EredivisieFull timeFeatured

Predictions graded

Heerenveen2AZ Alkmaar3

HT 2–1Sun 6 Sept 2026, 12:30 Predictions graded

Predictions8–467%

Edges7–188%

PossPossession 45%–55%ShotsShots 14–15On targetOn target 5–8CornersCorners 4–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 06:25 · Europe/Bucharest

AZ Alkmaar are clear favourites with a 68% model win probability, and the 1.73 odds offer a +10.2-point edge.

The AZ/AZ half-time/full-time double at 2.60 (+6.5 points) and Over 1.5 second-half goals at 1.95 (+8.7 points) are also value plays. Avoid Over 2.5 goals, BTTS Yes, and AZ Clean Sheet No, as those markets are overpriced relative to our estimates.

Context

AZ Alkmaar lead the Eredivisie table with 12 points from four matches, the only team with a perfect record.
They have scored 13 goals and conceded only 3, including a 5-2 home win over GO Ahead Eagles on 29 August and a 4-1 away win at Utrecht on 15 August. This attacking output and defensive solidity make them a difficult opponent for Heerenveen, who have conceded six goals in four matches. However, Heerenveen have drawn their last two away games, so they may be able to frustrate AZ Alkmaar if they defend well.
- AZ Alkmaar have won all four Eredivisie matches this season, scoring 13 goals and conceding 3.
- They beat GO Ahead Eagles 5-2 at home on 29 August 2026.
- They beat Utrecht 4-1 away on 15 August 2026.
Heerenveen are 11th in the Eredivisie with five points from four matches.
At home, they lost 0-2 to PEC Zwolle on 22 August and beat Twente 1-0 on 9 August. Their only home goal came in that win, and they have averaged just 0.5 goals per home game. AZ Alkmaar have kept two clean sheets in four league matches, so Heerenveen's lack of home scoring could be a problem.
- Heerenveen lost 0-2 at home to PEC Zwolle on 22 August 2026.
- Heerenveen beat Twente 1-0 at home on 9 August 2026.
- Heerenveen have scored only one goal in two home league matches this season.
The teams have met five times in the Eredivisie since September 2024.
AZ Alkmaar won all five, with the most recent being a 3-0 home victory on 12 April 2026. In that match, AZ Alkmaar had 58% possession and 23 shots to Heerenveen's 7. This pattern suggests AZ Alkmaar know how to beat Heerenveen, but past results do not guarantee future success.
- AZ Alkmaar beat Heerenveen 3-0 at home on 12 April 2026.
- AZ Alkmaar have won the last five meetings between the teams.
- In the April 2026 match, AZ Alkmaar had 23 shots to Heerenveen's 7.
AZ Alkmaar have played two away matches in the Eredivisie this season.
They won 2-0 at Fortuna Sittard on 22 August and 4-1 at Utrecht on 15 August. In those games, they averaged 72% possession and 25 shots, showing they control matches away from home. Heerenveen have drawn both their away games, so this match at Heerenveen's ground may be more competitive, but AZ Alkmaar's away record is impressive.
- AZ Alkmaar won 2-0 at Fortuna Sittard on 22 August 2026.
- AZ Alkmaar won 4-1 at Utrecht on 15 August 2026.
- AZ Alkmaar have scored six goals and conceded one in two away league matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AZ's perfect league start and dominant H2H record make them clear favourites.
- AZ Alkmaar have won all 4 Eredivisie matches this season, scoring 13 and conceding 3.
- Heerenveen have only 1 win in 4 league games, with 5 goals scored and 6 conceded.
- AZ won the last 5 H2H meetings, including 3-0 and 9-1 home wins.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAZ AlkmaarEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
AZ's unbeaten run and Heerenveen's inconsistent form make a Heerenveen win unlikely.
- AZ have not lost in their last 4 league matches.
- Heerenveen have drawn 2 of their 4 league games, but lost the other home match.
- AZ have won all 4 league matches this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or AZ AlkmaarEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
AZ's superior first-half performance and Heerenveen's tendency to trail make AZ the likely half-time leader.
- AZ have led at half-time in 47% of recent matches; Heerenveen in 29%.
- AZ average 0.9 first-half goals scored vs 0.5 conceded.
- Heerenveen average 0.8 first-half goals scored vs 0.7 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostAZ AlkmaarEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AZ's tendency to start strong and maintain leads supports a half-time/full-time double.
- AZ have led at half-time in 47% of recent matches and won all 4 league games.
- Heerenveen have trailed at half-time in 21% of matches and lost 1 of 2 home games.
- AZ won the last 5 H2H meetings, often leading early.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostAZ Alkmaar/AZ AlkmaarEstimated chance45%

Goals5 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring averages and AZ's attacking form suggests multiple goals.
- AZ average 2.4 goals scored per match in recent form; Heerenveen average 2.1.
- AZ's last 5 league matches have produced 3+ goals in 4 of them.
- Heerenveen's recent matches have seen 3+ goals in 6 of their last 10.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Heerenveen's scoring ability and AZ's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.
- Heerenveen have scored in 3 of their 4 league matches this season.
- AZ have conceded in 3 of their 4 league matches despite winning all.
- Heerenveen average 2.1 goals scored per match in recent form.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score in the first half, but the line is high relative to averages.
- AZ average 0.9 first-half goals scored; Heerenveen average 0.8.
- AZ have led at half-time in 47% of recent matches; Heerenveen in 29%.
- Combined first-half goal averages are 1.7 per match.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score more in the second half, and AZ's attacking depth should produce late goals.
- AZ average 1.5 second-half goals per match (total 2.4 minus 0.9 first-half).
- Heerenveen average 1.3 second-half goals per match (2.1 minus 0.8).
- AZ's last 5 league matches have seen 2+ second-half goals in 4.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Heerenveen's scoring record and AZ's occasional defensive lapses make an AZ clean sheet unlikely.
- AZ have conceded in 3 of their 4 league matches this season.
- Heerenveen have scored in 3 of their 4 league matches.
- Heerenveen average 2.1 goals scored per match in recent form.
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonHeerenveen to scoreEstimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate high corner counts, and AZ's attacking style should push the total over.
- AZ average 7.6 corners per match; Heerenveen average 5.7.
- AZ's recent matches have averaged 11.6 total corners.
- Heerenveen's recent matches have averaged 11.4 total corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce high shot-on-target numbers, especially AZ's attacking volume.
- AZ average 6.9 shots on target per match; Heerenveen average 5.4.
- AZ's last 5 league matches have seen 8+ shots on target in 4.
- Heerenveen's recent matches have averaged 10.8 total shots on target.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card averages are below the line, but competitive intensity could push it over.
- Heerenveen average 1.2 yellow cards per match; AZ average 1.0.
- Combined average yellow cards is 2.2, below the line.
- Recent H2H matches have seen moderate card counts.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance48%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 47.6% vs our 52% estimate leaves only a 4.4-point edge, below the medium-confidence threshold; the price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L3-0AZ AlkmaarvHeerenveenApr 12, 2026ERE

W3-1HeerenveenvAZ AlkmaarNov 23, 2025ERE

L4-1AZ AlkmaarvHeerenveenMay 22, 2025ERE

W3-1HeerenveenvAZ AlkmaarMar 2, 2025ERE

L9-1AZ AlkmaarvHeerenveenSep 14, 2024ERE

5.2 goals/game avg

League Table

Eredivisie 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
11	Heerenveen	4	1	2	1	5-6	5	DLDW
1	AZ Alkmaar Promotion - Champions League (League phase)	4	4	0	0	13-3	12	WWWW

7pt gap between teamsAZ Alkmaar leads the league

Recent Form

Heerenveen

D2-2Willem IIAug 30ERE

L0-2PEC ZwolleAug 22ERE

D2-2AjaxAug 16ERE

W1-0TwenteAug 9ERE

W3-2Volos NFCAug 1FRI

D4-4OH LeuvenJul 25FRI

W3-2Club Brugge KVJul 17FRI

W7-2De GraafschapJul 3FRI

L2-3UtrechtMay 21ERE

D0-0AjaxMay 17ERE

L0-2NAC BredaMay 11ERE

W2-0FC VolendamMay 3ERE

W2-1Fortuna SittardApr 25ERE

L0-3AZ AlkmaarApr 12ERE

W4-1HeraclesApr 5ERE

AZ Alkmaar

W5-2GO Ahead EaglesAug 29ERE

W2-0Fortuna SittardAug 22ERE

W4-1UtrechtAug 15ERE

W2-0ADO Den HaagAug 8ERE

W4-0PSV EindhovenAug 2SUP

W3-2Olympiakos PiraeusJul 25FRI

W4-0GenkJul 22FRI

D1-1Zulte WaregemJul 18FRI

L0-1AnderlechtJul 15FRI

W2-1Almere City FCJul 11FRI

D3-3GentJul 4FRI

D3-3NAC BredaMay 17ERE

D1-1FeyenoordMay 10ERE

D2-2TwenteMay 3ERE

D0-0GO Ahead EaglesApr 23ERE

Squad & Injuries

Heerenveen

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders7

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

AZ Alkmaar

35 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders12

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

AZ Alkmaar

Draw or AZ Alkmaar

AZ Alkmaar at half-time / AZ Alkmaar at full-time

Over 1.5

Over 2.5

Yes

Heerenveen to score

Over 8.5

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals5 of 5 landed

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 9.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Heerenveen

AZ Alkmaar

Squad & Injuries

Heerenveen

AZ Alkmaar