK

L2-3JJKJun 13YKK

L1-4KuPS AkatemiaJun 5YKK

W4-2Inter Turku IIMay 29YKK

L0-5VJSMay 23YKK

L0-6Tampere UnitedMay 16YKK

L0-2SJK AkatemiaMay 13SUO

L0-6SalPaMay 9YKK

L0-4OLSMay 2YKK

W4-0RoPoApr 29SUO

L0-7RopsApr 25YKK

L0-2FC jazzApr 20YKK

D0-0TPVApr 11YKK

D2-2PKKUApr 4YKK

L1-3KuPS AkatemiaOct 19YKK

Squad & Injuries

FC Jazz

23 available

Attackers3

Midfielders6

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

KPV Kokkola

22 available

Attackers5

Midfielders7

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 3.5

Over 1.5

FC Jazz

FC Jazz or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

KPV Kokkola to score

FC Jazz to score

Over 0.5

Result0 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 6 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

No

Over 2.5

Yes

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

FC Jazz

KPV Kokkola

Squad & Injuries

FC Jazz

KPV Kokkola