FC Naples0AC Boise1

HT 0–1Sun 6 Sept 2026, 00:05 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges5–271%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 03:15 · Europe/Bucharest

AC Boise are slight favorites (45% win probability) in a match with moderate scoring potential, but the betting market offers no clear value—most odds are shorter than the model's fair prices.

The only positive edge is on AC Boise to win at 2.25, but it's too small to act on. Avoid heavily juiced markets like 'Win Both Halves - No' and first-half goal lines.

Context

AC Boise sits 6th in USL League One with 38 points, in a playoff position.
Their away record shows 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses in 11 matches, with 18 goals scored and 21 conceded. This suggests they are less solid on the road than at home, where they have 7 wins in 12. FC Naples, despite a poor overall record, has won 6 of 11 home games, so this match could be closer than the table suggests.
- AC Boise away record: 4 wins, 3 draws, 4 losses in 11 matches, 18 goals for, 21 against.
- FC Naples home record: 6 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses in 11 matches, 15 goals for, 15 against.
FC Naples is 11th in the league with 26 points.
They have allowed 39 goals in 23 matches, the third-worst defensive record among teams above the bottom two. AC Boise has scored 36 goals in 23 matches, averaging 1.6 per game, so they have the firepower to trouble Naples. However, Naples' home defense has been better, conceding only 15 goals in 11 home games.
- FC Naples conceded 39 goals in 23 matches overall.
- AC Boise scored 36 goals in 23 matches overall.
- FC Naples conceded only 15 goals in 11 home matches.
AC Boise is pushing for a playoff spot.
Their recent form is WDWDL, with wins over Chattanooga Red Wolves (3-2 away) and Forward Madison (2-1 home), and a draw against One Knoxville (2-2 away). This suggests they are in good scoring form, but they also concede goals, which could make for an open match.
- AC Boise beat Chattanooga Red Wolves 3-2 away on 2026-08-29.
- AC Boise beat Forward Madison 2-1 home on 2026-08-09.
- AC Boise drew 2-2 with One Knoxville away on 2026-08-22.
FC Naples is mid-table with 26 points.
Their recent form is LWWLW, with a heavy 4-0 loss to Greenville Triumph away, but they also beat Union Omaha 2-0 at home. This inconsistency makes them hard to predict, but their home form is more reliable, with wins in three of their last four home matches.
- FC Naples lost 4-0 to Greenville Triumph away on 2026-08-29.
- FC Naples beat Union Omaha 2-0 home on 2026-08-26.
- FC Naples beat Alta 2-1 away on 2026-08-23.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or AC Boise

1.43fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 69.9%

0.0ppshort

Combining AC Boise's away resilience with FC Naples' inconsistent home form makes a draw or away win likely.

Win Both HalveswonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.10fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 90.9%

0.0ppshort

Neither team consistently wins both halves, making 'No' highly likely.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.33fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making over 0.5 first half goals probable.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Given moderate first half scoring, both teams scoring in the first half is unlikely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AC Boise's stronger overall standing and comparable away form give them a slight edge over FC Naples, whose home advantage is modest.
- AC Boise away record: 4W-3D-4L, 18 goals for, 21 against in 11 away matches
- FC Naples home record: 6W-1D-4L, 15 goals for, 15 against in 11 home matches
- AC Boise last 5 form: W-D-W-D-L; FC Naples last 5 form: L-W-W-L-W
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAC BoiseEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining AC Boise's away resilience with FC Naples' inconsistent home form makes a draw or away win likely.
- FC Naples home losses: 4 in 11 home matches
- AC Boise away losses: 4 in 11 away matches
- H2H last meeting ended 0-0 draw
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or AC BoiseEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate first half scoring and often go into halftime level, making a draw the most likely first half result.
- FC Naples leading at half time: 33%, trailing: 47%
- AC Boise leading at half time: 27%, trailing: 13%
- Both teams often level at half time in recent matches
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
AC Boise's superior second half performance suggests they may edge the second period.
- AC Boise second half goal difference: +0.6 per match (1.0 for, 0.4 against)
- FC Naples second half goal difference: -0.7 per match (0.7 for, 1.4 against)
- AC Boise stronger in second halves based on recent form
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerlostAC BoiseEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by an AC Boise win is a plausible but low probability outcome.
- First half draw probability: 40%
- AC Boise full time win probability: 45%
- Combined probability estimate: 18%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/AC BoiseEstimated chance25%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team consistently wins both halves, making 'No' highly likely.
- FC Naples won both halves in only 1 of last 15 matches
- AC Boise won both halves in 2 of last 15 matches
- Both teams rarely dominate both halves
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
AC Boise's strong first half defensive record makes a draw or AC Boise lead at half time likely.
- AC Boise first half trailing rate: 13%
- FC Naples first half trailing rate: 47%
- AC Boise less likely to trail at half time
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDraw or AC BoiseEstimated chance60%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches show high scoring tendencies, especially AC Boise's away games, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- FC Naples average goals per match: 1.1 for, 2.1 against
- AC Boise average goals per match: 1.6 for, 1.3 against
- FC Naples home matches average 2.73 total goals; AC Boise away matches average 3.55 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and defensive vulnerabilities, making both teams scoring likely.
- FC Naples scored in 10 of last 15 matches
- AC Boise scored in 13 of last 15 matches
- FC Naples conceded in 13 of last 15 matches; AC Boise conceded in 10 of last 15
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, making over 0.5 first half goals probable.
- FC Naples first half goals: 0.4 per match; first half goals conceded: 0.9
- AC Boise first half goals: 0.6 per match; first half goals conceded: 0.4
- Combined first half goal average: 1.15 per match
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring rates suggest a moderate chance of over 1.5 goals, though confidence is low due to variability.
- FC Naples second half goals average: 0.7 (1.1 total - 0.4 first half)
- AC Boise second half goals average: 1.0 (1.6 total - 0.6 first half)
- Combined second half goal average: 1.7
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given moderate first half scoring, both teams scoring in the first half is unlikely.
- FC Naples first half goals: 0.4 per match; AC Boise first half goals: 0.6
- Combined first half scoring rate: 1.0 goals per match
- Both teams scoring in first half requires at least 2 goals, which is less common
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance65%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 70% leaves no cushion vs our 68% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

AC Boise has been highly reliable when projected to win

AC Boise has fulfilled 5 of 6 recent win predictions, a strong 83% rate. The average estimated probability was 47.8%, but they won 83% of those matches, exceeding the expected 2.9 wins. Their only miss came away from home, while they have won all four home matches when projected to win.

Recent evidence for AC Boise6 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

30 Jul·USL League One