Primeira LigaFull time

Predictions graded

Arouca2Maritimo1

HT 1–1Sat 29 Aug 2026, 14:30 Predictions graded

Predictions7–370%

Edges4–180%

PossPossession 52%–48%ShotsShots 17–12On targetOn target 7–4CornersCorners 2–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 Aug 2026, 18:37 · Europe/Bucharest

The best value is Over 4.5 cards at 6.50 (model 60% vs implied 15.4%), a huge edge.

Over 2.5 goals also offers value at 2.00 (55% vs 50%), but avoid Arouca -1 and first-half Over 0.5 goals as they are overpriced.

Context

Arouca sit 5th in the Primeira Liga with 6 points from 3 matches.
Arouca's home record is perfect so far: they beat Moreirense 4-0 on August 16, 2026. That result shows they can be dangerous at home, but it is only one match, so the sample is small.
- Arouca beat Moreirense 4-0 at home on 2026-08-16.
- Arouca have scored 4 goals and conceded 0 in their only home league match.
Arouca head coach Vasco Seabra addressed the media on 28 August before hosting Marítimo.
Seabra described Marítimo's defensive process as very strong and consolidated, and said Arouca would need patience, emotional control and aggression. That suggests Arouca may build more slowly and avoid forcing play against a compact block, which could lower the number of early high-risk passes and shift their chance creation toward sustained possession.
- At his 28 August press conference, Vasco Seabra described Marítimo's defensive process as very strong and consolidated.
- He said the contest would require patience, emotional control and aggression from Arouca.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 09:54 · Europe/BucharestA Bola — Arouca: Vasco Seabra wants another full-back and wingerwww.abola.pt · 28 Aug 2026
Maritimo sit 4th in the Primeira Liga with 7 points from 3 matches.
Maritimo have won 2 and drawn 1 of their 3 league matches, including a 2-1 away win at Famalicao on August 16, 2026. Their unbeaten start suggests they are in good form, but the season is still young.
- Maritimo beat Famalicao 2-1 away on 2026-08-16.
- Maritimo have 2 wins and 1 draw in their first 3 league matches.
Marítimo's goalkeeper Alfonso Pastor and defenders Igor Julião, Romain Correia, Rafael Fernandes and Paulo Henrique have each played all 270 league minutes this season.
A Bola reports that Mitchell van der Gaag will probably use that same defensive formula at Arouca. Keeping the goalkeeper and back four unchanged supports defensive communication and set-piece organisation, making Marítimo's block harder to disrupt through positional rotations or quick switches.
- A Bola reports that Alfonso Pastor, Igor Julião, Romain Correia, Rafael Fernandes and Paulo Henrique have each played all 270 league minutes.
- The report says Mitchell van der Gaag will probably use that defensive formula again at Arouca.
ReportedSources checked 29 Aug 2026, 09:54 · Europe/BucharestA Bola — Marítimo: Mitchell van der Gaag has an untouchable quintetwww.abola.pt · 28 Aug 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Arouca's strong home form and recent H2H win give them a slight edge, but Maritimo's unbeaten away start keeps confidence medium.
- Arouca home record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses, 4 goals scored, 0 conceded.
- Arouca last 5 league matches: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.
- Maritimo away record this season: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses, 2 goals scored, 1 conceded.
- H2H last meeting: Arouca 1-0 Maritimo (Apr 2023).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAroucaEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Arouca's home advantage and Maritimo's mixed away form make Arouca or Draw a high-probability outcome.
- Arouca home record: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses.
- Maritimo away record: 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses.
- Arouca last 5 home matches across all competitions: 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss.
- Maritimo last 5 away matches across all competitions: 2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonArouca or DrawEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be level at half-time, with high draw percentages, making a first-half draw plausible.
- Arouca half-time results: 17% leading, 8% trailing, 75% drawing.
- Maritimo half-time results: 18% leading, 18% trailing, 64% drawing.
- H2H last meeting half-time: 0-0.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Arouca often improves in the second half at home, but the specific HT/FT combination is less common, hence low confidence.
- Arouca has won after drawing at half-time in 2 of last 5 league matches.
- Maritimo has lost after drawing at half-time in 1 of last 5 league matches.
- Arouca home advantage and second-half scoring ability.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw / AroucaEstimated chance18%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring and conceding rates, and Arouca's home match produced 4 goals, supporting Over 2.5.
- Arouca average goals per match: 1.4, goals conceded: 1.1.
- Maritimo average goals per match: 1.2, goals conceded: 1.2.
- Combined average total goals in matches involving these teams: 2.45.
- Arouca home matches this season: 4 goals in 1 match.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records and occasional defensive lapses, making BTTS likely.
- Arouca scored in 4 of last 5 league matches.
- Maritimo scored in 4 of last 5 league matches.
- Arouca conceded in 3 of last 5 league matches.
- Maritimo conceded in 3 of last 5 league matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a moderate rate of first-half goals, and the combined average suggests a decent chance of at least one goal before the break.
- Arouca first half goals per match: 0.6, first half goals conceded: 0.3.
- Maritimo first half goals per match: 0.5, first half goals conceded: 0.5.
- Arouca led at half-time in 17% of matches, trailed in 8%.
- Maritimo led at half-time in 18% of matches, trailed in 18%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second-half scoring rates are moderate, but the line of 1.5 is close to the average, so confidence is low.
- Arouca second half goals per match: 0.8 (calculated from total minus first half).
- Maritimo second half goals per match: 0.7.
- Combined second half average: 1.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance48%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Corner counts are moderate, and the line of 9.5 is slightly above the combined average, so only a slight lean to Over.
- Arouca average corners per match: 3.6, opponent corners: 5.4 (total 9.0).
- Maritimo average corners per match: 2.8, opponent corners: 4.8 (total 7.6).
- Combined average total corners: 8.3.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have relatively high card counts, and the combined average is above the 4.5 line, supporting Over.
- Arouca average yellow cards per match: 3.1, opponent yellow cards: 1.9 (total 5.0).
- Maritimo average yellow cards per match: 2.1, opponent yellow cards: 2.7 (total 4.8).
- Combined average total cards: 4.9.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 43% leaves no cushion vs our 42% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

W1-0AroucavMaritimoApr 8, 2023PRI

D1-1MaritimovAroucaOct 23, 2022PRI

L0-3AroucavMaritimoFeb 14, 2022PRI

D2-2MaritimovAroucaSep 13, 2021PRI

L3-1MaritimovAroucaMar 19, 2017PRI

2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Primeira Liga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Arouca Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)	3	2	0	1	5-2	6	LWW
4	Maritimo Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)	3	2	1	0	5-3	7	DWW

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Arouca

L0-2FC PortoAug 23PRI

W4-0MoreirenseAug 16PRI

W1-0Vitória SCAug 8PRI

W2-0Lusitânia LourosaAug 1FRI

L0-3Santa ClaraJul 25FRI

D0-0FamalicaoJul 22FRI

D0-0FeirenseJul 18FRI

L1-2Rio AveJul 11FRI

W3-1TondelaMay 16PRI

W3-1GIL VicenteMay 11PRI

D2-2Santa ClaraMay 2PRI

L1-2AlvercaApr 24PRI

W1-0EstrelaApr 19PRI

L0-1SC BragaApr 12PRI

W3-2EstorilApr 6PRI

Maritimo

D2-2Academico ViseuAug 22PRI

W2-1FamalicaoAug 16PRI

W1-0Casa PiaAug 8PRI

D1-1Estrela CalhetaJul 29FRI

D0-0MachicoJul 25FRI

W2-0CamachaJul 22FRI

L1-5LeixoesJul 17FRI

W2-0AVSJul 14FRI

L0-1AcademicaJul 11FRI

L1-3ChavesMay 15SEG

L0-1PenafielMay 9SEG

W3-2LeixoesMay 1SEG

W2-1Benfica BApr 26SEG

L0-1TorreenseApr 18SEG

W1-0PortimonenseApr 12SEG

Squad & Injuries

Arouca

26 available

Attackers8

Midfielders8

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Maritimo

32 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders9

Goalkeeper5

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Arouca or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 4.5

Over 0.5

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Arouca -1

Over 0.5

Under 4.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Arouca

Maritimo

Squad & Injuries

Arouca

Maritimo