AllsvenskanFull time

Predictions graded

Hammarby2GAIS Goteborg0

HT 2–0Sun 23 Aug 2026, 14:30 Predictions graded

Predictions5–645%

Edges4–357%

PossPossession 67%–33%ShotsShots 28–9On targetOn target 7–1CornersCorners 8–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 17:12 · Europe/Bucharest

Hammarby are strong at home but GAIS have dominated recent meetings, making the 1.40 home win poor value.

The best betting edge is over 1.5 second-half goals at 2.15 (model 55% vs implied 46.5%). Avoid the over 2.5 goals and Hammarby win markets due to negative value.

Context

GAIS won the last three meetings: 2-0, 2-1, 3-2.
- GAIS have a 10-4 aggregate goal edge in the last seven matches.
- GAIS kept four clean sheets in that sample.
Home record: 7W 1D 1L, 29 scored, 5 conceded.
- They average 3.2 goals per home match.
- They have lost only once at home this season.
Away record: 2W 2D 4L, 9 scored, 12 conceded.
- They have failed to score in two of their last five away matches.
- They have kept only two clean sheets away from home.
Boudri left GAIS for LAFC in winter and joined Hammarby in July.
- His registration was completed in time for Hammarby's European qualifier.
- The 21-year-old faces his former club less than two months after the move.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Hammarby

1.41fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 71%

0.0ppshort

Hammarby's dominant home record (7W 1D 1L) is offset by GAIS's recent H2H edge, making the 1.40 price too short relative to our 55% estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Hammarby or Draw

1.11fair 1.25

BetBugs 80% · Market 90%

−10.0ppshort

Hammarby's 89% home unbeaten rate supports the double chance, but the market has already priced it at 90% implied, leaving no value.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Hammarby

1.79fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 56%

0.0ppshort

Hammarby lead at half-time in 67% of home matches, but the 1.80 odds imply a 56% chance, slightly above our 50% estimate.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Hammarby at half-time / Hammarby at full-time

2.00fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 50%

0.0ppshort

Hammarby have led at half-time and won in 5 of 9 home matches, but the 2.00 odds imply a 50% chance, above our 40% estimate.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's dominant home form and superior league position outweigh GAIS's recent H2H edge, making them favorites.
- Hammarby home record: 7W 1D 1L, 29 goals scored, 5 conceded in 9 home matches
- GAIS away record: 2W 2D 4L, 9 goals scored, 12 conceded in 8 away matches
- Hammarby last 5 form: WWDWW, GAIS last 5 form: LWDLW
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonHammarbyEstimated chance55%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's strong home form and GAIS's poor away record make a home win or draw highly likely.
- Hammarby home record: 7W 1D 1L (89% unbeaten)
- GAIS away record: 2W 2D 4L (50% losing rate)
- Hammarby have lost only once at home this season
BetBugs · Double ChancewonHammarby or DrawEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's tendency to start strongly at home gives them an edge to lead at the break.
- Hammarby lead at half-time in 53% of matches overall, 67% at home
- GAIS trail at half-time in only 13% of matches overall, 25% away
- Hammarby average 1.3 first-half goals at home vs GAIS 0.5 away
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonHammarbyEstimated chance50%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's ability to control home games from the start makes a half-time/full-time double plausible.
- Hammarby have led at half-time and won in 5 of 9 home matches
- GAIS have trailed at half-time and lost in 2 of 8 away matches
- Hammarby's home win probability is 55%
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonHammarby/HammarbyEstimated chance40%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's high-scoring home attack should produce enough goals to push the total over 2.5.
- Hammarby average 1.9 goals per match overall, 3.2 at home
- GAIS average 1.1 goals per match overall, 1.1 away
- Hammarby home matches average 3.8 total goals
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostOver 2.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown consistent scoring ability in their respective home/away splits, making BTTS likely.
- Hammarby have scored in 8 of 9 home matches
- GAIS have scored in 6 of 8 away matches
- GAIS have kept only 2 clean sheets away from home
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's strong first-half home scoring could lead to multiple goals before the break, but GAIS's low first-half output tempers confidence.
- Hammarby average 0.9 first-half goals overall, 1.3 at home
- GAIS average 0.5 first-half goals overall, 0.5 away
- Hammarby lead at half-time in 53% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's sustained attacking pressure in the second half at home should produce over 1.5 goals after the break.
- Hammarby average 1.0 second-half goals at home
- GAIS average 0.6 second-half goals away
- Hammarby home matches average 1.6 second-half goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 1.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's high corner count at home and GAIS's decent corner numbers suggest a total above 9.5 corners.
- Hammarby average 7.2 corners per match overall, 8.0 at home
- GAIS average 6.0 corners per match overall, 5.5 away
- Combined average corners in Hammarby home matches: 13.5
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Hammarby's high volume of shots on target at home should push the total over 8.5.
- Hammarby average 7.2 shots on target per match overall, 8.0 at home
- GAIS average 4.8 shots on target per match overall, 4.5 away
- Combined average shots on target in Hammarby home matches: 12.5
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderlostOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
GAIS's higher card count away from home could push the total over 3.5 cards, but the margin is thin.
- Hammarby average 1.4 yellow cards per match overall, 1.2 at home
- GAIS average 2.2 yellow cards per match overall, 2.0 away
- Combined average cards in Hammarby home matches: 3.2
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 71% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

L2-0GaisvHammarby FFMay 20, 2026ALL

W1-2Hammarby FFvGaisAug 17, 2025ALL

L3-2GaisvHammarby FFJul 13, 2025ALL

D0-0Hammarby FFvGaisAug 26, 2024ALL

D0-0GaisvHammarby FFJul 7, 2024ALL

Hammarby: 2 clean sheetsGAIS Goteborg: 3 clean sheets2 goals/game avg

League Table

Allsvenskan 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
2	Hammarby Qualifying	17	10	3	4	40-15	33	WWDWW
9	GAIS Goteborg	17	6	5	6	21-16	23	LWDLW

10pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Hammarby

W4-0Kalmar FFAug 16ALL

L0-1Raków CzęstochowaAug 13UEF

W3-0BK HackenAug 9ALL

D0-0Raków CzęstochowaAug 6UEF

L1-3AnderlechtJul 30UEF

D1-1IF BrommapojkarnaJul 26ALL

D1-1AnderlechtJul 23UEF

W4-0Degerfors IFJul 19ALL

W2-0Kalmar FFJul 12ALL

W2-1IF ElfsborgJul 5ALL

W4-1BK HackenJun 24FRI

L2-3BK HackenMay 31ALL

L1-2AIK StockholmMay 24ALL

L0-2GaisMay 20ALL

W4-1Malmo FFMay 17ALL

GAIS Goteborg

L0-1Malmo FFAug 16ALL

W2-0HalmstadAug 9ALL

L0-6FC NordsjaellandJul 30UEF

D1-1HalmstadJul 26ALL

W1-0FC NordsjaellandJul 23UEF

L0-2AIK StockholmJul 18ALL

W1-0IF ElfsborgJul 12ALL

D1-1IF BrommapojkarnaJul 6ALL

W2-1ValerengaJun 27FRI

D1-1HalmstadJun 17FRI

W3-0Kalmar FFMay 30ALL

L1-2SiriusMay 24ALL

W2-0Hammarby FFMay 20ALL

D1-1Degerfors IFMay 16ALL

W1-0Vasteras SK FKMay 9ALL

Squad & Injuries

Hammarby

25 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders7

Goalkeeper4

GAIS Goteborg

32 available

Attackers9

Midfielders13

Defenders6

Goalkeeper4

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 1.5

Hammarby

Hammarby or Draw

Hammarby

Hammarby at half-time / Hammarby at full-time

Over 2.5

Yes

Result4 of 4 landed

Goals1 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Hammarby

Hammarby or Draw

Over 2.5

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Hammarby

GAIS Goteborg

Squad & Injuries

Hammarby

GAIS Goteborg