ÚrvalsdeildFull time

Predictions graded

IA Akranes3Reykjavik1

HT 1–0Sun 6 Sept 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges3–260%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 3 Sep 2026, 00:52 · Europe/Bucharest

The best betting edge is Over 3.5 goals at 1.50, with a model probability of 75% versus an implied 66.7%.

Avoid BTTS Yes at 1.22 and Reykjavik to win at 1.78, as both are priced at or below fair value. IA's upper-half motivation and Reykjavik's returning players add context, but the clearest signal is the high-scoring trend in this fixture.

Context

KR Reykjavik are second in the Úrvalsdeild with 44 points from 21 matches.
They have scored 73 goals and conceded 46 this season. Their recent matches include a 5-3 win at KA Akureyri on 23 August and a 3-3 draw with Breidablik on 16 August. This pattern suggests an open game, but their away record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses shows they are less dominant on the road.
- KR Reykjavik average 3.2 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per match.
- They won 5-3 at KA Akureyri on 23 August and drew 3-3 with Breidablik on 16 August.
- Their away record is 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses.
ÍA start the final regular-season round level on 27 points with seventh-placed Stjarnan, who play ÍBV at the same time. The league split follows this round.
ÍA have a concrete incentive to secure an upper-section place, and the simultaneous Stjarnan result can influence how they manage the match state. If Stjarnan lead, ÍA may need to push late for a result; if Stjarnan trail, a draw could be enough. The claim does not establish how ÍA will respond tactically, only that the parallel fixture makes late-game urgency possible.
- Fótbolti.net’s Round 22 schedule lists ÍA–KR and Stjarnan–ÍBV at 14:00 on 6 September.
- The same report lists ÍA sixth on 27 points and Stjarnan seventh on 27 points.
- DV reported after KR–Víkingur that one round remained before the league split.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 00:50 · Europe/BucharestFótbolti.net Round 22 disciplinary and fixture reportwww.fotbolti.net · 2 Sep 2026DV report on KR–Víkingurwww.dv.is · 1 Sep 2026
IA Akranes are sixth in the Úrvalsdeild with 27 points.
Their home record is 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, with 16 goals scored and 14 conceded. They drew 1-1 with FH hafnarfjordur at home on 23 August and lost 2-1 to Breidablik at home on 4 July. This home form is a concern against a strong KR Reykjavik side.
- IA Akranes have 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses at home.
- They drew 1-1 with FH hafnarfjordur at home on 23 August.
- They lost 2-1 to Breidablik at home on 4 July.
Reykjavik midfielder A. Traustason returned from suspension directly into the starting lineup on 1 September and scored a 96th-minute equaliser against Víkingur.
Traustason's return removes a suspension-driven selection constraint from KR's attacking midfield and restores a recent late-box finishing option. The stoppage-time goal shows he can arrive in scoring positions late, but one goal does not establish a repeatable pattern for this match.
- Fótbolti.net reported that A. Traustason returned from suspension directly into KR’s starting lineup against Víkingur.
- The match report records his 96th-minute equaliser in KR’s 1-1 draw.
ConfirmedSources checked 3 Sep 2026, 00:50 · Europe/BucharestFótbolti.net KR–Víkingur lineup reportfotbolti.net · 1 Sep 2026Fótbolti.net KR–Víkingur match reportwww.fotbolti.net · 1 Sep 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Yes

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Both teams regularly find the net and their direct meetings usually see goals at both ends, but the odds are heavily skewed.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 1.5

1.53fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 65.4%

0.0ppshort

Reykjavik's high first-half scoring rate and both teams' tendency to be involved in early goals support over 1.5 first-half goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik's superior league position, stronger overall record, and recent H2H success give them the edge, though IA's home resilience and motivation keep the probability moderate.
- Reykjavik are 2nd with 44 points, while IA Akranes are 6th with 27 points.
- Reykjavik have won 13 of 21 league matches; IA Akranes have won 7 of 21.
- Reykjavik won the most recent H2H 5-3 at home.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostReykjavikEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik's strong away form and IA's modest home win rate make the double chance a high-probability safety play.
- Reykjavik have lost only 3 of 21 league matches this season.
- IA Akranes have won only 3 of 10 home matches.
- Reykjavik are unbeaten in their last 5 away matches (3W, 2D).
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or ReykjavikEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Reykjavik win is plausible given their second-half strength, but the specific sequence is inherently less predictable.
- Reykjavik have led at half-time in 47% of matches and won 62% overall.
- IA Akranes have drawn at half-time in 33% of matches.
- Reykjavik's away matches often see them take control after a level first half.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/ReykjavikEstimated chance25%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik's superior first-half scoring output gives them a slight edge, but IA's low trailing rate makes this a low-confidence call.
- Reykjavik led at half-time in 47% of matches; IA Akranes in 47%.
- Reykjavik average 1.7 first-half goals scored, IA Akranes 0.8.
- IA Akranes trailed at half-time in only 20% of matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostReykjavikEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik's second-half scoring edge and IA's defensive drop-off after the break support a Reykjavik second-half win, though variance is high.
- Reykjavik average 1.5 second-half goals scored, IA Akranes 1.1.
- Reykjavik have a positive second-half goal difference; IA Akranes are negative.
- Reykjavik's away record shows strong second-half performances.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostReykjavikEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The likelihood of either team winning both halves is low given IA's resilience and Reykjavik's inconsistent half-by-half dominance.
- IA Akranes have not lost both halves in any of their last 15 matches.
- Reykjavik have won both halves in only 2 of their last 15 matches.
- IA Akranes are competitive at home, with 3 wins and 4 draws in 10 home games.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik's strong first-half record and IA's tendency to draw at the break make the double chance a solid option.
- Reykjavik led at half-time in 47% of matches; IA Akranes in 47%.
- IA Akranes drew at half-time in 33% of matches.
- Reykjavik have not trailed at half-time in 73% of matches.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalflostDraw or ReykjavikEstimated chance70%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high-scoring recent profiles and their head-to-head history consistently produces goals, driven by attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities.
- IA Akranes average 3.8 total goals per match in their last 15 (1.9 for, 1.9 against).
- Reykjavik average 5.5 total goals per match in their last 15 (3.2 for, 2.3 against).
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 4, 5, 1, 5, and 6 goals, averaging 4.2 goals per game.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides regularly find the net and their direct meetings usually see goals at both ends, making BTTS a strong statistical expectation.
- IA Akranes scored in 13 of their last 15 matches.
- Reykjavik scored in 14 of their last 15 matches.
- Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 H2H meetings.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik's high first-half scoring rate and both teams' tendency to be involved in early goals support over 1.5 first-half goals.
- IA Akranes average 1.3 first-half goals per match (0.8 for, 0.5 against).
- Reykjavik average 3.0 first-half goals per match (1.7 for, 1.3 against).
- Reykjavik led at half-time in 47% of their matches; IA Akranes in 47%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The second half tends to be productive for both teams, with combined averages well above the 1.5 line.
- IA Akranes average 2.5 second-half goals per match (1.1 for, 1.4 against).
- Reykjavik average 2.5 second-half goals per match (1.5 for, 1.0 against).
- Both teams have scored and conceded consistently in the second half across recent matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Reykjavik's high first-half involvement makes BTTS in the first half possible, but IA's lower first-half scoring rate tempers the probability.
- IA Akranes average 0.8 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Reykjavik average 1.7 first-half goals scored and 1.3 conceded.
- Both teams scored in the first half in 3 of Reykjavik's last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalflostYesEstimated chance45%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 82% leaves no cushion vs our 70% estimate; vig too heavy for a directional Yes play.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L5-3KR ReykjavikvIA AkranesJun 22, 2026ÚRV

W3-2IA AkranesvKR ReykjavikSep 27, 2025ÚRV

W1-0IA AkranesvKR ReykjavikJul 14, 2025ÚRV

L5-0KR ReykjavikvIA AkranesApr 27, 2025ÚRV

L4-2KR ReykjavikvIA AkranesSep 1, 2024ÚRV

5 goals/game avg

League Table

Úrvalsdeild 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	IA Akranes Play-offs	21	7	6	8	36-40	27	DDWWD
2	Reykjavik Play-offs	21	13	5	3	73-46	44	DWDWD

17pt gap between teams

Recent Form

IA Akranes

D2-2Valur ReykjavikAug 30ÚRV

D1-1FH hafnarfjordurAug 23ÚRV

W3-1IBV VestmannaeyjarAug 16ÚRV

W2-0Thor AkureyriAug 9ÚRV

D2-2Vikingur ReykjavikAug 2ÚRV

W5-1StjarnanJul 26ÚRV

L2-5KeflavikJul 20ÚRV

L2-3KA AkureyriJul 12ÚRV

L1-2BreidablikJul 4ÚRV

L0-2Fram ReykjavikJun 29ÚRV

L3-5KR ReykjavikJun 22ÚRV

W1-0Valur ReykjavikJun 16ÚRV

L1-2Vikingur ReykjavikJun 12CUP

W1-0FH hafnarfjordurMay 29ÚRV

D2-2IBV VestmannaeyjarMay 21ÚRV

Reykjavik

D1-1Vikingur ReykjavikSep 1ÚRV

W5-3KA AkureyriAug 23ÚRV

D3-3BreidablikAug 16ÚRV

W5-2Fram ReykjavikAug 10ÚRV

D1-1FH hafnarfjordurAug 5ÚRV

W5-0StjarnanJul 19ÚRV

W5-2IBV VestmannaeyjarJul 12ÚRV

D3-3Thor AkureyriJul 2ÚRV

L2-3KeflavikJun 28ÚRV

W5-3IA AkranesJun 22ÚRV

L0-2Vikingur ReykjavikJun 16ÚRV

W5-3KA AkureyriMay 31ÚRV

W3-1Valur ReykjavikMay 26ÚRV

L3-6BreidablikMay 22ÚRV

D2-2Fram ReykjavikMay 17ÚRV

Squad & Injuries

IA Akranes

29 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Reykjavik

28 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 3.5

Yes

Over 1.5

Over 1.5

Draw or Reykjavik

Result1 of 7 landed

Goals3 of 5 landed

Markets to Avoid

Yes

Reykjavik

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

IA Akranes

Reykjavik

Squad & Injuries

IA Akranes

Reykjavik