Draw or Orlando City
Market 58.8% · BetBugs 62%
Atlanta's home win rate is only 36% and Orlando have avoided defeat in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings, making the double chance slightly undervalued.
Major League SoccerFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Atlanta United vs Orlando City is likely to feature goals, but the market has already priced that in, leaving no value on Over 2.5 or BTTS.
The only slight edge is on 'Draw or Orlando City' at 1.70, with Orlando's superior attack and Atlanta's home struggles making the double chance a reasonable play.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 1
Market 58.8% · BetBugs 62%
Atlanta's home win rate is only 36% and Orlando have avoided defeat in 3 of the last 5 H2H meetings, making the double chance slightly undervalued.
Other edges · 3
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 62% · Market 69.4%
Both teams show high-scoring tendencies and leaky defenses, but the odds offer no value relative to our estimate.
BetBugs 58% · Market 67.6%
Both teams regularly find the net while also conceding, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 69.4% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; vig too heavy for a directional Over play.
Atlanta United has fulfilled 2 of 5 Over 2.5 goals predictions. The average estimated probability was 60%, but only 40% of matches went over. All five matches were away from home, where the team has struggled to produce high-scoring games.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Atlanta United | 22 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 25-38 | 21 |
| 9 | Orlando CityPromotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals) | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 37-54 | 25 |

