División Profesional - ClausuraFull time

Predictions graded

Guarani Asuncion1Sportivo Ameliano1

HT 0–1Sun 30 Aug 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–736%

Edges3–350%

PossPossession 42%–58%ShotsShots 15–10On targetOn target 2–2CornersCorners 9–5

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Aug 2026, 05:14 · Europe/Bucharest

The strongest value is on Under 2.5 goals (72% model vs 63.7% implied) and especially Under 0.5 first-half goals (62% vs 40% implied, +22pt edge).

Avoid the double chance Guarani or Draw and Over 0.5 first-half goals, both overpriced by the market.

Context

Guarani sit 7th with 8 points, one point behind Ameliano.
At home this Clausura, Guarani have one win and two losses, with five goals scored and six conceded. Their only home win came against Libertad on August 2, but they lost to Rubio NU and Sportivo Luqueno. This suggests they are vulnerable at home, though the sample is small.
- Home record: 1 win, 0 draws, 2 losses in 3 matches, 5 goals for, 6 against.
- Lost 2-3 to Rubio NU on 2026-08-15 and 1-2 to Sportivo Luqueno on 2026-07-26.
Guaraní's goalkeeper position changed on 20 August when Miguel Martínez joined, and he started the 25 August draw at 2 de Mayo.
Martínez's installation alters the continuity of Guaraní's defensive setup. The 0-0 draw at 2 de Mayo was his first start, so his integration is still recent. This change may affect how the back line organises and builds from the back against Ameliano.
- Club Guaraní announced that Miguel Martínez had joined the club on 20 August.
- The APF's official report listed Martínez in Guaraní's starting lineup for the 0-0 draw at 2 de Mayo on 25 August.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 15:18 · Europe/BucharestAPF match report: 2 de Mayo 0-0 Guaraníwww.apf.org.py · 25 Aug 2026
Ameliano are 6th with 9 points, but their away form is weaker than their home form.
Away from home, Ameliano have drawn 1-1 with Rubio NU and lost 1-2 to Olimpia. They have scored two and conceded three in those matches. This suggests they may find it harder to impose themselves at Guarani's ground.
- Away record: 0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in 2 matches, 2 goals for, 3 against.
- Drew 1-1 at Rubio NU on 2026-07-28 and lost 1-2 at Olimpia on 2026-08-16.
The teams have met five times since 2025, with Guarani winning twice and Ameliano once.
In the most recent meeting on 2026-05-16, Guarani won 1-0 at home. However, the previous home meeting in 2025 ended 1-3 to Ameliano, so the head-to-head is mixed. This result is recent but not a strong predictor.
- Guarani 1-0 Ameliano on 2026-05-16.
- Ameliano 3-1 Guarani on 2025-05-18.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 5

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The draw-heavy H2H pattern and both teams' tendency to share points in recent meetings support a stalemate.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws, including 0-0 in March 2026 and 1-1 in Oct 2025
- Guarani home record this Clausura: 1W-0D-2L, but overall form DLDWW
- Sportivo Ameliano away record: 0W-1D-1L, with 2 draws in last 3 overall
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Guarani's home edge and Ameliano's poor away record make the home side less likely to lose.
- Guarani unbeaten in last 2 H2H vs Ameliano (1W,1D)
- Guarani home advantage: 1W-0D-2L, but Ameliano away winless this Clausura
- Ameliano away form: 0W-1D-1L, scoring 2 and conceding 3
BetBugs · Double ChancewonGuarani Asuncion or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The teams' low first-half scoring and the H2H pattern of level halftime scores make a first-half draw the most likely outcome.
- Guarani leading at HT in 33% of matches, trailing in 20%
- Ameliano leading at HT in 13%, trailing in 33%
- H2H last 3: all first halves ended level (0-0, 0-0, 0-0)
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both halftime and fulltime is plausible given the low-scoring, evenly matched nature of this fixture.
- H2H last 5: 3 draws, including 0-0 and 1-1
- Guarani home form: 1W-0D-2L, but Ameliano away winless
- Both teams have high draw percentages in recent form
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance25%

Goals2 of 5 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The consistently low-scoring H2H and both teams' modest attacking output strongly indicate a low-total match.
- H2H last 3 meetings: 0-0, 1-0, 1-1 (all under 2.5)
- Guarani average goals per game: 0.9 for, 1.0 against
- Ameliano average goals per game: 1.3 for, 1.2 against
- Both teams have low first-half scoring: Guarani 0.4, Ameliano 0.5
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H trend of at least one side failing to score, combined with Guarani's defensive solidity in this matchup, makes BTTS No likely.
- H2H last 3: both teams scored only once (1-1 in Oct 2025)
- Guarani kept clean sheet in 2 of last 3 H2H vs Ameliano
- Ameliano failed to score in 2 of last 3 H2H meetings
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Despite a shaky home defense overall, the specific H2H trend and Ameliano's modest away scoring give Guarani a chance at a shutout.
- Guarani kept clean sheet in last home H2H vs Ameliano (1-0 in May 2026)
- Ameliano away goals this Clausura: 2 in 2 games (1.0 per game)
- Guarani home goals conceded: 6 in 3 games (2.0 per game)
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostSportivo Ameliano not to scoreEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are slow starters, and the H2H pattern shows few first-half goals, supporting a goalless opening period.
- Guarani first-half goals average: 0.4
- Ameliano first-half goals average: 0.5
- H2H last 3: first-half goals in only 1 of 3 matches (1-1 had 0-0 at HT)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The low overall scoring trend extends to the second half, with neither team likely to produce multiple goals after the break.
- Guarani second-half goals average: 0.5 (total 0.9 - 0.4 first half)
- Ameliano second-half goals average: 0.8 (total 1.3 - 0.5 first half)
- H2H last 3: second-half goals in 2 of 3 matches, but never more than 1
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonUnder 1.5Estimated chance65%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate relatively few corners, and their combined average suggests a low corner count.
- Guarani average corners per game: 3.6
- Ameliano average corners per game: 3.9
- Combined average corners: 7.5, below the 9.5 line
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The teams' disciplinary records indicate a moderately high card count, with the combined average just over the line.
- Guarani average yellow cards per game: 2.5
- Ameliano average yellow cards per game: 2.3
- Combined average yellow cards: 4.8, slightly above 4.5
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 75% leaves no cushion vs our 68% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L1-0Club GuaranivSportivo AmelianoMay 16, 2026DIV

D0-0Sportivo AmelianovClub GuaraniMar 15, 2026DIV

D1-1Sportivo AmelianovClub GuaraniOct 12, 2025DIV

L4-1Club GuaranivSportivo AmelianoJul 31, 2025DIV

W1-3Club GuaranivSportivo AmelianoMay 18, 2025DIV

Sportivo Ameliano: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Division Profesional - Clausura 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
7	Guarani Asuncion	6	2	2	2	6-6	8	DLDWW
6	Sportivo Ameliano	6	2	3	1	8-6	9	WLWDD

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Guarani Asuncion

D0-02 de MayoAug 25DIV

L2-3Rubio NUAug 15DIV

L1-2Sportivo ItenoAug 12COP

D0-0Nacional AsuncionAug 9DIV

W2-1Libertad AsuncionAug 2DIV

W1-0Club Sp. San LorenzoJul 30DIV

L1-2Sportivo LuquenoJul 26DIV

L1-2Deportivo RecoletaMay 23DIV

W1-0Sportivo AmelianoMay 16DIV

D0-0Cerro PortenoMay 11DIV

L0-1Nacional AsuncionMay 3DIV

D2-22 de MayoApr 26DIV

W2-1Sportivo LuquenoApr 18DIV

L0-1Club Sp. San LorenzoApr 10DIV

W1-0Libertad AsuncionApr 5DIV

Sportivo Ameliano

W3-1Deportivo RecoletaAug 22DIV

L1-2OlimpiaAug 16DIV

L0-1Independiente F.b.c.Aug 11COP

W1-0Cerro PortenoAug 8DIV

D1-12 de MayoAug 1DIV

D1-1Rubio NUJul 28DIV

D1-1Nacional AsuncionJul 25DIV

L1-2Sportivo TrinidenseMay 24DIV

L0-1Club GuaraniMay 16DIV

W3-2Deportivo RecoletaMay 11DIV

D1-1OlimpiaMay 3DIV

D1-1Cerro PortenoApr 24DIV

D1-1Nacional AsuncionApr 20DIV

W2-12 de MayoApr 10DIV

D2-2Sportivo LuquenoApr 5DIV

Squad & Injuries

Guarani Asuncion

38 available

Attackers11

Midfielders13

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3

Sportivo Ameliano

31 available

Attackers7

Midfielders12

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw

Draw

Under 2.5

No

Under 0.5

Guarani Asuncion or Draw

Result2 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 5 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Guarani Asuncion or Draw

Under 1.5

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Guarani Asuncion

Sportivo Ameliano

Squad & Injuries

Guarani Asuncion

Sportivo Ameliano