Major League SoccerFull time

Predictions graded

San Jose Earthquakes1Minnesota United5

HT 1–3Sun 23 Aug 2026, 02:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges4–267%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 08:00 · Europe/Bucharest

San Jose are favored at home but offer no value at 1.95 (model 45% vs implied 51%).

The only positive edge is Over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.10 (model 55% vs implied 47.6%). Avoid the over 2.5 goals and BTTS Yes markets, as they are overpriced relative to our estimates.

Context

San Jose lost 1-3 to St. Louis City at home on 16 August.
- They lost 0-4 to Orlando City at home on 23 July.
- They drew 1-1 with LA Galaxy at home on 26 July.
- Their only home win in the last five was a 5-1 victory over Austin on 23 April.
Minnesota drew 1-1 at Real Salt Lake on 16 August.
- They drew 1-1 at home to San Diego on 2 August, but that was a home match.
- They lost 1-2 at Sporting Kansas City on 23 July.
- They won 3-2 at Columbus Crew on 2 May.
Minnesota won 4-2 at San Jose in the U.S. Open Cup on 29 April 2026.
- Minnesota won 4-1 at home against San Jose in MLS on 13 July 2025.
- San Jose won 1-0 at home in MLS on 9 March 2025.
- The last three meetings have produced 12 total goals.
San Jose are 4th with 33 points, inside the playoff places.
- Minnesota are 9th with 25 points, just outside the playoff cut-line.
- MLS 2026 format sends top seven directly to Round One, with 8th and 9th entering a Wild Card match.
- Both teams have 10 matches remaining, making every point valuable.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

San Jose Earthquakes

1.95fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 51.3%

0.0ppshort

San Jose's superior league position and overall win rate give them a moderate edge, but their poor recent form and Minnesota's resilience in away games temper confidence.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

San Jose Earthquakes or Draw

1.33fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 75.2%

0.0ppshort

San Jose's home advantage and Minnesota's inconsistent away form make a home win or draw likely, though H2H slightly favors Minnesota.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Jose's superior league position and overall win rate give them a moderate edge, but their poor recent form and Minnesota's resilience in away games temper confidence.
- San Jose Earthquakes are 4th in Western Conference with 33 points, while Minnesota United are 9th with 25 points.
- San Jose have won 10 of 19 matches; Minnesota have won 6 of 19.
- San Jose's home record: 4W-2D-4L; Minnesota's away record: 4W-2D-4L.
- San Jose's recent form (last 5): LLDLW; Minnesota's recent form (last 5): DDDLD.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSan Jose EarthquakesEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Jose's home advantage and Minnesota's inconsistent away form make a home win or draw likely, though H2H slightly favors Minnesota.
- San Jose have lost only 4 of 10 home matches this season.
- Minnesota have won only 4 of 10 away matches.
- San Jose's home points per game: 1.4; Minnesota's away points per game: 1.4.
- In last 5 H2H meetings, San Jose won 2, Minnesota won 3.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostSan Jose Earthquakes or DrawEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
San Jose's slight first-half home edge and Minnesota's poor first-half away record give a modest lean, but the low probability reflects uncertainty.
- San Jose led at halftime in 27% of matches; Minnesota led in 20%.
- San Jose's first-half goal difference at home: +0.2 (0.8 scored, 0.6 conceded).
- Minnesota's first-half goal difference away: -0.4 (0.3 scored, 0.7 conceded).
- In last 5 H2H, San Jose led at halftime in 2 matches, Minnesota in 1.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerlostSan Jose EarthquakesEstimated chance35%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at halftime followed by a San Jose win is plausible given San Jose's second-half home strength and Minnesota's away fade, but the specific sequence is uncommon.
- San Jose have drawn at halftime in 33% of matches.
- San Jose have won 40% of home matches.
- Minnesota have drawn at halftime in 40% of away matches.
- Minnesota have lost 40% of away matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / San Jose EarthquakesEstimated chance20%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show high-scoring tendencies, with San Jose's leaky defense and Minnesota's vulnerability on the road supporting over 2.5 goals.
- San Jose average 2.0 goals scored and 2.1 conceded per match overall.
- Minnesota average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match overall.
- San Jose's home matches average 3.2 total goals (18 scored, 14 conceded in 10 games).
- Minnesota's away matches average 3.4 total goals (14 scored, 20 conceded in 10 games).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have consistent scoring records in their respective home/away contexts, and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides make BTTS likely.
- San Jose have scored in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
- Minnesota have scored in 7 of their last 10 away matches.
- San Jose have conceded in 8 of their last 10 home matches.
- Minnesota have conceded in 9 of their last 10 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
San Jose's tendency to score early at home and Minnesota's first-half defensive lapses on the road make a first-half goal probable.
- San Jose average 0.7 first-half goals scored and 1.0 conceded.
- Minnesota average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.7 conceded.
- San Jose have scored in the first half in 6 of their last 10 home matches.
- Minnesota have conceded in the first half in 7 of their last 10 away matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to be more active in the second half, and the match's open nature could lead to multiple goals after the break.
- San Jose average 1.3 second-half goals scored and 1.1 conceded.
- Minnesota average 1.0 second-half goals scored and 0.6 conceded.
- San Jose's home matches have seen 2+ second-half goals in 7 of 10 games.
- Minnesota's away matches have seen 2+ second-half goals in 6 of 10 games.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a moderate number of corners, and their combined averages hover around the 9.5 line, making this a coin-flip prediction.
- San Jose average 6.1 corners per match; Minnesota average 6.4.
- San Jose's home matches average 10.2 total corners (6.1 for, 4.1 against).
- Minnesota's away matches average 11.0 total corners (6.4 for, 4.6 against).
- In last 5 H2H, total corners averaged 9.8.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams produce a decent number of shots on target, and the expected open play could push the total over 8.5, though the margin is slim.
- San Jose average 5.5 shots on target per match; Minnesota average 5.0.
- San Jose's home matches average 10.4 total shots on target (5.5 for, 4.9 against).
- Minnesota's away matches average 9.8 total shots on target (5.0 for, 4.8 against).
- In last 5 H2H, total shots on target averaged 9.2.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 32% leaves no cushion vs our 30% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 4W

W4-2San Jose EarthquakesvMinnesota United FCApr 29, 2026US

L4-1Minnesota United FCvSan Jose EarthquakesJul 13, 2025MAJ

L0-1San Jose EarthquakesvMinnesota United FCMar 9, 2025MAJ

L1-2San Jose EarthquakesvMinnesota United FCSep 1, 2024MAJ

L2-0Minnesota United FCvSan Jose EarthquakesJul 21, 2024MAJ

Minnesota United: 2 clean sheets3.4 goals/game avg

League Table

Major League Soccer 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
4	San Jose Earthquakes Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	19	10	3	6	38-27	33	LLDLW
9	Minnesota United Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)	19	6	7	6	21-26	25	DDDLD

8pt gap between teams

Recent Form

San Jose Earthquakes

L1-3St. Louis CityAug 16MAJ

L2-4FC CincinnatiAug 1MAJ

D1-1Los Angeles GalaxyJul 26MAJ

L0-4Orlando City SCJul 23MAJ

L1-2Club TijuanaJul 4FRI

W3-1Portland TimbersMay 24MAJ

L0-2Colorado RapidsMay 21US

L2-3FC DallasMay 17MAJ

L2-3Seattle SoundersMay 14MAJ

D1-1Vancouver WhitecapsMay 10MAJ

D1-1Toronto FCMay 2MAJ

W4-2Minnesota United FCApr 29US

W3-2St. Louis CityApr 26MAJ

W5-1AustinApr 23MAJ

W4-1Los Angeles FCApr 19MAJ

Minnesota United

D1-1Real Salt LakeAug 16MAJ

W3-1Atlante FCAug 12LEA

L1-2FC JuarezAug 5LEA

D1-1San DiegoAug 2MAJ

D0-0Vancouver WhitecapsJul 26MAJ

L1-2Sporting Kansas CityJul 23MAJ

D1-1Real Salt LakeMay 23MAJ

L1-2New England RevolutionMay 16MAJ

L0-1Colorado RapidsMay 14MAJ

D2-2AustinMay 10MAJ

W3-2Columbus CrewMay 2MAJ

L2-4San Jose EarthquakesApr 29US

L0-1Los Angeles FCApr 25MAJ

W1-0FC DallasApr 23MAJ

W2-0Portland TimbersApr 19MAJ

Squad & Injuries

San Jose Earthquakes

29 available

Attackers7

Midfielders9

Defenders9

Goalkeeper4

Minnesota United

28 available

Attackers8

Midfielders10

Defenders7

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

San Jose Earthquakes

San Jose Earthquakes or Draw

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Result0 of 4 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Over 2.5

Yes

Over 0.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

San Jose Earthquakes

Minnesota United

Squad & Injuries

San Jose Earthquakes

Minnesota United