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Predictions graded

Slaven Koprivnica2Lokomotiva Zagreb1

HT 0–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 19:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 44%–56%ShotsShots 17–12On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 5–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 01:26 · Europe/Bucharest

Lokomotiva Zagreb hold a slight edge over a struggling Slaven side under new coach Čabraja, with small value on the away win (2.63) and double chance (1.57).

Avoid the overpriced goals markets, especially Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes, as the odds exceed model probabilities.

Context

Silvijo Čabraja was appointed Slaven Belupo head coach on 1 September 2026 and completed his first training session that evening. He previously led Lokomotiva until March 2025.
Čabraja has only days to set Slaven's selection and match plan before his debut against his former club. The short preparation window could alter defensive organisation and tactical instructions, but the specific changes are not yet known. His familiarity with Lokomotiva's squad may inform his approach, yet that does not guarantee a particular outcome.
- Slaven Belupo announced Čabraja's two-year appointment on 1 September 2026 and said he completed his first training session that evening.
- The club stated that the home match against Lokomotiva will be Čabraja's first in charge; he previously led Lokomotiva until March 2025.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 01:25 · Europe/BucharestSlaven Belupo appoints Silvijo Čabrajank-slaven-belupo.hr · 1 Sep 2026
Slaven Koprivnica are 9th in the HNL with 3 points from 5 matches.
Their away record is 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with 0 goals scored and 8 conceded. This match is at home, where they have 1 win and 1 loss from 2 games, so their away struggles may not directly apply. However, it shows a team that has been poor overall, especially in attack.
- Slaven Koprivnica away record: 0W 0D 3L, 0 goals for, 8 against.
- Lost 0-3 at NK Osijek on 2026-08-30, 0-3 at Istra 1961 on 2026-08-15, and 0-2 at Dinamo Zagreb on 2026-07-31.
After the 31 August loss at Hajduk, Lokomotiva coach Nikica Jelavić said the absence of three or four core players makes the team different.
Lokomotiva have not identified the unavailable players or confirmed their status for this fixture. If those absences persist, the squad's limited depth could restrict selection and replacement options, but the exact impact remains unresolved.
- After the 31 August loss at Hajduk, Nikica Jelavić said the absence of three or four core players makes Lokomotiva a different team.
- Jelavić said the squad is not deep and that the team looks different when all players are healthy and available.
To watchSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 01:25 · Europe/BucharestJelavić after Hajduk v Lokomotivanklokomotiva.hr · 31 Aug 2026
Lokomotiva Zagreb are 6th with 6 points, but their away record is 1 win and 3 losses.
They lost 0-2 at Hajduk Split on 2026-08-31, 1-4 at Rudes on 2026-08-21, and 0-1 at Osijek on 2026-08-15. This match is away for them, and their recent away form is poor, though they did win 3-2 at Istra 1961 on 2026-08-01.
- Lokomotiva Zagreb away record: 1W 0D 3L, 4 goals for, 9 against.
- Lost 0-2 at Hajduk Split on 2026-08-31, 1-4 at Rudes on 2026-08-21, and 0-1 at Osijek on 2026-08-15.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' recent HNL matches have averaged over 3.0 total goals, but the odds imply a higher probability than our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Slaven's poor recent form and home struggles contrast with Lokomotiva's better away results, giving the visitors a slight edge.
- Slaven Koprivnica have lost 4 of their last 5 HNL matches, conceding 12 goals in 5 games.
- Lokomotiva Zagreb have won 2 of their last 5 HNL matches, including a 3-1 away win at Istra 1961.
- Slaven Koprivnica have lost all 3 away HNL matches this season, scoring 0 goals.
- Lokomotiva Zagreb won the most recent HNL meeting between these sides 2-1 in April 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostLokomotiva ZagrebEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Slaven's poor form makes them unlikely to win, so backing Lokomotiva or a draw covers the most probable outcomes.
- Slaven Koprivnica have won only 1 of their last 5 HNL matches.
- Lokomotiva Zagreb have avoided defeat in 2 of their last 5 HNL matches.
- Slaven Koprivnica have lost 4 of their last 5 HNL matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or Lokomotiva ZagrebEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first-half scoring rates suggest a close contest, with a draw at the break being a reasonable outcome.
- Slaven Koprivnica have been level at half-time in 2 of their last 5 HNL matches.
- Lokomotiva Zagreb have been level at half-time in 2 of their last 5 HNL matches.
- Slaven Koprivnica average 0.6 first-half goals and concede 1.0, while Lokomotiva average 0.9 and concede 0.4.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Lokomotiva win is a plausible sequence given Slaven's tendency to fade.
- Slaven Koprivnica have been level at half-time in 2 of their last 5 HNL matches.
- Lokomotiva Zagreb have won 2 of their last 5 HNL matches.
- Slaven Koprivnica have lost 4 of their last 5 HNL matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/Lokomotiva ZagrebEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in high-scoring matches recently, and Slaven's defensive weakness increases the likelihood of multiple goals.
- Slaven Koprivnica's last 5 HNL matches averaged 3.4 total goals.
- Lokomotiva Zagreb's last 5 HNL matches averaged 3.0 total goals.
- Slaven Koprivnica have conceded 2.2 goals per game on average this season.
- Lokomotiva Zagreb have scored 1.7 goals per game on average this season.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown the ability to score while also conceding regularly, making both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- Slaven Koprivnica have scored in 3 of their last 5 HNL matches.
- Lokomotiva Zagreb have scored in 4 of their last 5 HNL matches.
- Slaven Koprivnica have conceded in 4 of their last 5 HNL matches.
- Lokomotiva Zagreb have conceded in 4 of their last 5 HNL matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be involved in first-half goals, with Slaven's defensive issues likely to lead to an early goal.
- Slaven Koprivnica have scored or conceded in the first half in 4 of their last 5 HNL matches.
- Lokomotiva Zagreb have scored or conceded in the first half in 4 of their last 5 HNL matches.
- Slaven Koprivnica average 0.6 first-half goals and concede 1.0 first-half goals per game.
- Lokomotiva Zagreb average 0.9 first-half goals and concede 0.4 first-half goals per game.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half goals are common in matches involving these teams, though the probability is not strongly supported.
- Slaven Koprivnica's last 5 HNL matches averaged 1.8 second-half goals.
- Lokomotiva Zagreb's last 5 HNL matches averaged 1.6 second-half goals.
- Slaven Koprivnica have conceded 2.2 goals per game on average, many in the second half.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The corner averages suggest a total around 9, making over 8.5 a borderline call.
- Slaven Koprivnica average 3.1 corners per game and concede 5.0 corners per game.
- Lokomotiva Zagreb average 4.8 corners per game and concede 5.0 corners per game.
- Combined average corners in matches involving these teams is around 8.9.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Lokomotiva's high card count pushes the expected total above 3.5, though the margin is small.
- Slaven Koprivnica average 1.4 yellow cards per game.
- Lokomotiva Zagreb average 2.7 yellow cards per game.
- Combined average yellow cards in matches involving these teams is around 4.1.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L2-1NK Lokomotiva ZagrebvNK Slaven BelupoApr 21, 2026HNL

D1-1NK Slaven BelupovNK Lokomotiva ZagrebMar 10, 2026CUP

L2-0NK Slaven BelupovNK Lokomotiva ZagrebFeb 13, 2026HNL

W2-4NK Slaven BelupovNK Lokomotiva ZagrebJan 16, 2026FRI

D1-1NK Lokomotiva ZagrebvNK Slaven BelupoNov 8, 2025HNL

3 goals/game avg

League Table

HNL 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
9	Slaven Koprivnica	5	1	0	4	3-12	3	LWLLL
6	Lokomotiva Zagreb	5	2	0	3	7-10	6	LLLWW

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form