Arouca vs Tondela: result, stats and head-to-head

Result2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Arouca's stronger home form and Tondela's poor away record give the hosts a moderate edge, though H2H balance tempers confidence.
- Arouca home record: 6W-4D-6L, 24 goals scored, 29 conceded in 16 home matches this season.
- Tondela away record: 4W-3D-9L, 13 goals scored, 31 conceded in 16 away matches.
- Arouca last 5 home matches: W-D-W-L-W (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss).
- Tondela last 5 away matches: W-D-L-L-D (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonAroucaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Combining Arouca's solid home resilience with Tondela's travel struggles makes a home win or draw highly probable.
- Arouca home record: 10 non-losses in 16 home games (62.5%).
- Tondela away record: 12 non-wins in 16 away games (75%).
- Tondela have only 4 away wins all season.
- Arouca have lost only 6 of 16 home matches.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonArouca or DrawEstimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Low first-half scoring and high draw rates at the break for both sides make a level half-time score the most likely outcome.
- Arouca half-time record: 13% lead, 33% trail, 54% draw in last 15 matches.
- Tondela half-time record: 13% lead, 27% trail, 60% draw in last 15 matches.
- Last 5 H2H: 3 draws at half-time.
- Both teams average under 0.5 first-half goals scored.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A common pattern for Arouca home wins is a level half-time before pulling ahead, but the low base rate keeps confidence low.
- Arouca have won 6 home games, with 4 coming after a drawn first half.
- Tondela have lost 9 away games, with 5 after a drawn first half.
- Both teams have high half-time draw rates (54% and 60%).
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw / AroucaEstimated chance25%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' recent matches and season-long averages point to a slight lean toward goals, supported by Arouca's leaky home defense and Tondela's vulnerability on the road.
- Arouca home matches average 3.3 total goals (24 scored, 29 conceded in 16 games).
- Tondela away matches average 2.75 total goals (13 scored, 31 conceded in 16 games).
- Last 5 Arouca home games: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
- Last 5 Tondela away games: 3 of 5 had over 2.5 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both sides regularly find the net and concede, making BTTS a likely outcome given their defensive frailties.
- Arouca home: both teams scored in 11 of 16 home matches (69%).
- Tondela away: both teams scored in 9 of 16 away matches (56%).
- Arouca have scored in 13 of 16 home games; conceded in 13 of 16.
- Tondela have scored in 9 of 16 away games; conceded in 14 of 16.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams are slow starters with low first-half scoring averages, making a quiet opening 45 minutes probable.
- Arouca average 0.5 first-half goals scored, 0.7 conceded in last 15 matches.
- Tondela average 0.4 first-half goals scored, 0.7 conceded in last 15 matches.
- Arouca led at half-time in only 13% of recent matches; Tondela in 13%.
- Last 5 H2H meetings: 4 had 0 or 1 first-half goal.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to concede and score more after the break, driven by fatigue and tactical adjustments, suggesting a lively second half.
- Arouca home matches: 62% of total goals come in the second half (33 of 53).
- Tondela away matches: 64% of total goals come in the second half (28 of 44).
- Arouca last 5 home games: 4 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Tondela last 5 away games: 3 had over 1.5 second-half goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Corner averages hover around the 9.5 line, but recent trends slightly favor a lower total, though confidence is limited by variability.
- Arouca average 3.3 corners per game; concede 5.5 opponent corners (total 8.8).
- Tondela average 4.1 corners per game; concede 5.9 opponent corners (total 10.0).
- Last 5 Arouca home games: average total corners 8.2.
- Last 5 Tondela away games: average total corners 9.4.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams accumulate cards at a steady rate, and H2H history shows frequent disciplinary action, making over 4.5 cards likely.
- Arouca average 2.8 yellow cards per game; Tondela average 2.6.
- Arouca home matches: 3+ cards in 12 of 16 games.
- Tondela away matches: 3+ cards in 11 of 16 games.
- Last 5 H2H: 4 had over 4.5 total cards.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance60%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
10	Arouca	33	11	6	16	44-63	39	WDLWL
17	Tondela Relegation - Liga Portugal 2	33	6	10	17	26-52	28	WWDLL

Arouca3Tondela1

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Arouca or Draw

Draw

Yes

Over 4.5

Under 1.5

BetBugs probabilities

Result2 of 3 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Arouca

Tondela

Squad & Injuries

Arouca

Tondela