Zalgiris Vilnius2Dziugas Telsiai0

HT 0–0Sun 23 Aug 2026, 16:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–363%

Edges2–340%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 23 Aug 2026, 04:03 · Europe/Bucharest

Žalgiris are overpriced at 1.60 given their 5W-1D-5L home record and a split 2026 H2H with Džiugas.

Avoid the home win, double chance, and over 2.5 goals; the value is thin, and Džiugas' away resilience makes an upset or draw a live possibility.

Context

Žalgiris home record: 5W-1D-5L in A Lyga.
- They have conceded in 9 of 11 home matches.
- Recent home league results include a 2-3 loss to Banga and a 3-1 win over TransINVEST.
Džiugas away record: 4W-5D-2L in A Lyga.
- They have scored in 8 of 11 away matches.
- Recent away results include a 4-3 win at Šiauliai and a 1-1 draw at Panevėžys.
Džiugas won 3-2 in Vilnius on 21 Feb 2026.
- Žalgiris won 3-0 away on 26 Apr 2026.
- The most recent meeting on 28 Jun 2026 ended 0-0.
Žalgiris first-half draw rate: 60%.
- Džiugas first-half draw rate: 60%.
- H2H first-half scores this season: 1-1, 0-0, 0-0.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Zalgiris Vilnius

1.60fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 62.5%

0.0ppshort

The market is pricing Zalgiris as a strong favourite, but their home record is only 5W-1D-5L and the 2026 H2H is split, so the true probability is much lower than implied.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Zalgiris Vilnius or Draw

1.25fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

The double chance is priced as if Zalgiris are near-certain to avoid defeat, but their home form and the split H2H suggest a meaningful away win probability.

Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Over 2.5

1.62fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown the ability to score and concede in recent matches, and Zalgiris Vilnius' home games tend to be high-scoring, making over 2.5 goals a reasonable expectation.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Slight lean

Yes

1.67fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have consistently found the net and conceded in their respective home/away splits, suggesting a high likelihood of both teams scoring.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Lean

Over 0.5

1.25fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a tendency to score in the first half, with combined first half goal averages exceeding 1.0, making over 0.5 first half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Zalgiris Vilnius' stronger recent league form and home advantage give them a slight edge, but Dziugas Telsiai's solid away record and the split H2H this season keep the probability moderate.
- Zalgiris Vilnius home record: 5W-1D-5L, 21 goals scored, 18 conceded in 11 home matches
- Dziugas Telsiai away record: 4W-5D-2L, 16 goals scored, 14 conceded in 11 away matches
- Zalgiris Vilnius last 5 league form: LWWWD (10 points from 15), Dziugas Telsiai last 5 league form: LWDLW (7 points from 15)
- H2H this season: Dziugas won 3-2 away, Zalgiris won 3-0 away, 0-0 draw at Dziugas
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonZalgiris VilniusEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Zalgiris Vilnius' home advantage and recent form make them unlikely to lose, but Dziugas Telsiai's resilience away from home supports a double chance for the hosts.
- Zalgiris Vilnius home record: 5W-1D-5L, 21 goals scored, 18 conceded in 11 home matches
- Dziugas Telsiai away record: 4W-5D-2L, 16 goals scored, 14 conceded in 11 away matches
- Zalgiris Vilnius last 5 league form: LWWWD (10 points from 15), Dziugas Telsiai last 5 league form: LWDLW (7 points from 15)
- H2H this season: Dziugas won 3-2 away, Zalgiris won 3-0 away, 0-0 draw at Dziugas
BetBugs · Double ChancewonZalgiris Vilnius or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a strong tendency to be level at half time, and the recent H2H matches have been goalless or level at the break.
- Zalgiris Vilnius first half results: leading at half time 20%, trailing 20%, drawing 60%
- Dziugas Telsiai first half results: leading at half time 27%, trailing 13%, drawing 60%
- H2H this season: first half scores were 1-1, 0-0, 0-0
- Both teams have high draw rates at half time
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance40%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half time followed by a Zalgiris Vilnius win is a plausible scenario given their second half strength, but the probability is low due to the many possible outcomes.
- Zalgiris Vilnius first half draw rate: 60%, full time home win rate: 45%
- Dziugas Telsiai first half draw rate: 60%, full time away win rate: 36%
- H2H this season: 0-0 draw at half time in two of three matches
- Zalgiris Vilnius often starts slowly but finishes strongly at home
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonDraw/Zalgiris VilniusEstimated chance20%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown the ability to score and concede in recent matches, and Zalgiris Vilnius' home games tend to be high-scoring, making over 2.5 goals a reasonable expectation.
- Zalgiris Vilnius home matches average 3.55 total goals (21 scored + 18 conceded in 11 games)
- Dziugas Telsiai away matches average 2.73 total goals (16 scored + 14 conceded in 11 games)
- Zalgiris Vilnius last 5 league matches: 3, 3, 0, 3, 1 goals scored (avg 2.0), conceded 2, 1, 3, 0, 0 (avg 1.2)
- Dziugas Telsiai last 5 league matches: 0, 4, 1, 0, 1 goals scored (avg 1.2), conceded 2, 3, 1, 1, 0 (avg 1.4)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistently found the net and conceded in their respective home/away splits, suggesting a high likelihood of both teams scoring.
- Zalgiris Vilnius home matches: scored in 9 of 11, conceded in 9 of 11
- Dziugas Telsiai away matches: scored in 8 of 11, conceded in 8 of 11
- Zalgiris Vilnius last 5 league matches: scored in 4, conceded in 3
- Dziugas Telsiai last 5 league matches: scored in 3, conceded in 3
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to score in the first half, with combined first half goal averages exceeding 1.0, making over 0.5 first half goals likely.
- Zalgiris Vilnius first half goals per match: 0.8, first half goals conceded: 0.7
- Dziugas Telsiai first half goals per match: 0.7, first half goals conceded: 0.3
- Zalgiris Vilnius last 5 league matches: first half goals scored 1,0,0,2,0 (avg 0.6), conceded 1,0,1,0,0 (avg 0.4)
- Dziugas Telsiai last 5 league matches: first half goals scored 0,3,0,0,1 (avg 0.8), conceded 0,1,1,0,0 (avg 0.4)
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Second half scoring is plausible given both teams' overall goal rates, but the evidence is less direct, so confidence is low.
- Zalgiris Vilnius second half goals per match: 1.3 (total 2.1 - first half 0.8)
- Dziugas Telsiai second half goals per match: 0.7 (total 1.4 - first half 0.7)
- Zalgiris Vilnius home matches: 21 goals scored, 18 conceded in 11 games, many in second half
- Dziugas Telsiai away matches: 16 goals scored, 14 conceded in 11 games
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Corner data is sparse, but based on typical A Lyga matches and both teams' attacking intent, over 8.5 corners is a speculative but possible outcome.
- Zalgiris Vilnius average corners per match: 3.5 (from limited data)
- Dziugas Telsiai average corners per match: 0 (no data available)
- No reliable corner data for recent matches
- Both teams' playing styles suggest moderate corner counts
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
With limited card data, the estimate is based on typical league averages and the competitive nature of the match, but confidence is low.
- Zalgiris Vilnius average yellow cards per match: 1.5
- Dziugas Telsiai average yellow cards per match: 0 (no data available)
- Zalgiris Vilnius average fouls per match: 12.5
- No reliable card data for Dziugas Telsiai
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%