ChampionshipFull time

Predictions graded

Wrexham1Burnley1

HT 0–1Tue 8 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions7–750%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 15–19On targetOn target 5–4CornersCorners 4–4

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Sep 2026, 01:13 · Europe/Bucharest

Wrexham are favored based on form, but the market has priced in their edge, leaving no value on the main markets.

The best likely outcome is Wrexham or draw (72% probability), but at 1.30 odds it offers a negative edge. Avoid first-half goals and both teams to score markets due to heavy vig.

Context

Burnley are 23rd in the Championship with 2 points from 4 matches, two points from safety.
They have drawn twice at home and lost both away games, conceding 7 goals on the road. This match at Wrexham is another away test where they have struggled, but a win could lift them out of the relegation places.
- Burnley are 23rd with 2 points from 4 matches (0W, 2D, 2L).
- They lost both away matches, conceding 7 goals.
Wrexham are 11th with 5 points, but their home record is 0W, 1D, 1L.
They lost 1-2 to Birmingham and drew 1-1 with Watford at home. Against a struggling Burnley side, this is a chance to get a first home win, but their home form has been below their away form.
- Wrexham home record: 0W, 1D, 1L, 2 goals scored, 3 conceded.
- They lost 1-2 to Birmingham on 2026-08-28 and drew 1-1 with Watford on 2026-08-22.
Wrexham midfielder Ben Sheaf has not featured this season and trained through most of Friday's session before the Swansea match.
Phil Parkinson said Sheaf was close to returning, but his availability against Burnley is not confirmed. If he is involved, Wrexham's central-midfield options change; until then, the selection picture remains unresolved.
- Parkinson said Sheaf had trained for most of Friday's session before the Swansea match.
- Parkinson described Sheaf as close to returning after he had not featured that season at the time of the report.
To watchSources checked 7 Sep 2026, 01:11 · Europe/BucharestBBC Sport injury update via Yahooca.sports.yahoo.com · 5 Sep 2026
Burnley have conceded 10 goals in 4 league matches, with a goal difference of -5.
They conceded 4 goals at Norwich and 3 at West Brom in their last two away games. Wrexham have scored 6 goals in 4 matches, so Burnley's leaky defence could be tested again.
- Burnley have conceded 10 goals in 4 league matches.
- They lost 1-4 at Norwich on 2026-08-29 and 1-3 at West Brom on 2026-08-23.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Wrexham or Draw

1.30fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Burnley have not won away this season and Wrexham have lost only one of their last five, making the home double chance a strong play.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Wrexham

1.95fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 51.3%

0.0ppshort

Wrexham's superior recent form and Burnley's poor away defensive record give the home side the edge, though Wrexham's own home struggles temper confidence.

1 St Half Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Wrexham or Draw

1.25fair 1.33

BetBugs 75% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Burnley have not led at half-time in any match this season, making Wrexham or a draw the most likely first-half outcome.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.73fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.8%

0.0ppshort

Burnley's leaky defense (2.5 conceded/game) and Wrexham's decent scoring output point to a match with at least three goals.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Yes

1.67fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown they can score, and Burnley's defensive frailty makes it likely Wrexham will also find the net.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Burnley's tendency to concede early, especially away, makes a first-half goal likely.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.22fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Burnley's poor first-half scoring, especially away, makes it unlikely both teams score before the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Wrexham's superior recent form and Burnley's poor away defensive record give the home side the edge, though Wrexham's own home struggles temper confidence.
- Wrexham home record this season: 0W-1D-1L, but overall 1W-2D-1L with 6 goals scored and 4 conceded.
- Burnley away record: 0W-0D-2L, 2 goals scored, 7 conceded; overall 0W-2D-2L with 5 scored, 10 conceded.
- Wrexham last 5 Championship matches: W-D-D-L-W (8 points from 15), while Burnley last 5: D-L-L-D-L (2 points from 15).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostWrexhamEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's inability to win away and Wrexham's solid recent form make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Burnley have not won away this season (0W-0D-2L) and have lost their last two away matches by an aggregate 2-7.
- Wrexham have lost only one of their last five Championship matches (W2 D2 L1).
- Burnley's overall win rate is 0% after four matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonWrexham or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Wrexham's stronger first-half scoring and Burnley's poor first-half record give the home side a slight edge at the break.
- Wrexham lead at half-time in 33% of matches, while Burnley lead at half-time in 0%.
- Burnley trail at half-time in 67% of matches.
- Wrexham average 0.8 first-half goals vs Burnley's 0.3.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostWrexhamEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Wrexham's ability to finish strong and Burnley's second-half collapses suggest a home second-half win.
- Wrexham have won the second half in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Burnley have lost the second half in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Burnley's away second-half goal difference is -3 (scored 1, conceded 4).
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonWrexhamEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A Wrexham lead at half-time and full-time is plausible given Burnley's poor starts and overall form.
- Wrexham have led at half-time and won the match in 1 of their last 5 matches.
- Burnley have never led at half-time this season and have not won a match.
- Burnley's away record shows they trail at half-time in both away matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostWrexham/WrexhamEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
While uncommon, Wrexham could dominate both halves if Burnley's away struggles continue.
- Wrexham have won both halves in 1 of their last 5 matches.
- Burnley have lost both halves in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Burnley's away matches have seen them lose both halves in one game (vs Norwich).
BetBugs · Win Both HalveslostWrexhamEstimated chance20%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's inability to lead at the break makes Wrexham or a draw the most likely first-half outcome.
- Burnley have not led at half-time in any match this season (0% leading).
- Wrexham have led at half-time in 33% of matches and drawn in 54%.
- Burnley trail at half-time in 67% of matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonWrexham or DrawEstimated chance75%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's leaky defense, especially away, combined with Wrexham's decent scoring output points to a match with at least three goals.
- Burnley's away matches average 4.5 total goals (2 scored, 7 conceded in 2 games).
- Wrexham's home matches average 2.5 total goals (2 scored, 3 conceded in 2 games).
- Burnley have conceded 10 goals in 4 matches (2.5 per game), while Wrexham have scored 6 in 4 (1.5 per game).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score, and Burnley's defensive frailty makes it likely Wrexham will also find the net.
- Burnley have scored in 3 of 4 matches this season (5 goals total).
- Wrexham have scored in 3 of 4 matches this season (6 goals total).
- Burnley have conceded in all 4 matches, while Wrexham have conceded in 3 of 4.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's tendency to concede early, especially away, makes a first-half goal likely.
- Wrexham average 0.8 first-half goals per match, with 33% of matches leading at half-time.
- Burnley average 0.3 first-half goals scored but concede 1.1 first-half goals per match.
- In Burnley's away matches, they have conceded first-half goals in both games (1 and 3).
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be more open after the break, and Burnley's defensive issues could lead to multiple second-half goals.
- Wrexham's matches average 1.3 second-half goals (total goals minus first-half goals).
- Burnley's matches average 1.7 second-half goals.
- Burnley have conceded 7 away goals, many in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Burnley's poor first-half scoring, especially away, makes it unlikely both teams score before the break.
- Wrexham average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Burnley average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded.
- In Burnley's away matches, they have not scored in the first half (0 goals).
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and the total could exceed 8.5 if the game is open.
- Wrexham average 5 corners per match, Burnley average 3.8.
- Combined average corners in Wrexham matches: 9.0 (5 for, 4 against).
- Combined average corners in Burnley matches: 7.6 (3.8 for, 3.8 against).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams average around 4 shots on target each, making over 7.5 a coin-flip proposition.
- Wrexham average 3.8 shots on target per match, Burnley average 3.9.
- Combined average shots on target in Wrexham matches: 7.7.
- Combined average shots on target in Burnley matches: 7.8.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 7.5Estimated chance50%