2. BundesligaFull time

Predictions graded

Arminia Bielefeld6Hertha Berlin1

HT 0–1Sun 17 May 2026, 13:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–544%

Edges2–433%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 27–9On targetOn target 12–3CornersCorners 9–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 13 May 2026, 18:21 · Europe/Bucharest

The last five H2Hs all went under 2.5 goals, and both teams' season profiles support another low-scoring match.

The best value is on Under 2.5 goals at 2.90 (70% estimated probability vs. 34.5% implied), with Under 1.5 first-half goals at 1.75 also offering a strong edge. A draw is a likely outcome but offers less betting value.

Context

Last five H2Hs: 1-1, 1-1, 2-0, 0-0, 1-0.
- Only one of those five matches saw more than one first-half goal.
- Both teams average under 1.0 first-half goals this season.
Arminia are 16th in the 2. Bundesliga, in the relegation playoff spot.
- Hertha are 6th, 10 points clear of the drop zone with two games left.
- Arminia have lost only 5 of 16 home matches this season.
Hertha lost 1-0 at Magdeburg and 5-2 at Paderborn in their last three away games.
- They failed to score in those two losses.
- Earlier in the season, Hertha won 8 of 16 away matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The historical H2H draw tendency, combined with Arminia's home resilience and Hertha's inconsistent away form, points to a stalemate as a likely result.
- 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings ended in draws.
- Arminia Bielefeld home record: 6 wins, 5 draws, 5 losses; Hertha Berlin away record: 8 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses.
- Arminia's recent form: LDWDL (last 5); Hertha's recent form: WLLDL (last 5).
- Arminia are 16th with relegation pressure; Hertha are 6th with little to play for, which could level motivation.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Arminia's home solidity and desperation for points to avoid relegation make them unlikely to lose against a Hertha side with nothing at stake.
- Arminia Bielefeld have lost only 5 of 16 home matches this season.
- Hertha Berlin have lost 4 of 16 away matches, but their recent away form is mixed (WLLDL in last 5 overall).
- Arminia are fighting relegation and have a strong home record against mid-table sides.
- H2H at Arminia: 1 win, 1 draw in last 2 home meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonArminia Bielefeld or DrawEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The tendency for slow starts and the H2H pattern of level scores at the break suggest a draw at half-time is the most probable outcome.
- Arminia Bielefeld led at half-time in only 33% of their last 15 matches, trailed in 40%.
- Hertha Berlin led at half-time in 40% of their last 15 matches, trailed in 20%.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, 3 were draws at half-time.
- Arminia's home first-half record: 5 wins, 6 draws, 5 losses in 16 matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both intervals is a plausible but low-probability outcome given the teams' tendencies, supported by the H2H and season draw rates.
- 2 of the last 5 H2H meetings ended in draws, with 1 being a draw at half-time and full-time.
- Arminia Bielefeld have drawn 5 of 16 home matches; Hertha Berlin have drawn 4 of 16 away matches.
- Both teams have a moderate draw rate: Arminia 27% overall, Hertha 27% overall.
- The match context (relegation fight vs mid-table) could lead to a cautious, balanced game.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The strong H2H pattern of low-scoring encounters, combined with both teams' tendency for tight games, makes Under 2.5 the most probable outcome.
- Last 5 competitive H2Hs all finished under 2.5 goals (1-1, 1-1, 2-0, 0-0, 1-0).
- Arminia Bielefeld home matches average 3.0 total goals (28 for, 20 against in 16 games), but 9 of 16 stayed under 2.5.
- Hertha Berlin away matches average 3.1 total goals (30 for, 20 against in 16 games), but 7 of 16 stayed under 2.5.
- Both teams have moderate scoring rates: Arminia 1.5 goals per game overall, Hertha 1.4 goals per game overall.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have consistent scoring records and defensive vulnerabilities, suggesting a decent chance each finds the net despite the low total goals expectation.
- Arminia Bielefeld have scored in 13 of their last 15 matches overall.
- Hertha Berlin have scored in 11 of their last 15 matches overall.
- Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
- Arminia home record: 28 goals scored, 20 conceded in 16 games; Hertha away record: 30 scored, 20 conceded in 16 games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start cautiously, and the H2H history shows a pattern of low-scoring first halves, making Under 1.5 first-half goals highly likely.
- Arminia Bielefeld average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.8 conceded over the last 15 matches.
- Hertha Berlin average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded over the last 15 matches.
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, only 1 match had more than 1 first-half goal (2 goals in a 2-0 Hertha win).
- Arminia's recent home matches: 4 of last 5 had under 1.5 first-half goals.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While the overall match is expected to be low-scoring, the second half could see more action as Arminia push for a winner, but the evidence is mixed, hence low confidence.
- Arminia Bielefeld score 60% of their goals in the second half (0.9 first half vs 1.5 total).
- Hertha Berlin score 53% of their goals in the second half (0.9 first half vs 1.7 total).
- In 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings, the second half produced at least 1 goal, but only 1 had over 1.5.
- Both teams have shown late-game vulnerability: Arminia concede 1.6 per game, Hertha 1.5 per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, and the H2H history shows a tendency for matches to reach 9+ corners, making Over 9.5 a reasonable bet.
- Arminia Bielefeld average 5.9 corners per game overall, Hertha Berlin average 4.5 corners per game.
- Arminia's home matches average 11.2 total corners (5.9 for, 5.3 against).
- Hertha's away matches average 9.8 total corners (4.5 for, 5.3 against).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total corners were: 10, 10, 3, 8, 9 (average 8.0, but 3 of 5 had 9+).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The disciplinary records of both teams and the competitive nature of the match, especially with Arminia fighting relegation, suggest a card count exceeding 4.5.
- Arminia Bielefeld average 1.7 yellow cards per game, Hertha Berlin average 2.0 yellow cards per game.
- Arminia's home matches average 3.4 total cards (1.7 for, 1.7 against).
- Hertha's away matches average 4.1 total cards (2.0 for, 2.1 against).
- In the last 5 H2H meetings, total cards were: 5, 4, 3, 2, 4 (average 3.6, but 3 of 5 had 4+).
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 1W

D1-1Hertha BSCvArminia BielefeldDec 19, 20252.

D1-1Arminia BielefeldvHertha BerlinApr 30, 2022BL

L2-0Hertha BerlinvArminia BielefeldDec 11, 2021BL

D0-0Hertha BerlinvArminia BielefeldMay 9, 2021BL

W1-0Arminia BielefeldvHertha BerlinJan 10, 2021BL

Arminia Bielefeld: 2 clean sheetsHertha Berlin: 2 clean sheets1.4 goals/game avg

League Table

2. Bundesliga 2025/2026

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Arminia Bielefeld 2. Bundesliga (Relegation)	33	9	9	15	47-50	36	LDWDL
6	Hertha Berlin	33	14	9	10	46-38	51	WLLDL

15pt gap between teamsArminia Bielefeld in relegation zone

Recent Form

Arminia Bielefeld

L0-21. FC KaiserslauternMay 82.

D1-1VfL BochumMay 22.

W3-2Preußen MünsterApr 252.

D1-11. FC NürnbergApr 182.

L1-4Karlsruher SCApr 102.

W2-1SV Darmstadt 98Apr 42.

W4-1Eintracht BraunschweigMar 25FRI

L1-3SV ElversbergMar 212.

D2-2SC Paderborn 07Mar 142.

L0-1FC Schalke 04Mar 62.

L0-1Hannover 96Feb 282.

L1-2SpVgg Greuther FürthFeb 202.

W2-01. FC MagdeburgFeb 152.

W3-2Eintracht BraunschweigFeb 82.

D1-1Dynamo DresdenFeb 12.

Hertha Berlin

W2-1SpVgg Greuther FürthMay 102.

L0-11. FC MagdeburgMay 32.

L0-1Holstein KielApr 252.

D1-1Eintracht BraunschweigApr 192.

L0-11. FC KaiserslauternApr 112.

W1-0Dynamo DresdenApr 42.

W5-2Fortuna DüsseldorfMar 222.

D1-1VfL BochumMar 142.

W2-1Preußen MünsterMar 82.

W2-11. FC NürnbergMar 12.

L2-5SC Paderborn 07Feb 222.

L2-3Hannover 96Feb 142.

W3-0SV ElversbergFeb 72.

D2-2SV Darmstadt 98Feb 12.

D2-2Karlsruher SCJan 242.

Squad & Injuries

Arminia Bielefeld

25 available

Attackers8

Midfielders6

Defenders9

Goalkeeper2

Hertha Berlin

30 available

Attackers4

Midfielders12

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 2.5

Under 1.5

Draw

Draw

Over 4.5

Arminia Bielefeld or Draw

Over 9.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Arminia Bielefeld

Hertha Berlin

Squad & Injuries

Arminia Bielefeld

Hertha Berlin