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Botev PlovdivLevski Sofia

Sat 29 Aug 2026, 18:1529 Aug, 18:15

10Probabilities0Priced5Edges80%Strongest

Strong leanLeanSlight leanNear coin-flip

Quick Take

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Context last updated 26 Aug 2026, 23:56 · Europe/Bucharest

Levski Sofia are the likely winners, but the market has already priced in their dominance, leaving no value on the away win or double chance.

The only positive edge is Over 2.5 goals at 1.91, with a 7.6-point edge over the implied probability. Avoid first-half goals and both teams to score markets due to negative value.

Context

Levski's 4-0 European defeat in Athens and the Sunday schedule change directly affect recovery and selection management.

Levski Sofia sit second in the First League with 15 points from five matches, scoring 15 goals and conceding only two. Botev Plovdiv are sixth with seven points, but their home record shows two wins and a draw from three games.
Levski's league form is flawless, including a 6-0 home win over Spartak Varna on August 22. Botev's home results include a 3-2 win over Spartak Varna and a 1-0 win over Cherno More Varna, showing they can compete at home. The contrast suggests Levski's attack will test Botev's home resilience.
- Levski Sofia have won all five league matches, scoring 15 goals and conceding 2.
- Botev Plovdiv are unbeaten at home with 2 wins and 1 draw, scoring 5 and conceding 3.
- Levski's last league match was a 6-0 home win over Spartak Varna on 2026-08-22.
Levski Sofia enter this match after a 4-0 Champions League playoff defeat at AEK Athens on 26 August, where they used a full starting XI and made six substitutions.
The short interval after an away European match can affect recovery and freshness, and the revised Sunday kickoff gives Levski one extra day to prepare. That additional time reduces but does not remove the need to manage selection carefully, especially for players who started in Athens.
- AEK Athens beat Levski 4-0 on 26 August in the Champions League playoff second leg.
- BTA listed Levski's starting XI and six substitutions in Athens.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 10:22 · Europe/BucharestBulgarian News Agencywww.bta.bg · 26 Aug 2026
The Round 7 match has been moved to Sunday 30 August at 19:00 at Stadion Hristo Botev, as confirmed by both clubs.
The schedule change adds recovery and preparation time for Levski after their midweek European away match. While the extra day helps, the travel and match load from Athens remain relevant to how Levski approach this fixture.
- Botev's 28 August match-day notice lists Sunday at 19:00 at Stadion Hristo Botev.
- Levski's 27 August ticket notice gives the same date, time and venue.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 10:22 · Europe/BucharestBotev Plovdiv official sitebotevplovdiv.bg · 28 Aug 2026Levski Sofia official sitelevski.bg · 27 Aug 2026
Levski Sofia played AEK Athens in the Champions League on August 26, losing 4-0 away. The match was three days before this league fixture.
The heavy defeat and short turnaround may prompt Levski to rotate players, especially with a congested schedule. However, their league form remains strong, so any changes are likely to maintain their competitive edge.
- Levski lost 4-0 to AEK Athens in the Champions League on 2026-08-26.
- The match was three days before this league fixture on 2026-08-29.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Levski Sofia

1.18fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 84.8%

0.0ppshort

Levski's unbeaten league record and H2H dominance make them unlikely to lose, but the odds are so short that the edge is negative.

Match WinnerUncertainty band: Slight lean

Levski Sofia

1.75fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 57.1%

0.0ppshort

Levski's perfect league form and recent H2H dominance are strong, but the odds already reflect that and the European load adds uncertainty.

Both Teams To ScoreUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.78fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 56.2%

0.0ppshort

Botev's home scoring ability and Levski's occasional away defensive lapses make both teams scoring plausible.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.35fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams tend to score early, and the match is likely to have an open start given the attacking intent.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result4 outcomes · top 80%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's perfect league form and recent H2H dominance outweigh Botev's home advantage, though the European playoff load adds some uncertainty.
- Levski have won all 5 league matches this season, scoring 15 and conceding only 2.
- Botev have lost their last 2 league matches, including a 0-1 home defeat to Botev Vratsa.
- Levski have won the last two H2H league meetings, both by clean sheet (3-0 and 1-0).
BetBugs · Match WinnerLevski SofiaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's strong form and H2H record make them unlikely to lose, while Botev's inconsistent results reduce their chances of a win.
- Levski are unbeaten in the league this season (5W 0D 0L).
- Botev have won only 2 of their last 6 league matches.
- Levski have not lost to Botev in the last 3 H2H meetings (2W 1D).
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or Levski SofiaEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The first half is likely to be tight, with both teams capable of scoring but also solid defensively.
- Botev have led at half-time in 53% of matches, but Levski also lead at half-time in 53%.
- In the last H2H meeting, Levski led 1-0 at half-time.
- Both teams have similar first-half goal averages (0.9 vs 0.7).
BetBugs · First Half WinnerDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a Levski win is a plausible scenario given Levski's second-half strength.
- Levski have won 5 of 5 league matches, often scoring in the second half.
- Botev have drawn at half-time in 2 of their last 5 matches.
- Levski's away match this season was level at half-time before they won 2-1.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoubleDraw/Levski SofiaEstimated chance25%

Goals4 outcomes · top 65%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown attacking output, and Botev's home games tend to be open, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Botev's home league matches average 2.7 total goals (5 scored, 3 conceded in 3 games).
- Levski's away league match this season had 3 total goals (2-1 win).
- Levski average 2.1 goals scored per match across all competitions.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Botev's home scoring ability and Levski's occasional defensive lapses on the road make both teams scoring plausible.
- Botev have scored in 2 of their 3 home league matches this season.
- Levski have conceded in 1 of their 2 away matches across all competitions.
- Botev average 1.67 goals scored per home league match.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScoreYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to score early, and the match is likely to have an open start given the attacking intent.
- Botev average 0.9 first-half goals per match overall.
- Levski average 0.7 first-half goals per match overall.
- In Botev's last 5 matches, 4 had at least one first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalsOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring has been consistent but not overwhelming, making this a borderline call.
- Botev's home matches have seen 5 second-half goals in 3 games (1.67 per game).
- Levski's away match had 2 second-half goals.
- Combined second-half scoring averages suggest a moderate chance of over 1.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats2 outcomes · top 50%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Corner data is limited, but both teams' attacking tendencies could lead to a higher corner count.
- Levski average 3.8 corners per match overall.
- Botev's corner data is unavailable, but their attacking style suggests moderate corner counts.
- Levski's recent matches have seen an average of 9.5 total corners (based on limited data).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Botev's high card count and the intensity of the fixture could push total cards over 3.5.
- Botev average 3 yellow cards per match.
- Levski average 1 yellow card per match, but their opponents average 3.
- The derby atmosphere may increase card counts.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Prediction history

Levski Sofia has been highly reliable when projected to win

Levski Sofia has fulfilled 4 of 5 win predictions (80%). The average estimated probability was 55%, with an expected 2.8 fulfilled predictions, so they outperformed expectation. All four wins came with probabilities of 45% or higher, and the only miss was a draw away from home.

Recent evidence for Levski Sofia5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·First League

Levski Sofia3-0