División Profesional - ClausuraFull time

Predictions graded

Sportivo San Lorenzo12 de Mayo2

HT 1–1Sat 5 Sept 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–650%

Edges7–0100%

PossPossession 43%–57%ShotsShots 10–11On targetOn target 2–4CornersCorners 5–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Sep 2026, 02:58 · Europe/Bucharest

2 de Mayo are strong favourites to win or draw against a struggling San Lorenzo side, but the odds are extremely short and offer no value.

The match is likely to be low-scoring, with under 2.5 goals and an away clean sheet plausible, yet the market has already priced these outcomes heavily. Avoid betting on the obvious outcomes; the only actionable insight is that San Lorenzo's relegation desperation could produce a surprise, but the data does not support a value bet.

Context

Sportivo San Lorenzo are 12th in the 12-team Clausura table with one point from eight matches.
They have lost five consecutive league games, including a 1-2 home defeat to 2 de Mayo on 5 September 2026. Their only point came from a 1-1 draw at Deportivo Recoleta on 25 July 2026. This run leaves them with no home wins and no goals scored at home in three Clausura matches.
- Sportivo San Lorenzo are 12th with 1 point from 8 matches (0W, 1D, 7L).
- They have lost their last five league matches, including a 1-2 home loss to 2 de Mayo on 5 September 2026.
- At home in the Clausura they have 0 wins, 0 draws, 3 losses, scoring 0 goals and conceding 6.
Sportivo San Lorenzo entered the match last in both the Clausura and relegation-average tables, with relegation possible before the first half of the season ended.
The immediate survival stakes increase the home side's incentive to chase a result, particularly if the score is level or they fall behind. This pressure may lead to more aggressive play and risk-taking, though it does not guarantee improved performance.
- ABC placed San Lorenzo last in both the Clausura and average tables before the match.
- ABC reported that relegation could be confirmed with three first-half rounds still remaining.
ReportedSources checked 6 Sep 2026, 02:56 · Europe/BucharestABC Colorwww.abc.com.py · 5 Sep 2026
2 de Mayo are 1st in the Clausura with 18 points from 8 matches.
They have won five and drawn three, scoring 10 goals and conceding only 5. Their away record is also strong: 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses in 3 matches. This unbeaten run includes a 2-1 win at Sportivo San Lorenzo on 5 September 2026.
- 2 de Mayo are 1st with 18 points from 8 matches (5W, 3D, 0L).
- They have scored 10 goals and conceded 5, with a goal difference of +5.
- Away from home they have 2 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses in 3 matches.
The teams met on 5 September 2026 in the Clausura.
2 de Mayo won 2-1 at Sportivo San Lorenzo, with the away side scoring twice and the home side once. This was the most recent meeting and gives 2 de Mayo a direct recent advantage in this fixture.
- On 5 September 2026, 2 de Mayo won 2-1 away against Sportivo San Lorenzo in the Clausura.
- In the last five meetings, 2 de Mayo have won three, Sportivo San Lorenzo one, and one draw.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Lean

2 de Mayo

1.10fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 91%

0.0ppshort

Despite 2 de Mayo's strong form, the market price of 1.10 implies a 91% probability, far above our 62% estimate, leaving no value.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or 2 de Mayo

1.10fair 1.18

BetBugs 85% · Market 91%

−6.0ppshort

Our 85% estimate is below the 91% implied probability, so the odds do not provide value despite the high confidence.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw at half-time / 2 de Mayo at full-time

1.11fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 90%

0.0ppshort

Our 40% estimate is far below the 90% implied probability, making this a poor value bet despite the plausible sequence.

Total GoalswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 3.5

1.29fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 77.5%

−19.5ppshort

San Lorenzo's 0.4 goals per game and 2 de Mayo's solid defense support a low-scoring match.

Total GoalswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 4.5

1.01fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 99%

−41.0ppshort

The extreme odds reflect near-certainty, but our model still sees value in the under.

Total Goals HomewonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.11fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 90.1%

−32.1ppshort

San Lorenzo's severe scoring struggles make under 1.5 team goals highly likely.

Total Goals AwaywonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.11fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 90.1%

−32.1ppshort

2 de Mayo's scoring average and San Lorenzo's defensive record suggest under 2.5 away goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The away side's superior form and the home side's relegation crisis make an away win the most likely outcome.
- 2 de Mayo are unbeaten in the Clausura with 5 wins and 3 draws, while San Lorenzo have lost all 8 league matches.
- San Lorenzo have scored only 2 goals and conceded 15 in 8 Clausura games.
- 2 de Mayo won the most recent H2H 2-1 away from home.
BetBugs · Match Winnerwon2 de MayoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given San Lorenzo's inability to win and 2 de Mayo's unbeaten run, the away side or draw is highly probable.
- 2 de Mayo have not lost in 8 Clausura matches.
- San Lorenzo have failed to win any of their 8 Clausura matches.
- San Lorenzo have lost 7 of their last 8 league games.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDraw or 2 de MayoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The pattern of level scores at half-time in recent matches for both teams supports a draw at the break.
- San Lorenzo have drawn at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- 2 de Mayo have drawn at half-time in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- Both teams have low first-half scoring rates.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an away win is a plausible sequence given 2 de Mayo's second-half strength and San Lorenzo's tendency to fade.
- 2 de Mayo have won 5 of their 8 Clausura matches.
- San Lorenzo have drawn at half-time in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- 2 de Mayo have scored more goals in the second half than the first.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw / 2 de MayoEstimated chance40%

Goals0 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' scoring and conceding averages suggest a low-scoring match, with 2 de Mayo's solid defense limiting chances.
- San Lorenzo average 0.4 goals scored and 1.7 conceded per game in the Clausura.
- 2 de Mayo average 1.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game.
- Combined average goals per game for both teams is 2.1.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
San Lorenzo's severe scoring struggles and 2 de Mayo's defensive solidity make it unlikely both teams will score.
- San Lorenzo have failed to score in 6 of their 8 Clausura matches.
- 2 de Mayo have kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 6 league games.
- San Lorenzo average only 0.4 goals per game.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
2 de Mayo's strong defensive record and San Lorenzo's attacking impotence support an away clean sheet.
- 2 de Mayo have kept clean sheets in 4 of their last 6 league matches.
- San Lorenzo have failed to score in 6 of their 8 Clausura games.
- San Lorenzo have scored only 2 goals in 8 league matches.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSportivo San Lorenzo not to scoreEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be cautious early, with low first-half scoring averages.
- San Lorenzo average 0.3 first-half goals and concede 0.6 first-half goals.
- 2 de Mayo average 0.5 first-half goals and concede 0.3 first-half goals.
- Combined first-half average goals is 1.1.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second half may see more goals as San Lorenzo chase the game and 2 de Mayo exploit spaces.
- San Lorenzo concede an average of 1.1 goals in the second half.
- 2 de Mayo score an average of 1.0 goals in the second half.
- 2 de Mayo's away matches have seen 2.0 goals per game on average.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance52%

Match stats2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages are close to the line, and San Lorenzo's home matches may see more attacking intent.
- San Lorenzo average 5.0 corners per game and concede 3.0 corners per game.
- 2 de Mayo average 3.2 corners per game and concede 5.0 corners per game.
- Combined average corners per game is 8.2.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low shots on target averages, suggesting a low total.
- San Lorenzo average 1.7 shots on target per game.
- 2 de Mayo average 3.5 shots on target per game.
- Combined average shots on target is 5.2.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The match may be competitive with relegation pressure, potentially leading to more cards.
- San Lorenzo average 1.5 yellow cards per game.
- 2 de Mayo average 2.0 yellow cards per game.
- Combined average yellow cards is 3.5.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance55%