2. BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

Darmstadt2Arminia Bielefeld1

HT 1–0Fri 11 Sept 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges3–175%

PossPossession 48%–52%ShotsShots 12–16On targetOn target 6–4CornersCorners 4–8

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 09:00 · Europe/Bucharest

Darmstadt's poor form and defensive suspension give Bielefeld the edge, but the away win is fairly priced.

The best value is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.15, with a 9-point edge. Double Chance Draw or Bielefeld at 1.45 is a safer play with a small edge.

Context

Darmstadt are in the relegation zone after four matches.
They have one point from four games and have lost both away matches without scoring. At home they drew with Holstein Kiel and lost to Hannover 96, so this match is an early chance to improve their position.
- Darmstadt are 18th with 1 point from 4 matches (0W, 1D, 3L).
- They have scored 2 goals and conceded 7 in the league.
- Home record: 0W, 1D, 1L, 2 goals for, 3 against.
Darmstadt defender A. Vukotić is serving the second match of a two-game league suspension after his red card against Hannover on 30 August.
Darmstadt must reorganise its central defence without Vukotić for this fixture. The club confirmed he was unavailable for the 5 September match at Kaiserslautern, so his absence is already known and the team has had time to prepare alternatives. The linked analysis sees Bielefeld with a medium-confidence edge in the match-winner market, partly reflecting Darmstadt's weakened defensive options.
- The DFB imposed a two-match suspension in league matches after Vukotić's dismissal against Hannover on 30 August.
- Darmstadt listed Vukotić as suspended and unavailable for the 5 September league match at Kaiserslautern.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 08:58 · Europe/BucharestDFB-Sportgericht: Zwei Spiele Sperre für Darmstadts Vukoticwww.dfb.de · 1 Sep 2026SV Darmstadt 98: Let’s not be influencedwww.sv98.de · 4 Sep 2026
Arminia Bielefeld are 10th with four points.
Their away record is 0 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 2 goals scored and 6 conceded. They lost 4-1 at Nürnberg and 2-1 at Karlsruhe, so they have struggled away from home.
- Arminia Bielefeld away record: 0W, 0D, 2L, 2 goals for, 6 against.
- Lost 4-1 at 1. FC Nürnberg on 2026-08-29.
- Lost 2-1 at Karlsruher SC on 2026-08-08.
Darmstadt's recent league form is poor.
They lost 3-0 at Kaiserslautern, 1-0 at home to Hannover, and 1-0 at Dynamo Dresden, with a 2-2 home draw against Holstein Kiel. That run leaves them bottom of the table.
- Lost 3-0 at 1. FC Kaiserslautern on 2026-09-05.
- Lost 1-0 at home to Hannover 96 on 2026-08-30.
- Lost 1-0 at Dynamo Dresden on 2026-08-16.
- Drew 2-2 at home with Holstein Kiel on 2026-08-08.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.53fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and Bielefeld's away games have been particularly open.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Darmstadt's relegation form and poor start contrast with Bielefeld's stronger recent attacking output, giving the visitors the edge.
- Darmstadt are 18th with 1 point from 4 matches (0W 1D 3L), scoring 2 and conceding 7.
- Arminia Bielefeld are 10th with 4 points from 4 matches (1W 1D 2L), scoring 7 and conceding 8.
- Darmstadt have lost their last 3 league matches, while Bielefeld won their last home match 6-1 vs Hertha BSC.
- H2H last 5: Bielefeld won 2, Darmstadt won 1, 2 draws.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostArminia BielefeldEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Darmstadt's winless run and Bielefeld's relative stability make the away side or draw the safest match-result play.
- Darmstadt have not won in their last 4 league matches (0W 1D 3L).
- Arminia Bielefeld have lost only 2 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- H2H last 5: Darmstadt won only 1, with 2 draws and 2 Bielefeld wins.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Arminia BielefeldEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams often start cautiously, making a level first half a plausible outcome.
- Darmstadt were level at half-time in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Arminia Bielefeld were level at half-time in 2 of their last 5 league matches.
- H2H last 5: 2 matches were level at half-time.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Bielefeld's stronger second-half scoring and Darmstadt's defensive frailty after the break give the visitors a slight edge.
- Arminia Bielefeld have scored 11 second-half goals in their last 5 league matches.
- Darmstadt have conceded 7 second-half goals in their last 5 league matches.
- Bielefeld's away matches have seen them score 2 second-half goals in 2 games.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostArminia BielefeldEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A level first half followed by a Bielefeld win is a plausible but low-probability sequence given both teams' inconsistency.
- Darmstadt have been level at half-time in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Arminia Bielefeld have won 2 of their last 5 league matches.
- Bielefeld's away form is poor (0W 0D 2L), but Darmstadt are winless.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Arminia BielefeldEstimated chance22%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, and Bielefeld's away games have been particularly open.
- Darmstadt's last 5 league matches averaged 3.0 total goals (15 goals in 5).
- Arminia Bielefeld's last 5 league matches averaged 3.4 total goals (17 goals in 5).
- Bielefeld's away matches this season have seen 8 goals in 2 games (4.0 per game).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have shown consistent scoring ability, and their recent matches frequently feature goals at both ends.
- Darmstadt have scored in 3 of their last 5 league matches.
- Arminia Bielefeld have scored in 4 of their last 5 league matches.
- Both teams scored in 3 of Darmstadt's last 5 league matches and in 3 of Bielefeld's last 5.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined first-half scoring averages suggest a decent chance of at least two goals before the break.
- Darmstadt average 0.9 first-half goals for and 0.9 against in recent matches.
- Arminia Bielefeld average 1.1 first-half goals for and 0.9 against.
- Combined first-half goal average is 1.9 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been more productive for both teams, supporting over 1.5 goals after the break.
- Darmstadt's last 5 league matches produced 9 second-half goals (1.8 per game).
- Arminia Bielefeld's last 5 league matches produced 11 second-half goals (2.2 per game).
- Both teams tend to concede more in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average suggests a close call on the 9.5 line.
- Darmstadt average 4.4 corners per match and concede 5.6 opponent corners.
- Arminia Bielefeld average 6.3 corners per match and concede 4.5 opponent corners.
- Combined average corners per match is 10.7.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined shots-on-target averages are just above the line, making this a marginal over play.
- Darmstadt average 3.8 shots on target per match and concede 5.3 opponent shots on target.
- Arminia Bielefeld average 4.8 shots on target per match and concede 4.3 opponent shots on target.
- Combined average shots on target per match is 9.1.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate discipline records, and the combined average is close to the 3.5 line.
- Darmstadt average 1.5 yellow cards per match and 0.6 red cards.
- Arminia Bielefeld average 1.1 yellow cards per match and 0 red cards.
- Combined average cards per match is 3.2 (including reds).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 43% leaves no cushion vs our 45% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

L2-1Arminia BielefeldvSV Darmstadt 98Apr 4, 20262.

D2-2SV Darmstadt 98vArminia BielefeldNov 1, 20252.

L3-1Arminia BielefeldvSV Darmstadt 98Mar 11, 20232.

D1-1SV Darmstadt 98vArminia BielefeldSep 4, 20222.

L1-0Arminia BielefeldvSV Darmstadt 98Jun 18, 20202.

Arminia Bielefeld unbeaten in 5 meetings2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

2. Bundesliga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
18	Darmstadt Relegation	4	0	1	3	2-7	1	LLLD
10	Arminia Bielefeld	4	1	1	2	7-8	4	DLWL

3pt gap between teamsDarmstadt in relegation zone

Recent Form

Darmstadt

L0-31. FC KaiserslauternSep 52.

L0-1Hannover 96Aug 302.

W2-1FC Carl Zeiss JenaAug 23DFB

L0-1Dynamo DresdenAug 162.

D2-2Holstein KielAug 82.

D0-0PortsmouthAug 1FRI

W7-2SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachJul 25FRI

W4-1FC Astoria WalldorfJul 17FRI

W5-1FC 08 HomburgJul 14FRI

L0-2SC Paderborn 07May 172.

D1-1Preußen MünsterMay 102.

L1-2Karlsruher SCMay 32.

D3-3SV ElversbergApr 252.

L2-3SpVgg Greuther FürthApr 192.

L0-2Hannover 96Apr 112.

Arminia Bielefeld

D2-2FC St. PauliSep 42.

L1-41. FC NürnbergAug 292.

W3-0Energie CottbusAug 162.

L1-2Karlsruher SCAug 82.

D1-1MSV DuisburgJul 25FRI

W4-0BolognaJul 18FRI

W10-0ImstJul 14FRI

W3-0FC GuterslohJul 8FRI

W7-3PeckelohJul 2FRI

W6-1Hertha BSCMay 172.

L0-21. FC KaiserslauternMay 82.

D1-1VfL BochumMay 22.

W3-2Preußen MünsterApr 252.

D1-11. FC NürnbergApr 182.

L1-4Karlsruher SCApr 102.

Squad & Injuries

Darmstadt

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders11

Goalkeeper2

Arminia Bielefeld

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or Arminia Bielefeld

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Yes

Result0 of 5 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 3.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Darmstadt

Arminia Bielefeld

Squad & Injuries

Darmstadt

Arminia Bielefeld