ChampionshipFull time

Predictions graded

Derby County0Swansea City3

HT 0–2Sat 29 Aug 2026, 11:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–555%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 47%–53%ShotsShots 8–23On targetOn target 0–12CornersCorners 5–6

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 18:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Derby's leaky defense and high-scoring matches make Over 2.5 goals (@1.95) and Both Teams to Score (@1.80) the most attractive bets, with small positive edges.

Avoid the heavily juiced Derby or Draw double chance and first-half over 0.5 goals lines, which offer no value.

Context

Swansea City captain B. Cabango was forced off against Sheffield United with a heel problem.
Swansea will assess Cabango again before travelling to Derby, and his absence would force a change in central defence. The heel issue is not considered major, but the late decision leaves Swansea's back line unsettled heading into the match.
- Swansea’s official account said Cabango would continue to be assessed before the Derby trip.
- Matos said the heel issue was not a major concern but that another session was needed before a decision.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 01:49 · Europe/BucharestSwansea Bay Newsswanseabaynews.com · 28 Aug 2026
Derby sit 16th in the Championship with one point from two games.
Their home record shows a 2-2 draw with Cardiff on 22 August and a 1-2 loss to Lincoln in the League Cup on 8 August. This suggests they may struggle to control the match at Pride Park.
- Derby drew 2-2 at home to Cardiff on 22 August 2026.
- Derby lost 1-2 at home to Lincoln in the League Cup on 8 August 2026.
Derby County defender M. Clarke is reported to remain out with a calf injury.
Clarke's absence limits Derby's defensive options while the team works on becoming harder to score against. He started three of the last five available fixtures, so his continued unavailability reduces depth in a key area.
- John Eustace said on August 20 that Clarke would be out for around three months with a calf injury.
- Clarke was absent from Derby’s official match squad for the August 22 draw with Cardiff City.
- M. Clarke started 3 of the 5 recent team fixtures with available lineups.
ReportedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 01:49 · Europe/BucharestAOL reportwww.aol.com · 20 Aug 2026Derby County match reportwww.dcfc.co.uk · 22 Aug 2026
Swansea are 9th in the Championship with four points from two games.
Their away win at Stoke on 15 August shows they can take points on the road. However, it is only one match, so the sample is small.
- Swansea beat Stoke 2-1 away on 15 August 2026.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Lean

Derby County or Draw

1.35fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 74%

0.0ppshort

Derby's home advantage and recent H2H dominance at Pride Park make them unlikely to lose, but the odds imply a much higher probability than our estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Swansea's stronger early-season form and away win, combined with Derby's winless start, give Swansea a slight edge despite Derby's recent H2H success.
- Swansea away record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses (2 goals scored, 1 conceded)
- Derby home record this season: 0 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses (2 goals scored, 2 conceded)
- Derby overall form: 0 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss in last 2 league matches
- Swansea overall form: 1 win, 1 draw, 0 losses in last 2 league matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonSwansea CityEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Derby's home advantage and recent H2H dominance at Pride Park make them unlikely to lose, supporting a double chance of Derby or draw.
- Derby home record: 1 draw in 1 home match this season
- Derby have won 2 of last 3 H2H meetings at home
- Swansea away record: 1 win in 1 away match this season
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDerby County or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The teams are evenly matched in first-half performance, making a draw at halftime a plausible outcome.
- Derby leading at halftime in 43% of last 15 matches
- Swansea leading at halftime in 40% of last 15 matches
- Both teams have similar first-half scoring rates
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at both halftime and fulltime is possible given the teams' balanced first halves and Derby's tendency to draw at home.
- Derby home match this season ended 2-2 after being 1-2 down at halftime
- Swansea away match this season ended 2-1 after being 1-1 at halftime
- No strong pattern of halftime/fulltime results
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance18%

Goals2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Derby's games have been high-scoring, and their home match produced 4 goals, suggesting a likelihood of over 2.5 goals.
- Derby matches this season: 3 goals for, 4 against in 2 games (avg 3.5 total goals)
- Swansea matches this season: 2 goals for, 1 against in 2 games (avg 1.5 total goals)
- Derby home match this season: 2-2 draw (4 goals)
- Swansea away match this season: 2-1 win (3 goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Derby's tendency to both score and concede, combined with Swansea's away scoring ability, makes both teams scoring likely.
- Derby have scored in all 2 league matches this season
- Derby have conceded in all 2 league matches this season
- Swansea have scored in 1 of 2 league matches and conceded in 1 of 2
- Last H2H at Derby: 2-0 Derby (no BTTS), but Derby's current defense is leaky
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have decent first-half scoring records, making it likely that at least one goal is scored before halftime.
- Derby average first half goals for: 0.9 per match (last 15)
- Derby average first half goals against: 0.6 per match (last 15)
- Swansea average first half goals for: 0.7 per match (last 15)
- Swansea average first half goals against: 0.5 per match (last 15)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second halves have been productive in both teams' recent matches, but sample size is small, so confidence is low.
- Derby's home match this season had 4 goals total, with 2 in second half
- Swansea's away match this season had 3 goals total, with 2 in second half
- Derby average second half goals for+against: 1.4+1.5-0.9-0.6 = 1.4 (approx)
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance45%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages are close to the 9.5 line, making this a coin-flip prediction with low confidence.
- Derby average corners per match: 4.9 (last 15)
- Swansea average corners per match: 4.4 (last 15)
- Combined average: 9.3 corners per match
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average slightly exceeds the 8.5 line, but the margin is small, so confidence is low.
- Derby average shots on target per match: 4.6 (last 15)
- Swansea average shots on target per match: 4.0 (last 15)
- Combined average: 8.6 shots on target per match
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonOver 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined yellow card average is above 4.5, suggesting a likely over, but card counts can be volatile.
- Derby average yellow cards per match: 3.0 (last 15)
- Swansea average yellow cards per match: 2.1 (last 15)
- Combined average: 5.1 yellow cards per match
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 4.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 33% vs our 38% estimate gives only a 5pt edge, below the 5pt threshold for MEDIUM confidence; the market is efficient here.

Head-to-Head

2W · 0D · 3W

L2-0DerbyvSwanseaFeb 14, 2026CHA

W1-2SwanseavDerbyNov 25, 2025CHA

L1-0SwanseavDerbyApr 5, 2025CHA

W1-2DerbyvSwanseaNov 27, 2024CHA

L2-1SwanseavDerbyApr 9, 2022CHA

Swansea City: 2 clean sheets2.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Championship 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
16	Derby County	2	0	1	1	3-4	1	DL
9	Swansea City	2	1	1	0	2-1	4	DW

3pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Derby County

D2-2CardiffAug 22CHA

L1-2CharltonAug 15CHA

L1-2LincolnAug 8LEA

D1-1RotherhamAug 4FRI

L0-1Burton AlbionAug 1FRI

W3-1Mansfield TownJul 31FRI

L1-2ValenciaJul 28FRI

L1-3SC FreiburgJul 24FRI

W2-0Alfreton TownJul 17FRI

L1-2Sheffield UtdMay 2CHA

W3-2QPRApr 25CHA

L1-2NorwichApr 21CHA

W1-0Oxford UnitedApr 18CHA

L1-2SouthamptonApr 11CHA

W2-0Stoke CityApr 6CHA

Swansea City

D0-0Sheffield UtdAug 22CHA

W2-1Stoke CityAug 15CHA

L0-1BirminghamAug 8LEA

W1-0LeganesAug 1FRI

L0-3Merthyr TownJul 28FRI

W2-0UdineseJul 24FRI

L0-2VfL BochumJul 21FRI

D2-2Holstein KielJul 18FRI

W3-1CharltonMay 2CHA

D1-1NorwichApr 25CHA

W2-1QPRApr 21CHA

L1-2SouthamptonApr 18CHA

W1-0LeicesterApr 11CHA

D2-2MiddlesbroughApr 6CHA

D3-3Sheffield UtdApr 3CHA

Squad & Injuries

Derby County

31 available

Attackers6

Midfielders10

Defenders10

Goalkeeper5

Swansea City

28 available

Attackers8

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 2.5

Yes

Derby County or Draw

Over 0.5

Result1 of 4 landed

Goals2 of 4 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Derby County or Draw

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Derby County

Swansea City

Squad & Injuries

Derby County

Swansea City