ChampionshipFull time

Predictions graded

Portsmouth0Derby County2

HT 0–1Tue 1 Sept 2026, 18:45 Predictions graded

Predictions1–713%

Edges1–325%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 10:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Portsmouth vs Derby County leans toward goals: Over 2.5 goals (58% estimated, +6 point edge at 1.91) and Both Teams to Score 'Yes' (62%, +6 point edge at 1.80) are the top value plays.

Derby's confirmed absence of Carlton Morris and possible loss of Lewis Travis add risk, but both teams' scoring trends support the over and BTTS markets.

Context

Portsmouth sit 10th with 3 points from two matches, having won away at Lincoln but lost at home to QPR.
Their home loss to QPR on 15 August 2026 ended 1-3, with Portsmouth conceding three first-half goals. That early defensive weakness at home could be tested by Derby, who have scored in both league matches this season. However, one home match is a small sample, so the pattern may not hold.
- Portsmouth lost 1-3 at home to QPR on 2026-08-15, conceding three goals in the first half.
- Portsmouth have played one home league match this season and lost it.
Portsmouth attacker M. Milovanović scored a 95th-minute penalty in the 2-1 defeat at Bristol City.
Mousinho's reported update that Milovanović is probably ready now puts him into immediate consideration for the starting forward role. That could alter Portsmouth's attacking setup and their substitution options during the match.
- PompeyNewsNow reported Mousinho's response on Milovanović starting: “He’s probably ready now.”
- Portsmouth's official account recorded Marko scoring a 95th-minute penalty in the 2-1 defeat at Bristol City.
ReportedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 10:31 · Europe/Bucharest
Derby are 16th with 1 point, having drawn 2-2 at home to Cardiff and lost 1-2 away at Charlton.
Derby's away loss to Charlton on 15 August 2026 came despite leading at half-time, showing they can start well but struggle to hold results. Their only point came from a home draw, so they have yet to prove they can get a result on the road. Portsmouth's home defeat may give Derby a chance, but their own away form is a concern.
- Derby lost 1-2 away at Charlton on 2026-08-15 after leading 1-0 at half-time.
- Derby drew 2-2 at home to Cardiff on 2026-08-22.
Derby County attacker C. Morris started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
Morris is ruled out after straining his calf against Cardiff, leaving Derby with one fewer forward option for starting and in-match changes. His absence narrows the attacking choices available to Eustace at Fratton Park.
- John Eustace said Morris strained his calf in the Cardiff match.
- Eustace said Morris would probably be out for a couple of weeks and would not be available.
- C. Morris started 4 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 10:31 · Europe/BucharestDerby Countywww.dcfc.co.uk · 29 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.35fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Combined first-half goal average is 1.5 and first-half goals occurred in 4 of last 5 H2H, making Over 0.5 likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have struggled to win in their respective home/away splits this season, and recent head-to-head history shows a high draw tendency.
- Portsmouth home record this season: 0W 0D 1L
- Derby away record this season: 0W 0D 1L
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws, 1 Portsmouth win, 1 Derby win
- Portsmouth rank 10th, Derby rank 16th with only 2 points gap
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance32%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Portsmouth's home advantage and Derby's poor away form make a Portsmouth win or draw the most likely double chance outcome.
- Portsmouth are unbeaten in 3 of last 5 H2H meetings (1W 2D)
- Portsmouth have won 2 of last 5 home matches across all competitions
- Derby have lost 3 of last 5 away matches across all competitions
BetBugs · Double ChancelostPortsmouth or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have mixed first half records, and recent H2H meetings show a balanced first half distribution, making a draw at half time plausible.
- Portsmouth led at half time in 27% of matches, trailed in 33%
- Derby led at half time in 43% of matches, trailed in 29%
- Last 5 H2H: 2 draws at half time, 2 Portsmouth leads, 1 Derby lead
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time and full time is a plausible but low probability outcome given both teams' tendency to draw in H2H meetings.
- Portsmouth drew at half time in 40% of matches
- Derby drew at half time in 28% of matches
- Full time draw probability estimated at 32%
- Last 5 H2H: 3 full time draws
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistently been involved in matches with around 2.8 total goals, and recent H2H meetings have averaged over 3 goals, supporting Over 2.5.
- Portsmouth average 1.3 goals for and 1.5 goals against over last 15 matches
- Derby average 1.4 goals for and 1.5 goals against over last 15 matches
- Combined average total goals per match: 2.8
- Last 5 H2H meetings produced 2,2,4,4,4 goals (avg 3.2)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have high scoring rates and have conceded regularly, making it likely that each side finds the net.
- Portsmouth scored in 12 of last 15 matches
- Derby scored in 12 of last 15 matches
- Both teams scored in 8 of Portsmouth's last 15 matches
- Both teams scored in 9 of Derby's last 15 matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score or concede in the first half, with a combined average above 1 goal, making Over 0.5 first half goals highly probable.
- Portsmouth average 0.7 first half goals for and 0.8 first half goals against
- Derby average 0.9 first half goals for and 0.6 first half goals against
- Combined first half goal average: 1.5
- In last 5 H2H, first half goals occurred in 4 matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second half goal averages are slightly below 1.5, but both teams have shown vulnerability late in games, giving a modest edge to Over 1.5.
- Portsmouth average 0.6 second half goals for and 0.7 second half goals against
- Derby average 0.5 second half goals for and 0.9 second half goals against
- Combined second half goal average: 1.35
- Recent matches show late goals: Portsmouth scored 95th minute penalty vs Bristol City
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined average corners per match is exactly 10.0, suggesting a near coin-flip for Over 9.5 corners.
- Portsmouth average 3.4 corners for and 6.4 corners against per match
- Derby average 4.9 corners for and 5.3 corners against per match
- Combined average corners per match: 10.0
- Last 5 H2H corner data unavailable
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derby's high yellow card count and both teams' disciplinary records push the expected total cards above 3.5.
- Portsmouth average 1.8 yellow cards per match
- Derby average 3.0 yellow cards per match
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.8
- Derby received 5 yellow cards in their last match vs Cardiff
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 31.3% leaves no cushion vs our estimate of around 30%; vig too heavy for a directional Over play.

Head-to-Head

0W · 3D · 2W

L0-1PortsmouthvDerbyMar 16, 2026CHA

D1-1DerbyvPortsmouthDec 20, 2025CHA

D2-2PortsmouthvDerbyApr 12, 2025CHA

L4-0DerbyvPortsmouthDec 13, 2024CHA

D2-2PortsmouthvDerbyApr 2, 2024LEA

Derby County unbeaten in 5 meetingsDerby County: 2 clean sheets3 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Portsmouth	2	1	0	1	4-4	3	WL
16	Derby County	2	0	1	1	3-4	1	DL

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Portsmouth

W3-1LincolnAug 22CHA

L1-3QPRAug 15CHA

L1-3West HamAug 8LEA

D0-0SV Darmstadt 98Aug 1FRI

D1-1FarnboroughJul 29FRI

L1-3WycombeJul 25FRI

D1-1Bristol RoversJul 18FRI

L0-2Aldershot TownJul 15FRI

W2-1WokingJul 14FRI

D1-1BirminghamMay 2CHA

W3-1Stoke CityApr 25CHA

L1-5CoventryApr 21CHA

W1-0LeicesterApr 18CHA

W2-0IpswichApr 14CHA

W1-0MiddlesbroughApr 11CHA

Derby County

D2-2CardiffAug 22CHA

L1-2CharltonAug 15CHA

L1-2LincolnAug 8LEA

D1-1RotherhamAug 4FRI

L0-1Burton AlbionAug 1FRI

W3-1Mansfield TownJul 31FRI

L1-2ValenciaJul 28FRI

L1-3SC FreiburgJul 24FRI

W2-0Alfreton TownJul 17FRI

L1-2Sheffield UtdMay 2CHA

W3-2QPRApr 25CHA

L1-2NorwichApr 21CHA

W1-0Oxford UnitedApr 18CHA

L1-2SouthamptonApr 11CHA

W2-0Stoke CityApr 6CHA

Squad & Injuries

Portsmouth

37 available

Attackers10

Midfielders13

Defenders10

Goalkeeper4

Derby County

31 available

Attackers4

Midfielders13

Defenders9

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Portsmouth or Draw

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Portsmouth -1.0

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Portsmouth

Derby County

Squad & Injuries

Portsmouth

Derby County