Serie AFull time

Predictions graded

Parma1Monza1

HT 0–1Sun 6 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges5–183%

PossPossession 46%–54%ShotsShots 7–16On targetOn target 3–5CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 06:30 · Europe/Bucharest

The top betting edge is Over 2.5 goals at 2.20, with a model probability of 58% versus an implied 45.5%.

Avoid first-half goals, clean sheet, and double chance markets as they are overpriced. Both teams are winless and missing key midfielders, but Monza's leaky defense is the main driver for goals.

Context

Parma are 17th and Monza are 18th in Serie A after two matches.
Parma lost 0-2 at Juventus on 29 August and 0-1 at home to Cagliari on 22 August. Monza lost 2-3 at home to Udinese on 29 August and 1-4 at Inter on 22 August. Both teams have conceded early goals and need a result to avoid being cut adrift near the bottom.
- Parma lost 0-2 at Juventus on 29 August and 0-1 at home to Cagliari on 22 August.
- Monza lost 2-3 at home to Udinese on 29 August and 1-4 at Inter on 22 August.
- Both teams have 0 points and are in the relegation zone.
Parma have played two Serie A matches without scoring.
They had 13 shots at home against Cagliari but only 2 on target, and 4 shots away at Juventus with 3 on target. Their average of 0.7 goals per game includes a Coppa Italia win, but in the league they have yet to find the net.
- Parma lost 0-2 at Juventus on 29 August and 0-1 at home to Cagliari on 22 August.
- Parma had 13 shots against Cagliari but only 2 on target.
- Parma average 0.7 goals per game overall, but 0 in Serie A.
Parma midfielder H. Nicolussi is unavailable after surgery for pubalgia on 28 August and was not in the squad for Juventus.
His absence removes a central-midfield option for Parma, limiting selection and rotation choices. The club has not named a direct replacement in the available evidence, so the effect on the starting lineup remains uncertain.
- Parma said H. Nicolussi underwent surgery in London on 28 August to treat pubalgia.
- The club said he would begin the rehabilitation process needed to return to competitive activity.
- Parma's 28 August squad for Juventus did not include H. Nicolussi.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 06:29 · Europe/BucharestParma Calcio medical updatewww.parmacalcio1913.com · 28 Aug 2026Parma squad for Juventuswww.parmacalcio1913.com · 28 Aug 2026
Monza have the worst goals-against record among teams with two defeats.
They conceded 4 at Inter and 3 at home to Udinese. Their average of 1.7 goals conceded per game is high, and they have not kept a clean sheet in Serie A this season.
- Monza lost 1-4 at Inter on 22 August and 2-3 at home to Udinese on 29 August.
- Monza have conceded 7 goals in 2 Serie A matches.
- Monza average 1.7 goals conceded per game.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.40fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to concede early, but the odds offer no margin over our estimate.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Monza to score

1.30fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 76.9%

0.0ppshort

Parma's defensive vulnerabilities and Monza's scoring ability make a Parma clean sheet unlikely, but the odds are too short.

Team to ScorewonUncertainty band: Lean

Parma to score

1.44fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 69.4%

0.0ppshort

Monza's poor defensive form makes a clean sheet unlikely, but the odds offer no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Lean

Parma or Draw

1.36fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Parma's historical edge and home venue make them less likely to lose, supporting a double chance.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H draws and both teams' poor form suggest a stalemate is plausible, but low confidence due to small sample size.
- H2H last 4 meetings: 3 draws and 1 Parma win.
- Both teams are winless in Serie A this season (Parma 0W-0D-2L, Monza 0W-0D-2L).
- Parma's home record this season: 0W-0D-1L, Monza's away record: 0W-0D-1L.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Parma's historical edge and home venue make them less likely to lose, supporting a double chance.
- Parma are unbeaten in last 4 H2H meetings (1W, 3D).
- Parma's home advantage and Monza's away struggles (1-4 loss at Inter) support this.
- Monza have lost both Serie A matches this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonParma or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Historical H2H draws and low first-half scoring make Draw/Draw a plausible but low-probability outcome.
- H2H last 4 meetings: 3 draws, with 2 of those draws having a draw at halftime.
- Both teams have low first-half scoring rates (Parma 0.3, Monza 0.7 first-half goals).
- Both teams are winless this season, suggesting a cautious start.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals4 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Monza's high-scoring recent games and both teams' defensive struggles support Over 2.5, though Parma's low scoring output tempers confidence.
- Monza's last 5 Serie A matches averaged 3.6 total goals (18 goals in 5).
- Parma's last 5 Serie A matches averaged 2.2 total goals, but 3 of those 5 had 2 or fewer goals.
- H2H last 4 meetings: 2 draws with 2 goals each, one 3-goal game, one 0-0.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making BTTS likely.
- Monza scored in 4 of their last 5 Serie A matches (8 goals total).
- Parma conceded in 4 of their last 5 Serie A matches (7 goals conceded).
- Monza conceded in all 5 of their last 5 Serie A matches (14 goals conceded).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede early, making a first-half goal likely.
- Monza's last 5 Serie A matches: first-half goals in 4 of 5 (total 5 first-half goals).
- Parma's last 5 Serie A matches: first-half goals in 3 of 5 (total 3 first-half goals).
- Combined, 7 of 10 recent first halves had at least one goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Monza's second-half scoring and conceding trends support Over 1.5, but Parma's low output makes this uncertain.
- Monza's last 5 Serie A matches: second-half goals in all 5 (total 10 second-half goals).
- Parma's last 5 Serie A matches: second-half goals in 3 of 5 (total 5 second-half goals).
- Combined second-half average is 1.5 goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Parma's defensive vulnerabilities and Monza's scoring ability make a Parma clean sheet unlikely.
- Parma have conceded in 4 of their last 5 Serie A matches.
- Monza have scored in 4 of their last 5 Serie A matches.
- Parma's home defensive record this season: 1 goal conceded in 1 match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonMonza to scoreEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Monza's poor defensive form makes a clean sheet unlikely.
- Monza have conceded in all 5 of their last 5 Serie A matches.
- Parma have scored in 2 of their last 5 Serie A matches, but Monza's defense is porous.
- Monza's away defensive record this season: 4 goals conceded in 1 match.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonParma to scoreEstimated chance60%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Corner counts are moderate for both teams, making Over 8.5 a coin flip.
- Parma's last 5 Serie A matches averaged 5.4 total corners (27 corners).
- Monza's last 5 Serie A matches averaged 6.0 total corners (30 corners).
- Combined average is 5.7 corners per match, below the 8.5 line.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams' shots on target numbers are below the line, but Monza's attacking volume could push it over.
- Parma's last 5 Serie A matches averaged 3.4 shots on target (17 total).
- Monza's last 5 Serie A matches averaged 4.4 shots on target (22 total).
- Combined average is 7.8 shots on target per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' disciplinary records suggest a moderately high card count, supporting Over 3.5.
- Parma's last 5 Serie A matches averaged 2.0 yellow cards (10 total).
- Monza's last 5 Serie A matches averaged 2.2 yellow cards (11 total).
- Combined average is 4.2 cards per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 71.4% leaves no cushion vs our 60% estimate; vig too heavy for a directional Over play.

Head-to-Head

1W · 3D · 0W

D1-1MonzavParmaMar 15, 2025SA

W2-1ParmavMonzaDec 28, 2024SA

D1-1MonzavParmaMar 2, 2022SER

D0-0ParmavMonzaOct 17, 2021SER

Parma unbeaten in 4 meetings1.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Serie A 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
17	Parma	2	0	0	2	0-3	0	LL
18	Monza Relegation	2	0	0	2	3-7	0	LL

Monza in relegation zone

Recent Form

Parma

L0-2JuventusAug 29SA

L0-1CagliariAug 22SA

W2-0CataniaAug 14CI

L0-2SampdoriaAug 9FRI

D1-1Iraklis 1908Aug 2FRI

D1-1ArezzoJul 30FRI

D1-1LazioApr 4SA

L0-2CremoneseMar 21SA

Monza

L2-3UdineseAug 29SA

L1-4InterAug 22SA

W3-0AvellinoAug 14CI

D3-3PadovaAug 7FRI

L1-3Aris ThessalonikisJul 30FRI

W2-0GalatasarayJul 24FRI

W4-3PRO VercelliJul 18FRI

L0-2CatanzaroMay 29SER

W2-0CatanzaroMay 24SER

W2-1Juve StabiaMay 19SER

D2-2Juve StabiaMay 16SER

D2-2EmpoliMay 8SER

L2-3MantovaMay 1SER

W1-0ModenaApr 24SER

W3-0SampdoriaApr 17SER

Squad & Injuries

Parma

33 available

Attackers11

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper5

Monza

29 available

Attackers10

Midfielders10

Defenders6

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Monza to score

Parma to score

Parma or Draw

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals4 of 6 landed

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Monza to score

Parma to score

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Parma

Monza

Squad & Injuries

Parma

Monza