Derby County0West Bromwich Albion1

HT 0–1Wed 9 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions4–736%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 67%–33%ShotsShots 13–4On targetOn target 3–1CornersCorners 11–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 05:46 · Europe/Bucharest

West Brom are the value side against a depleted Derby, with the double chance (Draw or West Brom) offering a solid edge at 72% estimated probability.

Over 2.5 goals and both teams to score are also worth considering, but avoid Derby home win and first-half over 0.5 goals due to poor value.

Context

Derby sit 16th with four points from four games, one point above the relegation line.
Their home record is winless: a 3-0 loss to Swansea on 29 August and a 2-2 draw with Cardiff on 22 August. They have conceded five goals in those two home games, so West Brom may find chances. However, the sample is small and Derby did win away at Portsmouth on 1 September.
- Derby lost 0-3 at home to Swansea on 2026-08-29.
- Derby drew 2-2 at home to Cardiff on 2026-08-22.
- Derby have conceded 5 goals in 2 home league matches.
Derby defender C. Forsyth is expected to miss this match after a knee scan, having started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
His absence narrows Derby's defensive selection and cover options. M. Johnston started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when Forsyth did not start, so Johnston is the likely replacement, but the depth behind that choice is thinner.
- John Eustace said Forsyth's knee scan did not look good.
- Eustace said Derby expect to lose him for a few months.
- C. Forsyth started 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
- M. Johnston started in the same position in 2 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups when C. Forsyth did not start.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 05:45 · Europe/BucharestDerby County: Eustace on Forsyth and Traviswww.dcfc.co.uk · 3 Sep 2026
West Brom are 7th with seven points, three points behind leaders Swansea.
On the road they won 2-1 at Norwich on 15 August but lost 3-1 at Middlesbrough on 29 August. They have scored three and conceded four in two away games, showing they can be vulnerable defensively. Derby's home struggles may give West Brom an opening, but their own away inconsistency makes the outcome less certain.
- West Brom won 2-1 away at Norwich on 2026-08-15.
- West Brom lost 1-3 away at Middlesbrough on 2026-08-29.
- West Brom have scored 3 and conceded 4 in 2 away league matches.
Derby midfielder L. Travis is out for three to four weeks, having started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
His absence removes a central-midfield option from Derby's match selection. The claim does not identify a direct replacement, so the midfield setup may need adjustment without a like-for-like starter.
- John Eustace said Travis would be missing for probably three or four weeks.
- Eustace described the prognosis as better than initially feared.
- L. Travis started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 05:45 · Europe/BucharestDerby County: Eustace on Forsyth and Traviswww.dcfc.co.uk · 3 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
West Brom's stronger away form and Derby's poor home record give the visitors an edge, supported by motivation and structural home/away signals.
- West Brom away record: 1W 0D 1L, 3 goals for, 4 against in 2 away matches
- Derby home record: 0W 1D 1L, 2 goals for, 5 against in 2 home matches
- West Brom last 5 form: 2W 1D 2L (including cup), Derby last 5 form: 1W 1D 3L
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonWest Bromwich AlbionEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Derby's inability to win at home and West Brom's competitive away form make the double chance a strong play.
- Derby home win rate: 0% in 2 home matches
- West Brom away loss rate: 50% in 2 away matches
- H2H last 5: Derby 1W, West Brom 2W, 2 draws
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or West Bromwich AlbionEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
West Brom's high draw rate at half time and Derby's mixed first half results suggest a level first half is plausible.
- Derby first half record: 43% leading, 36% trailing, 21% drawing
- West Brom first half record: 40% leading, 7% trailing, 53% drawing
- H2H last 5: 2 draws at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a West Brom win is a plausible sequence given West Brom's second half strength and Derby's poor home form.
- West Brom drew at half time in 53% of matches
- West Brom won 2 of last 5 matches overall
- Derby lost 3 of last 5 matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/West Bromwich AlbionEstimated chance20%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches have trended high-scoring, especially Derby's home games, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Derby home matches average 3.5 total goals (2 for, 5 against in 2 games)
- West Brom away matches average 3.5 total goals (3 for, 4 against in 2 games)
- Derby overall average 2.8 goals per game, West Brom 3.25 goals per game
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, and H2H history strongly supports both teams finding the net.
- Derby scored in 4 of last 5 matches, conceded in 4 of last 5
- West Brom scored in 4 of last 5 matches, conceded in 3 of last 5
- H2H last 5: both teams scored in 4 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, making over 0.5 first half goals likely.
- Derby first half goals: 0.9 per game, first half conceded: 0.8 per game
- West Brom first half goals: 0.9 per game, first half conceded: 0.4 per game
- Derby led at half time in 43% of matches, West Brom in 40%
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
West Brom's strong second half scoring and Derby's defensive vulnerabilities could produce multiple second half goals.
- Derby second half goals average 0.4 (total 1.3 - first half 0.9)
- West Brom second half goals average 1.2 (total 2.1 - first half 0.9)
- Combined second half average 1.6 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the combined average suggests over 9.5 corners is possible.
- Derby average corners: 4.9, opponent corners: 6.3
- West Brom average corners: 4.0, opponent corners: 5.3
- Combined average corners per match: 11.2
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 4-5 shots on target, making over 8.5 total shots on target a coin flip.
- Derby average shots on target: 4.3, opponent shots on target: 5.3
- West Brom average shots on target: 4.7, opponent shots on target: 3.3
- Combined average shots on target per match: 9.0
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derby's high yellow card count and West Brom's moderate discipline suggest over 3.5 cards is likely.
- Derby average yellow cards: 3.1, opponent yellow cards: 1.7
- West Brom average yellow cards: 1.7, opponent yellow cards: 1.7
- Combined average yellow cards per match: 4.8
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance55%