Vasteras SK0Sirius1

HT 0–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 15:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–833%

Edges2–340%

PossPossession 57%–43%ShotsShots 12–10On targetOn target 2–4CornersCorners 8–2

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 17:48 · Europe/Bucharest

Sirius are league leaders but recent form and midfield absences make the away win overpriced at 1.88.

The best value is over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.15, where our 55% estimate exceeds the 46.5% implied probability.

Context

Sirius are first in the Allsvenskan with 42 points from 19 matches, 13 points ahead of Vasteras SK. Their away record is strong: 7 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss in 9 away games.
Recent league form is concerning: losses to Malmo FF (0-1 on 31 August), BK Hacken (0-3 on 21 August), and Mjallby AIF (3-4 on 15 August), with only a draw against IF Brommapojkarna (2-2 on 10 August) in that span. However, their away record this season is excellent, with 7 wins in 9 matches, so they may still be dangerous on the road. The contrast between overall table position and recent results makes this match less predictable.
- Sirius are 1st in the Allsvenskan with 42 points from 19 matches.
- Sirius have lost 3 of their last 4 league matches: 0-1 vs Malmo FF (31 Aug), 0-3 vs BK Hacken (21 Aug), 3-4 vs Mjallby AIF (15 Aug).
- Sirius have a strong away record: 7 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 9 away matches.
Sirius start the Västerås trip top of Allsvenskan on 42 points after 19 matches, six points ahead of Hammarby.
The away side has a clear competition incentive to maintain that lead in this fixture. The linked analysis sees Sirius's superior league position and strong away form as the basis for a medium-confidence edge, though Vasteras SK's home resilience keeps the outcome uncertain.
- The updated table lists Sirius first with 42 points from 19 matches.
- The fixture is scheduled as Allsvenskan Round 20.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 17:47 · Europe/BucharestSky Sports — Västerås SK vs IK Sirius tablewww.skysports.com · 31 Aug 2026Sirius Fotboll — Avsparkstider Allsvenskan 2026 - Omgång 18-23www.siriusfotboll.se · 30 Aug 2026
Vasteras SK are 8th in the Allsvenskan with 29 points from 19 matches. Their home record is 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses in 9 matches.
At home, Vasteras SK have been inconsistent: they beat Djurgardens IF 1-0 on 10 August and Degerfors IF 2-0 on 12 July, but lost to IFK Goteborg 4-5 on 31 May and Gais 0-1 on 9 May. They also drew 0-0 with Kalmar FF on 23 August. This mixed home form suggests they may find it hard to beat a top side like Sirius, even with home advantage.
- Vasteras SK home record: 3 wins, 4 draws, 2 losses in 9 matches.
- Recent home results: 1-0 win vs Djurgardens IF (10 Aug), 0-0 draw vs Kalmar FF (23 Aug), 4-5 loss vs IFK Goteborg (31 May).
Vasteras SK defender P. Amoran joined from Parma on 30 August.
He adds a central-defensive selection option while two defenders are injured. The club said he would compete immediately for places at centre-back, which could alter the home back line for this match.
- VSK announced P. Amoran's signing from Parma on 30 August.
- VSK's sporting director said he would compete immediately for places at centre-back and cited two injured defenders.
ConfirmedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 17:47 · Europe/BucharestVSK Fotboll — Peter Amoran klar för VSK Fotbollwww.vskfotboll.nu · 30 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Sirius

1.89fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 53%

0.0ppshort

Sirius's strong away record and league position are offset by recent poor form and midfield absences, making the 1.88 price too short relative to our 45% estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Sirius

1.28fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 78%

0.0ppshort

Sirius's strong away form and Vasteras's high home draw rate support a Sirius win or draw, but the 1.29 price already reflects that likelihood.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sirius's superior league position, strong away form, and recent H2H win give them the edge, though Vasteras SK's home resilience keeps confidence medium.
- Sirius are 1st with 42 points, 13 points ahead of 8th-placed Vasteras SK.
- Sirius away record: 7W-1D-1L, 24 goals scored, 12 conceded in 9 away matches.
- Vasteras SK home record: 3W-4D-2L, 15 goals scored, 12 conceded in 9 home matches.
- Sirius won the last league H2H 4-1 at home in April 2026.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSiriusEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Sirius's strong away form and Vasteras SK's high home draw rate make a Sirius win or draw highly likely.
- Sirius away record: 7W-1D-1L in 9 away matches.
- Vasteras SK home record: 3W-4D-2L in 9 home matches.
- Sirius have lost only 3 of 19 league matches this season.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or SiriusEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sirius's superior first-half scoring and half-time lead rate give them an edge, but the margin is not decisive.
- Sirius led at half-time in 60% of recent matches.
- Vasteras SK led at half-time in 40% of recent matches.
- Sirius average 1.3 first-half goals scored vs Vasteras SK's 0.9.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSiriusEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sirius's stronger second-half scoring and overall winning record suggest they may edge the second half, but uncertainty remains.
- Sirius average 0.9 second-half goals scored vs Vasteras SK's 0.6.
- Sirius average 0.9 second-half goals conceded vs Vasteras SK's 0.7.
- Sirius have won 13 of 19 league matches, showing ability to close out games.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonSiriusEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sirius's tendency to lead at half-time and win matches supports the HT/FT double, but the probability is modest given Vasteras SK's home resilience.
- Sirius led at half-time in 60% of recent matches.
- Sirius won 13 of 19 league matches this season.
- Vasteras SK trailed at half-time in 27% of recent matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostSirius/SiriusEstimated chance28%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent scoring and conceding rates, especially Sirius's high away goal involvement, support over 2.5 goals.
- Sirius average 2.2 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match in recent form.
- Vasteras SK average 1.5 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match in recent form.
- Sirius away matches average 4.0 total goals (24 scored + 12 conceded in 9 games).
- Vasteras SK home matches average 3.0 total goals (15 scored + 12 conceded in 9 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams show consistent scoring and conceding patterns at their respective venues, making BTTS likely.
- Sirius have scored in 8 of their last 9 away league matches.
- Vasteras SK have scored in 7 of their last 9 home league matches.
- Sirius have conceded in 5 of their last 9 away league matches.
- Vasteras SK have conceded in 6 of their last 9 home league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sirius's strong first-half scoring and Vasteras SK's first-half concessions suggest potential for multiple first-half goals, but confidence is low due to variability.
- Sirius average 1.3 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded in recent form.
- Vasteras SK average 0.9 first-half goals scored and 0.9 conceded in recent form.
- Sirius led at half-time in 60% of recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined second-half scoring and conceding averages exceed 1.5 goals, supporting over 1.5 in the second half.
- Sirius average 0.9 second-half goals scored (2.2 total - 1.3 first-half).
- Vasteras SK average 0.6 second-half goals scored (1.5 total - 0.9 first-half).
- Sirius average 0.9 second-half goals conceded (1.4 total - 0.5 first-half).
- Vasteras SK average 0.7 second-half goals conceded (1.6 total - 0.9 first-half).
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Sirius's high corner count and Vasteras SK's moderate corner involvement suggest a total around 9-10 corners, making over 9.5 a coin flip.
- Sirius average 6.0 corners per match in recent form.
- Vasteras SK average 3.5 corners per match in recent form.
- Sirius away matches average 5.8 corners for and 5.0 against (based on recent data).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average shots on target slightly exceeds 9.5, but variance makes this a borderline call.
- Sirius average 6.2 shots on target per match in recent form.
- Vasteras SK average 4.4 shots on target per match in recent form.
- Combined average shots on target: 10.6 per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average yellow cards is below 3.5, but match intensity could push it over, making it a near 50-50 proposition.
- Vasteras SK average 1.5 yellow cards per match in recent form.
- Sirius average 1.6 yellow cards per match in recent form.
- Combined average yellow cards: 3.1 per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%