A LygaFull time

Predictions graded

Dziugas Telsiai2Hegelmann2

HT 1–0Mon 31 Aug 2026, 15:45 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Edges4–180%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 31 Aug 2026, 10:10 · Europe/Bucharest

Dziugas' strong home form and Hegelmann's poor away record make the double chance (Dziugas or Draw) the top value bet at 1.55 odds, with a +10.5 point edge.

Avoid first-half goals over 0.5 due to heavy vig, and note Dziugas' defensive reshuffle after B. Sane's season-ending injury.

Context

Džiugas defender B. Sane started all five recent team fixtures with available lineups before suffering cheekbone fractures against Žalgiris on 23 August.
His confirmed season-ending absence removes a regular starter from the defensive unit, forcing Džiugas to field a replacement and adjust their organization. The club has not named a direct substitute, so the exact change in defensive structure remains uncertain.
- Džiugas said Sane suffered fractures in two places in his cheekbone during the 23 August match against Žalgiris.
- The club said surgery was completed on 24 August and that he will miss the rest of the 2026 season, with at least three months out.
- B. Sane started 5 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ConfirmedSources checked 31 Aug 2026, 10:09 · Europe/BucharestLRTwww.lrt.lt · 24 Aug 2026
Hegelmann sits 8th in the A Lyga with 23 points from 25 matches.
Their away record shows 2 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, with 10 goals scored and 24 conceded. This suggests they struggle on the road, and Dziugas Telsiai, who have 6 home wins, may exploit that.
- Hegelmann away record: 2 wins, 3 draws, 7 losses in 12 matches.
- Hegelmann has conceded 24 goals away, an average of 2 per game.
Dziugas Telsiai is 6th in the A Lyga with 37 points.
In their last three home league games, they lost 0-2 to Suduva Marijampole on 2026-08-17, drew 0-0 with Kauno Žalgiris on 2026-07-03, and won 1-0 against Banga on 2026-07-19. This inconsistency could make the match less predictable.
- Lost 0-2 at home to Suduva Marijampole on 2026-08-17.
- Drew 0-0 at home with Kauno Žalgiris on 2026-07-03.
- Won 1-0 at home against Banga on 2026-07-19.
The teams have met five times since October 2025.
Dziugas Telsiai won 3-0 at home on 2026-05-01, but the most recent match on 2026-06-17 ended 1-1 at Hegelmann. This suggests Dziugas can dominate at home but Hegelmann can compete.
- Dziugas Telsiai 3-0 Hegelmann on 2026-05-01.
- Hegelmann 1-1 Dziugas Telsiai on 2026-06-17.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Dziugas Telsiai

2.10fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 47.6%

0.0ppshort

Dziugas' strong overall home record (6W 2D 5L) and Hegelmann's poor away form (2W 3D 7L) give the hosts a clear edge, reinforced by a 3-0 home win in the last H2H.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dziugas' strong home form and Hegelmann's poor away record give the hosts a clear edge, reinforced by recent H2H success.
- Home record: 6W 2D 5L, 18 goals for, 15 against in 13 home matches
- Away record: 2W 3D 7L, 10 goals for, 24 against in 12 away matches
- Last 5 H2H: Dziugas won 2, drew 2, lost 1 (including 3-0 home win on 2026-05-01)
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDziugas TelsiaiEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Dziugas' home resilience with Hegelmann's away struggles makes the double chance highly likely.
- Dziugas home: 8 unbeaten in 13 (6W 2D)
- Hegelmann away: only 2 wins in 12, 7 losses
- H2H: Dziugas unbeaten in 3 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Double ChancewonDziugas Telsiai or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Dziugas' tendency to lead at the break at home and Hegelmann's frequent first-half deficits support a home lead, though confidence is low.
- Dziugas leading at half-time in 27% of matches overall, 31% at home
- Hegelmann trailing at half-time in 40% of matches overall, 50% away
- H2H: Dziugas led at half-time in 2 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDziugas TelsiaiEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A home win from a leading position is plausible given Hegelmann's away fragility, but the combined probability remains modest.
- Dziugas home win rate: 46% (6/13)
- Dziugas leading at half-time at home: 31%
- Hegelmann away loss rate: 58% (7/12)
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDziugas Telsiai / Dziugas TelsiaiEstimated chance30%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits trend toward higher-scoring games, and recent H2H meetings support over 2.5 goals.
- Dziugas home matches average 2.54 total goals (18+15 in 13)
- Hegelmann away matches average 2.83 total goals (10+24 in 12)
- Last 5 H2H: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS a solid value.
- Dziugas scored in 10 of 13 home matches (77%)
- Hegelmann scored in 8 of 12 away matches (67%)
- H2H: both teams scored in 3 of last 5 meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hegelmann's leaky first-half defense away from home and Dziugas' decent first-half scoring make a first-half goal likely.
- Dziugas first-half goals: 0.7 per match overall, 0.8 at home
- Hegelmann first-half goals conceded: 1.0 per match overall, 1.2 away
- Last 5 H2H: first-half goal in 4 of 5 meetings
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second-half scoring rates for both teams are moderate, making over 1.5 a coin-flip but with slight value.
- Dziugas second-half goals at home: 0.6 per match (18 total - 0.8 first half)
- Hegelmann second-half goals conceded away: 0.8 per match (24 total - 1.2 first half)
- Combined second-half average: 1.4 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Without specific corner stats, this is a neutral estimate based on typical league averages.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams in recent matches
- League average corners typically around 9-10 per match
- No H2H corner data available
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card data is missing, so this is a neutral estimate based on general league trends.
- Discipline data unavailable for both teams
- League average cards typically around 3-4 per match
- No H2H card data available
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 64.5% leaves no cushion vs our 45% win estimate; the draw-no-bet price already reflects the directional read and offers no value.

Head-to-Head

0W · 2D · 3W

D1-1Hegelmann LitauenvDžiugas TelšiaiJun 17, 2026A L

L3-0Džiugas TelšiaivHegelmann LitauenMay 1, 2026A L

D1-1Hegelmann LitauenvDžiugas TelšiaiFeb 28, 2026A L

L2-0Hegelmann LitauenvDžiugas TelšiaiJan 24, 2026FRI

L4-1Hegelmann LitauenvDžiugas TelšiaiOct 23, 2025A L

Hegelmann unbeaten in 5 meetingsHegelmann: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

A Lyga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
6	Dziugas Telsiai	25	10	7	8	34-31	37	LLWDL
8	Hegelmann	25	4	11	10	27-42	23	DLLLW

14pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Dziugas Telsiai

L0-2FK Zalgiris VilniusAug 23A L

L0-2Suduva MarijampoleAug 17A L

W4-3ŠiauliaiAug 9A L

D1-1PanevėžysAug 3A L

L0-1TransINVEST VilniusJul 26A L

W1-0BangaJul 19A L

D0-0Kauno ŽalgirisJul 3A L

D0-0FK Zalgiris VilniusJun 28A L

L1-2ŠiauliaiJun 24CUP

L1-2Suduva MarijampoleJun 21A L

D1-1Hegelmann LitauenJun 17A L

W4-3ŠiauliaiJun 12A L

W4-0PanevėžysMay 30A L

W3-2TransINVEST VilniusMay 24A L

L0-1BangaMay 16A L

Hegelmann

D1-1BangaAug 23A L

L0-2Kauno ŽalgirisAug 8A L

L1-2TransINVEST VilniusAug 2A L

L2-3FK Zalgiris VilniusJul 27A L

W2-0ŠiauliaiJul 24A L

L1-5Suduva MarijampoleJul 20A L

L0-3PaideJul 16UEF

D1-1PaideJul 9UEF

D1-1PanevėžysJul 4A L

L0-2BangaJun 28A L

D1-1Džiugas TelšiaiJun 17A L

D1-1Kauno ŽalgirisJun 14A L

L1-2TransINVEST VilniusMay 29A L

W3-1FK Zalgiris VilniusMay 24A L

L0-2TransINVEST VilniusMay 20CUP

Squad & Injuries

Dziugas Telsiai

26 available

Attackers6

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Hegelmann

29 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders10

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Dziugas Telsiai or Draw

Over 2.5

Dziugas Telsiai

Yes

Over 0.5

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Dziugas Telsiai

Hegelmann

Squad & Injuries

Dziugas Telsiai

Hegelmann