Second LeagueFull time

Predictions graded

Spartak Pleven3Hebar Pazardzhik2

HT 1–1Mon 7 Sept 2026, 16:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 08:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Hebar Pazardzhik are slight favorites against a struggling Spartak Pleven side playing at a neutral venue.

The over 2.5 goals market offers a small edge (+1.8 points), while the first-half over 0.5 goals is heavily overpriced and should be avoided.

Context

Spartak Pleven sit 15th in the Second League with 7 points from 7 matches.
Their recent form is poor: they lost 5-1 to CSKA Sofia II on 3 September, 2-0 to Vihren on 30 August, and 3-0 to Beroe on 25 August. They have conceded 14 goals in 7 league games, an average of 2 per match. At home, they have lost two of three matches, scoring only 2 goals. This defensive weakness could be exploited by Hebar, who have scored 12 goals this season.
- Lost 5-1 to CSKA Sofia II on 3 September 2026.
- Lost 2-0 to Vihren on 30 August 2026.
- Lost 3-0 to Beroe on 25 August 2026.
- Conceded 14 goals in 7 league matches.
Hebar Pazardzhik are 13th in the Second League with 8 points from 7 matches.
Their away record is mixed: they won 3-2 at Pirin Blagoevgrad on 18 August, drew 1-1 at Ludogorets II on 29 August, but lost 4-3 at CSKA Sofia II on 11 August and 2-1 at Beroe on 24 July. They have scored 8 goals in 4 away games, an average of 2 per match, but have also conceded 9. This suggests they can score against a struggling Spartak Pleven defense, but their own defense may be vulnerable.
- Won 3-2 at Pirin Blagoevgrad on 18 August 2026.
- Drew 1-1 at Ludogorets II on 29 August 2026.
- Lost 4-3 at CSKA Sofia II on 11 August 2026.
- Scored 8 goals in 4 away league matches.
Spartak Pleven's nominal home fixture is being played at Lovech City Stadium, with the club arranging supporter transport from Pleven.
The change of venue removes Spartak's usual home setting and alters the match-day environment for both sides. The supporter bus indicates the club expects a reduced local presence, though the competitive effect on the pitch remains uncertain.
- Local reporting lists Spartak versus Hebar in Lovech on 7 September at 19:00.
- Spartak organised a supporter bus from Pleven to Lovech for the match.
ReportedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 08:26 · Europe/BucharestPlevenUtreplevenutre.bg · 5 Sep 2026
The teams have met four times in the Second League since 2019.
Hebar won 3-0 at home on 14 March 2026, 2-1 away on 6 September 2025, and 3-1 away on 7 December 2019. Spartak Pleven's only win was 3-0 at home on 20 July 2019. This recent head-to-head record suggests Hebar have a psychological edge, but the sample is small and the teams have changed since those matches.
- Hebar won 3-0 at home on 14 March 2026.
- Hebar won 2-1 away on 6 September 2025.
- Hebar won 3-1 away on 7 December 2019.
- Spartak Pleven won 3-0 at home on 20 July 2019.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Hebar Pazardzhik

2.38fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 42%

0.0ppshort

Hebar's superior H2H record (3 wins in last 5) and Spartak's poor home scoring (2 goals in 3 home games) support the away side, but the edge is marginal.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Hebar Pazardzhik

1.41fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 71%

0.0ppshort

Spartak's poor form (LLLD) and home struggles make a home win unlikely, but the odds are slightly below our estimate, offering no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hebar's superior away form and strong H2H record give them the edge, while Spartak's poor home scoring and recent losing streak reduce their chances.
- Hebar away record: 1W-1D-2L, 8 goals for, 9 against in 4 away matches
- Spartak home record: 1W-0D-2L, 2 goals for, 4 against in 3 home matches
- H2H last 5: Hebar won 3, Spartak won 1, 1 draw; Hebar won last meeting 3-0 away
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHebar PazardzhikEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak's poor form and home struggles make a home win unlikely, so backing Hebar or draw covers the most probable outcomes.
- Spartak home win rate: 33% (1/3)
- Hebar away loss rate: 50% (2/4)
- Spartak last 5 form: LLLLD
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Hebar PazardzhikEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Neither team has a strong first-half dominance, and draws are common at the break.
- Spartak first half results: 7 leading, 60 trailing (percentages from averages)
- Hebar first half results: 7 leading, 43 trailing
- Both teams often draw at half-time in recent matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hebar's better second-half scoring and Spartak's defensive frailty suggest Hebar could edge the second period.
- Hebar scored 0.7 goals per second half on average
- Spartak conceded 1.1 goals per second half on average
- Hebar's away matches often see them score late
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostHebar PazardzhikEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Hebar win is a plausible scenario given Spartak's second-half collapses.
- Spartak often trail at half-time (60% trailing)
- Hebar often draw at half-time (43% trailing, 7% leading)
- Hebar have won 2 of last 5 H2H
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Hebar PazardzhikEstimated chance20%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown the consistency to win both halves, making 'No' a strong prediction.
- Spartak have not won both halves in any recent match
- Hebar have not won both halves in any recent match
- Both teams have low first-half scoring rates
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak often trail at half-time, while Hebar are rarely behind, making Hebar or draw a safe first-half double chance.
- Spartak first half trailing percentage: 60%
- Hebar first half leading percentage: 7%
- Hebar first half draw percentage: 50%
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or Hebar PazardzhikEstimated chance70%

Goals4 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hebar's away games are high-scoring and Spartak concede heavily at home, making over 2.5 goals likely.
- Hebar away matches average 4.25 total goals (17 goals in 4 games)
- Spartak home matches average 2.0 total goals (6 goals in 3 games)
- H2H last 5: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown they can score while also conceding, especially in Hebar's away games, supporting both teams to score.
- Hebar scored in 3 of 4 away matches
- Spartak scored in 2 of 3 home matches
- Hebar conceded in 3 of 4 away matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede in the first half, making at least one first-half goal probable.
- Spartak first half goals for average: 0.2, against: 1.0
- Hebar first half goals for average: 0.4, against: 0.7
- Combined first half goal average: 1.15 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams score more in the second half, but the margin is thin, so this is a low-confidence lean.
- Spartak second half goals average: 0.7 (total 0.9 - 0.2 first half)
- Hebar second half goals average: 0.7 (total 1.1 - 0.4 first half)
- Combined second half goal average: 1.4
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams struggle to score in the first half, so both teams scoring before the break is unlikely.
- Spartak first half goals for average: 0.2
- Hebar first half goals for average: 0.4
- Combined first half scoring is low
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostNoEstimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 40% vs our estimate 33% leaves no value; the home side's poor form and neutral venue reduce their chances.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 3W

W0-3Hebar 1918vSpartak PlevenMar 14, 2026SEC

L1-2Spartak PlevenvHebar 1918Sep 6, 2025SEC

L1-3Spartak PlevenvHebar 1918Dec 7, 2019SEC

L3-0Hebar 1918vSpartak PlevenJul 20, 2019SEC

3.3 goals/game avg

League Table

Second League 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Spartak Pleven	7	2	1	4	7-14	7	LLLLD
13	Hebar Pazardzhik	7	2	2	3	12-13	8	DDWWL

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Spartak Pleven

L1-5CSKA Sofia IISep 3SEC

L0-2VihrenAug 30SEC

L0-3BeroeAug 25SEC

L0-1Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaAug 16SEC

D2-2Rilski SportistAug 9SEC

W2-1MarekAug 1SEC

W2-0Yantra 2019Jul 25SEC

L1-3MontanaJul 18FRI

L0-2Hapoel Petah TikvaJul 14FRI

L1-2Lokomotiv G. OryahovitsaJul 11FRI

W2-0Yantra 2019Jul 7FRI

L0-1Cherno More VarnaJul 3FRI

L1-2Botev VratsaJul 1FRI

L0-4Botev PlovdivJun 23FRI

L1-3Ludogorets IIMay 23SEC

Hebar Pazardzhik

D1-1FratriaSep 1SEC

D1-1Ludogorets IIAug 29SEC

W1-0Chernomorets 1919 BurgasAug 23SEC

W3-2Pirin BlagoevgradAug 18SEC

L3-4CSKA Sofia IIAug 11SEC

L2-3VihrenAug 2SEC

L1-2BeroeJul 24SEC

L1-2Septemvri SofiaJul 7FRI

L0-1BallkaniJun 24FRI

L0-1Sportist SvogeMay 23SEC

D1-1MarekMay 15SEC

W1-0Etar Veliko TarnovoMay 10SEC

L1-2Ludogorets IIMay 4SEC

L1-3Chernomorets 1919 BurgasApr 27SEC

L0-2CSKA Sofia IIApr 22SEC

Squad & Injuries

Spartak Pleven

23 available

Attackers7

Midfielders10

Defenders4

Goalkeeper2

Hebar Pazardzhik

23 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders5

Goalkeeper2

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Hebar Pazardzhik

Draw or Hebar Pazardzhik

No

Draw or Hebar Pazardzhik

Yes

Over 0.5

Result2 of 7 landed

Goals4 of 5 landed

Markets to Avoid

Spartak Pleven

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Spartak Pleven

Hebar Pazardzhik

Squad & Injuries

Spartak Pleven

Hebar Pazardzhik