Fenerbahce1Roma1

HT 0–1Thu 10 Sept 2026, 16:45 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges2–167%

PossPossession 42%–58%ShotsShots 11–8On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 1–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 5 Sep 2026, 05:45 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is on Over 2.5 goals at 1.80, with our model estimating a 62% probability versus the implied 55.6%.

Fenerbahce's home strength and Roma's attacking quality support a high-scoring opener, though the match winner market offers no edge. Avoid first-half goals and total home goals markets, which are overpriced.

Context

Fenerbahce are in the Champions League and have been playing well recently.
They beat Lyon 2-1 away on 2026-08-26 and Samsunspor 2-0 away on 2026-08-30. Their only recent loss was 1-2 at Gençlerbirliği S.K. on 2026-08-15. This form suggests they are confident and capable of scoring, but the loss shows they can be vulnerable away from home.
- Won 2-1 at Lyon on 2026-08-26 in Champions League.
- Won 2-0 at Samsunspor on 2026-08-30 in Süper Lig.
- Lost 1-2 at Gençlerbirliği S.K. on 2026-08-15 in Süper Lig.
Fenerbahce midfielder M. Guendouzi has started all five recent fixtures with available lineups, totalling 446 minutes.
His confirmed two-match UEFA ban removes a regular starter from the home midfield for this opener. Fenerbahce must adjust their available midfield selection, though the claim does not specify a direct replacement.
- UEFA's Control, Ethics and Disciplinary Body imposed a four-match UEFA club-competition suspension on Guendouzi.
- Two matches are deferred for a one-year probationary period, leaving an immediate two-match ban.
- M. Guendouzi started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups, totalling 446 minutes across 5 appearances.
ConfirmedSources checked 5 Sep 2026, 05:44 · Europe/BucharestAnadolu Ajansı: Fenerbahce to appeal UEFA sanctions on Guendouzi, Greenwoodwww.aa.com.tr · 4 Sep 2026UEFA disciplinary mattersdisciplinary.uefa.com · 4 Sep 2026
Roma are in the Champions League and have started their Serie A season well.
They beat Lecce 4-0 away on 2026-08-31 and Fiorentina 4-0 at home on 2026-08-24. These results show they are in good scoring form and defensively solid, but both opponents are weaker than Fenerbahce.
- Won 4-0 at Lecce on 2026-08-31 in Serie A.
- Won 4-0 at home against Fiorentina on 2026-08-24 in Serie A.
Roma midfielder L. Pellegrini has not started any of the five recent fixtures with available lineups, with B. Cristante starting in his position each time.
Coach Gasperini indicated Pellegrini has only begun limited group work and may not be ready until after the international break. His availability remains a watch item, leaving Roma's midfield selection uncertain for the trip.
- Gasperini said Pellegrini had begun working a little with the group.
- The coach indicated match readiness could come against Inter or after the break.
- L. Pellegrini started 0 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- B. Cristante started in the same position in 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when L. Pellegrini did not start.
To watchSources checked 5 Sep 2026, 05:44 · Europe/BucharestAS Roma: Gasperini press conference before Roma-Atalantawww.asroma.com · 4 Sep 2026AS Roma: Champions League league-phase squadwww.asroma.com · 2 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.70fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 58.8%

0.0ppshort

Both sides consistently find the net and concede, supporting both teams to score.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Home advantage and consistent scoring give Fenerbahce a slight edge, but Roma's quality makes this a close contest.
- Fenerbahce have strong home form with 4 wins and 1 draw in last 5 home matches.
- Roma have mixed away form with 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in last 5 away matches.
- Fenerbahce average 2.3 goals per match overall.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostFenerbahceEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Fenerbahce's home resilience and Roma's occasional away struggles make Fenerbahce or draw a solid double chance.
- Fenerbahce have not lost at home in last 5 home matches.
- Roma have lost 2 of last 5 away matches.
- Fenerbahce's overall form is strong with only 2 losses in last 15.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonFenerbahce or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With both teams strong in the first half, a draw at halftime is a plausible outcome.
- Fenerbahce led at halftime in 60% of matches.
- Roma led at halftime in 60% of matches.
- Both teams have similar first-half strength.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Fenerbahce's home advantage may help them edge the second half, though confidence is low.
- Fenerbahce have a strong home record in second halves.
- Roma have conceded in second halves in several away matches.
- Fenerbahce's overall goal difference is positive.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonFenerbahceEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a Fenerbahce win is a possible scenario given their home strength.
- Fenerbahce often draw at halftime but win full time.
- Roma have had mixed first-half results.
- Fenerbahce's home form is strong.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/FenerbahceEstimated chance18%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have strong attacking output and moderate defensive vulnerabilities, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Fenerbahce average 2.3 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Roma average 2.5 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over last 15 matches.
- Combined average total goals in recent matches is 3.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides consistently find the net and concede, supporting both teams to score.
- Fenerbahce scored in 13 of last 15 matches.
- Roma scored in 12 of last 15 matches.
- Both teams conceded in a majority of recent matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, increasing the chance of over 1.5 first-half goals.
- Fenerbahce average 1.2 first-half goals scored.
- Roma average 1.3 first-half goals scored.
- Combined first-half goal average is 2.5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring is common for both teams, supporting over 1.5 goals in the second half.
- Fenerbahce average 1.1 second-half goals scored.
- Roma average 1.2 second-half goals scored.
- Both teams often score after halftime.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, making over 9.5 corners likely.
- Fenerbahce average 6.6 corners per match.
- Roma average 4.6 corners per match.
- Combined average corners is 11.2.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce high shots on target numbers, supporting over 9.5 total shots on target.
- Fenerbahce average 7.5 shots on target per match.
- Roma average 6.1 shots on target per match.
- Combined average shots on target is 13.6.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The match could see a moderate number of cards, with over 3.5 cards a close call.
- Fenerbahce average 2.2 yellow cards per match.
- Roma average 1.4 yellow cards per match.
- Combined average yellow cards is 3.6.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%