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Predictions graded

Degerfors2Halmstad0

HT 0–0Sat 5 Sept 2026, 13:00 Predictions graded

Predictions12–286%

Edges7–188%

PossPossession 49%–51%ShotsShots 21–11On targetOn target 5–3CornersCorners 12–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 1 Sep 2026, 17:28 · Europe/Bucharest

Degerfors vs Halmstad is a relegation six-pointer with poor home and away form respectively, but the betting markets offer no value: Degerfors to win is overpriced at 1.85 (model 42% vs implied 54%), and the first-half markets are heavily juiced.

The best approach is to avoid betting on this match, as the market has already priced in the likely tight, low-scoring outcome.

Context

Degerfors are 14th with 16 points, in the relegation playoff spot. Halmstad are 16th with 11 points, in the automatic relegation place.
A win for Degerfors would move them five points clear of the bottom two, while a Halmstad win would close the gap to two points. Both teams need points urgently, which could lead to a tense and competitive match.
- Degerfors are 14th with 16 points from 19 matches.
- Halmstad are 16th with 11 points from 19 matches.
- The gap between the teams is 5 points.
Degerfors sit 14th with 16 points and Halmstad 16th with 11 after 19 rounds. The bottom two go down automatically and 14th enters the relegation play-off.
This Round 20 meeting directly affects the relegation places, so both sides have a strong incentive to avoid defeat. The table position can influence how aggressively each team pushes late in the game, especially if the score is level.
- The published 2026 schedule identifies Degerfors–Halmstad on 5 September as Round 20.
- The current table lists Degerfors 14th with 16 points and Halmstad 16th with 11 after 19 matches.
- The competition format shown with the table sends the bottom two down and puts 14th into the relegation play-off.
ReportedSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 17:27 · Europe/BucharestHalmstads BK — Fler omgångar fastställdawww.hbk.se · 27 May 2026Allsvenskanfotboll.se — Poängställning i Allsvenskan 2026allsvenskanfotboll.se · 1 Sep 2026
Halmstad are bottom of the table and have struggled on the road.
Their away record is 0 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with only 6 goals scored and 18 conceded. This poor away form is a major concern for Halmstad as they travel to Degerfors.
- Halmstad's away record: 0 wins, 3 draws, 6 losses in 9 matches.
- They have scored 6 goals and conceded 18 away from home.
Degerfors centre-back Juhani Pikkarainen was absent through injury for the 29 August match at Elfsborg.
His availability remains unresolved, and a continued absence would limit Degerfors' central-defence options. The team's defensive organisation may need adjustment if he cannot feature.
- Degerfors’ official 29 August squad announcement listed Juhani Pikkarainen as absent through injury.
- The same announcement was for the Allsvenskan match at Elfsborg, four days before this fixture.
To watchSources checked 1 Sep 2026, 17:27 · Europe/BucharestDegerfors IF — Truppen mot Elfsborg i omgång 19degerforsif.se · 29 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 8

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Degerfors

1.85fair 2.38

BetBugs 42% · Market 54%

0.0ppshort

Despite Halmstad's winless away form, Degerfors' own home struggles and the market's higher implied probability make this a negative value bet.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Degerfors or Draw

1.22fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

The market heavily favours Degerfors or Draw, but our estimate is significantly lower, indicating no value.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.10fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 47.6%

0.0ppshort

The market's implied probability for a first-half draw is slightly higher than our estimate, leaving no value.

1 St Half Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Degerfors or Draw

1.18fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 84.8%

0.0ppshort

The market's implied probability is far above our estimate, indicating no value in this double chance.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Under 2.5

1.78fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 56.2%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have modest scoring records and the match is likely to be tight given the relegation stakes.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 1.5

1.38fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 72.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to have low-scoring first halves, with a combined average below 1.5 goals.

1 St Half Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

No

1.15fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 87%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making it unlikely that both will score in the first half.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result7 of 7 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Degerfors' home advantage and superior H2H record, combined with Halmstad's winless away form, make them the most likely winner.
- Degerfors home record: 2W 2D 5L, 9 goals for, 14 against in 9 home matches.
- Halmstad away record: 0W 3D 6L, 6 goals for, 18 against in 9 away matches.
- H2H last 5: Degerfors won 3, Halmstad won 1, draw 1; Degerfors won the most recent meeting 3-0 away.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDegerforsEstimated chance42%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Degerfors' home advantage and Halmstad's poor away form make a home win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- Degerfors home record: 2W 2D 5L, 9 goals for, 14 against in 9 home matches.
- Halmstad away record: 0W 3D 6L, 6 goals for, 18 against in 9 away matches.
- H2H last 5: Degerfors won 3, Halmstad won 1, draw 1.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDegerfors or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have poor first-half records, making a draw at half-time the most likely outcome.
- Degerfors led at half-time in only 20% of matches and trailed in 67%.
- Halmstad led at half-time in 13% and trailed in 33%.
- Both teams have low first-half scoring rates.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Degerfors' home advantage and Halmstad's poor away second-half record give the home side a slight edge in the second half.
- Degerfors have a better home record in the second half, with 2 wins and 2 draws in 9 home matches.
- Halmstad have not won an away match all season, with 3 draws and 6 losses.
- Degerfors have scored 5 second-half goals at home, while Halmstad have conceded 10 second-half goals away.
BetBugs · Second Half WinnerwonDegerforsEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Degerfors win is a plausible scenario given the home side's ability to improve in the second half.
- Degerfors have drawn at half-time in 4 of 9 home matches.
- Degerfors have won 2 home matches, both after leading at half-time.
- Halmstad have drawn at half-time in 5 of 9 away matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/DegerforsEstimated chance18%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither team has shown the ability to dominate both halves, making it highly unlikely that either will win both halves.
- Degerfors have not won both halves in any of their last 15 matches.
- Halmstad have not won both halves in any of their last 15 matches.
- Both teams have low first-half scoring rates.
BetBugs · Win Both HalveswonNoEstimated chance85%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Halmstad's poor first-half away record and Degerfors' home advantage make a Degerfors or draw first-half result likely.
- Degerfors have led at half-time in 20% of matches and drawn in 13%.
- Halmstad have led at half-time in 13% and drawn in 54%.
- Halmstad have not won the first half in any away match this season.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfwonDegerfors or DrawEstimated chance70%

Goals3 of 5 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have modest scoring records and the match is likely to be tight given the relegation stakes.
- Degerfors average 1.2 goals for and 1.8 goals against per match.
- Halmstad average 1.0 goals for and 1.7 goals against per match.
- Combined average goals per match: 2.85, but both teams have low scoring outputs.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown vulnerability in defense and have scored in a majority of recent matches, making both teams scoring likely.
- Degerfors have scored in 10 of their last 15 matches.
- Halmstad have scored in 9 of their last 15 matches.
- Both teams have conceded in most matches: Degerfors conceded in 13 of 15, Halmstad in 12 of 15.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to have low-scoring first halves, with a combined average below 1.5 goals.
- Degerfors average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.9 first-half goals against.
- Halmstad average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.8 first-half goals against.
- Combined first-half goals average: 1.35.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves tend to be more open as teams push for results, especially in relegation battles.
- Degerfors average 0.7 second-half goals for and 0.9 second-half goals against.
- Halmstad average 0.5 second-half goals for and 0.9 second-half goals against.
- Combined second-half goals average: 1.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making it unlikely that both will score in the first half.
- Degerfors average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.9 first-half goals against.
- Halmstad average 0.5 first-half goals for and 0.8 first-half goals against.
- Both teams have scored in the first half in only 4 of their last 15 matches combined.
BetBugs · Both Teams Score First HalfwonNoEstimated chance65%

Match stats2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate corner counts, and the combined average suggests a total over 9.5 corners is possible.
- Degerfors average 4.4 corners per match and concede 6.0 corners per match.
- Halmstad average 5.0 corners per match and concede 7.0 corners per match.
- Combined average corners per match: 10.4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high shot counts, especially in away matches, making a total over 23.5 shots plausible.
- Degerfors average 10.8 shots per match and concede 14.2 shots per match.
- Halmstad average 13.8 shots per match and concede 16.5 shots per match.
- Combined average shots per match: 25.0.
BetBugs · Shots Over/UnderwonOver 23.5Estimated chance50%