League OneFull time

Predictions graded

Notts County2Burton Albion1

HT 0–1Sat 29 Aug 2026, 14:00 Predictions graded

Predictions6–460%

Edges3–260%

PossPossession 60%–40%ShotsShots 20–2On targetOn target 8–1CornersCorners 7–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 04:47 · Europe/Bucharest

The model sees a draw as the most likely outcome (34%) and the only market with positive value at odds of 3.30, offering a small edge.

All other markets are either fairly priced or overpriced, with the first-half over 0.5 goals being the worst value. Approach with caution given the sparse H2H data and lack of match-week intel.

Context

Burton Albion attacker M. Dennis has carried the forward workload with no other senior strikers available.
Gary Bowyer said Dennis has carried Burton’s forward workload because there are no other senior strikers, and that a decision would be delayed as long as possible. If Dennis is unavailable, Burton would lose their only senior focal point and have no direct replacement in the squad.
- Bowyer said Dennis had carried Burton’s workload with no other senior strikers available.
- Bowyer said the club hoped Dennis’s issue was fatigue and would give him as long as possible before making a call for Saturday.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 09:53 · Europe/Bucharest
Burton Albion are 7th in League One with 4 points from two matches.
Their away win at Leicester on 22 August is the only away league match they have played this season. This suggests they can perform away from home, but one match is a small sample.
- Burton Albion won 2-1 at Leicester on 22 August 2026.
Notts County defender D. Lipsiuc was cleared to continue after a collision at Luton but is now listed as doubtful.
The defender was cleared to continue after the 22 August collision at Luton, but a subsequent match preview listed him as doubtful. His absence would require Notts to alter their left-sided defensive selection, and the official matchday selection is needed to resolve the conflicting availability picture.
- Notts County said Darius Lipsiuc was assessed after the collision with Jordan Clark at Luton and was cleared to continue.
- Sports Mole’s 27 August team-news preview listed Lipsiuc as a doubt following the clash of heads.
To watchSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 09:53 · Europe/BucharestSports Mole team newswww.sportsmole.co.uk · 27 Aug 2026
Notts County are 15th in League One with 2 points from two matches.
They have drawn both league matches, scoring three and conceding three. This suggests they are competitive but have not found a winning edge yet.
- Notts County drew 2-2 at Luton on 22 August 2026.
- Notts County drew 1-1 at home to Leicester on 15 August 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Notts County or Draw

1.36fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 73.5%

0.0ppshort

Notts County's strong H2H record and solid home form make them unlikely to lose, but the odds are too short to offer value.

1 St Half ResultlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.15fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 46.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to be level at the break, with Notts County drawing at half-time in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.

Both Teams To ScorewonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have scored in 3 of 4 competitive matches this season, suggesting a high likelihood of both finding the net.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.35fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a decent record of scoring in the first half, but the odds heavily favor the over, leaving no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams show a tendency to draw in early-season League One fixtures, with Notts County drawing both matches and Burton drawing one, making a stalemate the most likely single outcome.
- Notts County have drawn both league matches this season (2-2 vs Luton, 1-1 vs Leicester).
- Burton Albion have drawn 1 of 2 league matches (1-1 vs Stevenage).
- Notts County's last 5 competitive matches: 2 draws, 2 wins, 1 loss.
- Burton Albion's last 5 competitive matches: 2 draws, 2 wins, 1 loss.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance34%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Notts County's strong H2H record and solid home form make them unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance of home win or draw.
- Notts County are unbeaten in their last 4 H2H meetings (3 wins, 1 draw).
- Notts County have not lost at home in their last 5 competitive home matches (3 wins, 2 draws).
- Burton Albion have won only 1 of their last 5 away competitive matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonNotts County or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The teams tend to be evenly matched in the first half, with a draw at the break being the most common outcome.
- Notts County have been level at half-time in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Burton Albion have been level at half-time in 2 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Both teams have a first-half goal difference near zero.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both half-time and full-time is a plausible but low-probability outcome given the teams' tendencies to share points.
- Notts County have drawn at half-time and full-time in 2 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Burton Albion have drawn at half-time and full-time in 1 of their last 5 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have been involved in relatively high-scoring games early in the season, but the sample is small, so the over 2.5 goals is only a marginal lean.
- Notts County's league matches this season have averaged 3.0 total goals.
- Burton Albion's league matches this season have averaged 2.5 total goals.
- Notts County's last 5 competitive matches have seen 3+ goals in 3 matches.
- Burton Albion's last 5 competitive matches have seen 3+ goals in 2 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance48%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring and conceding patterns, making it likely that each side finds the net.
- Notts County have scored in all 4 competitive matches this season.
- Burton Albion have scored in 3 of 4 competitive matches this season.
- Notts County have conceded in 3 of 4 competitive matches.
- Burton Albion have conceded in 3 of 4 competitive matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a decent record of scoring in the first half, suggesting at least one goal before the break is likely.
- Notts County have scored a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Burton Albion have scored a first-half goal in 3 of their last 5 competitive matches.
- Notts County's first-half goal average this season is 0.7.
- Burton Albion's first-half goal average this season is 0.5.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second-half scoring rates are modest, making over 1.5 second-half goals a low-confidence lean based on current averages.
- Notts County's second-half goal average this season is 0.6.
- Burton Albion's second-half goal average this season is 0.3.
- Combined second-half average is 0.9 goals per match.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages sit exactly at the 8.5 line, making this a coin-flip proposition with no strong edge.
- Notts County average 3.7 corners per match this season.
- Burton Albion average 4.8 corners per match this season.
- Combined average is 8.5 corners per match.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined card averages slightly exceed the 3.5 line, suggesting a marginal lean toward over 3.5 cards.
- Notts County average 2.3 yellow cards per match this season.
- Burton Albion average 1.6 yellow cards per match this season.
- Combined average is 3.9 cards per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 74% leaves no cushion vs our 68% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 0W

W1-2Burton AlbionvNotts CountySep 24, 2024EFL

W1-0Notts CountyvBurton AlbionSep 3, 2013EFL

2 goals/game avg

League Table

League One 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
15	Notts County	2	0	2	0	3-3	2	DD
7	Burton Albion	2	1	1	0	3-2	4	WD

2pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Notts County

D2-2LutonAug 22LEA

D1-1LeicesterAug 15LEA

D0-0WalsallAug 1FRI

L0-2Nottingham ForestJul 18FRI

L1-3Randers FCJul 14FRI

L0-2ViborgJul 11FRI

W5-0Alfreton TownJul 4FRI

W3-0Salford CityMay 25LEA

D0-0ChesterfieldMay 15LEA

W1-0ChesterfieldMay 10LEA

D1-1Bristol RoversMay 2LEA

W1-0ColchesterApr 25LEA

L1-2BarnetApr 18LEA

L0-4Cambridge UnitedApr 11LEA

W3-1Newport CountyApr 6LEA

Burton Albion

W2-1LeicesterAug 22LEA

D1-1StevenageAug 15LEA

L1-2BlackburnAug 8LEA

W1-0DerbyAug 1FRI

D1-1Solihull MoorsJul 28FRI

L0-1BirminghamJul 22FRI

L0-3LeicesterJul 18FRI

D0-0Alfreton TownJul 11FRI

D2-2Leyton OrientMay 2LEA

D1-1Exeter CityApr 25LEA

D1-1PeterboroughApr 19LEA

W1-0AFC WimbledonApr 11LEA

D0-0Mansfield TownApr 6LEA

D1-1BarnsleyApr 3LEA

L0-1BlackpoolMar 28LEA

Squad & Injuries

Notts County

31 available

Attackers5

Midfielders11

Defenders12

Goalkeeper3

Burton Albion

27 available

Attackers9

Midfielders10

Defenders6

Goalkeeper2