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Predictions graded

Ciudad de Bolivar1Racing de Cordoba1

HT 1–1Sun 23 Aug 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions3–538%

Edges3–443%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 17:27 · Europe/Bucharest

Ciudad de Bolívar's home edge and Racing de Córdoba's awful away record point to a low-scoring match, but the market has already priced in most of that.

The only clear value is Under 0.5 first-half goals at 2.05, where our model gives a 55% chance versus the 48.8% implied by the odds. Avoid the heavily juiced Under 2.5 and home/draw double chance markets.

Context

Home record: 3W-5D-4L, 11 goals scored, 13 conceded.
- Recent home results include a 0-2 loss to Atletico Mitre and a 0-0 draw with All Boys.
- They have failed to score in 5 of their last 15 matches overall.
Away record: 1W-3D-8L, 6 goals scored, 18 conceded.
- They have lost their last two away matches without scoring (0-2 vs Almirante Brown, 0-1 vs Atletico Mitre).
- Only 6 goals in 12 away games shows a clear scoring problem on the road.
Ciudad de Bolívar average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Racing de Córdoba average 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Both teams led at half-time in only 20% of their matches.
Only H2H: Racing de Córdoba 0-2 Ciudad de Bolívar on 2026-04-05.
- Bolívar kept a clean sheet in that match.
- Single match sample limits the predictive value.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 6

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerlostUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Ciudad de Bolivar

2.50fair 2.63

BetBugs 38% · Market 40%

0.0ppshort

Racing de Cordoba have just 1 win in 12 away matches and lost the only H2H 0-2, but the home side's own inconsistency limits the edge.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Ciudad de Bolivar or Draw

1.33fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 75%

0.0ppshort

The market heavily favours the home/draw double chance, but our estimate is lower, suggesting no value at these odds.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Slight lean

Draw

1.78fair 1.82

BetBugs 55% · Market 56%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have low first-half scoring rates and high draw percentages at half-time, but the odds are close to fair.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.35fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 74.1%

0.0ppshort

Both teams average under 1.0 goals per match and their home/away splits show 2.0 total goals per game, supporting a low-scoring contest.

Both Teams To ScorelostUncertainty band: Lean

No

1.50fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 66.7%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have failed to score in a third of recent matches and the only H2H ended with a clean sheet for Ciudad de Bolivar.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderlostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.13fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 88.5%

0.0ppshort

Combined second-half goal average is approximately 1.0 per match, suggesting at least one goal after half-time.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Ciudad de Bolivar's superior home form and Racing de Cordoba's poor away record, combined with the H2H win, give the home side a moderate edge.
- Ciudad de Bolivar home record: 3W-5D-4L, 11 goals scored, 13 conceded in 12 home matches.
- Racing de Cordoba away record: 1W-3D-8L, 6 goals scored, 18 conceded in 12 away matches.
- Ciudad de Bolivar won the only H2H meeting 2-0 away on 2026-04-05.
- Ciudad de Bolivar recent form: LLLWD (last 5), Racing de Cordoba recent form: DWLWL (last 5).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostCiudad de BolivarEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Ciudad de Bolivar's home advantage and Racing de Cordoba's away struggles make a home win or draw likely.
- Ciudad de Bolivar home record: 3W-5D-4L, 11 goals scored, 13 conceded in 12 home matches.
- Racing de Cordoba away record: 1W-3D-8L, 6 goals scored, 18 conceded in 12 away matches.
- Ciudad de Bolivar won the only H2H meeting 2-0 away on 2026-04-05.
- Ciudad de Bolivar recent form: LLLWD (last 5), Racing de Cordoba recent form: DWLWL (last 5).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCiudad de Bolivar or DrawEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring and high draw rates at half-time.
- Ciudad de Bolivar led at half-time in only 20% of matches, trailed in 13%.
- Racing de Cordoba led at half-time in 20% of matches, trailed in 27%.
- Ciudad de Bolivar first-half goals: 0.5 scored, 0.5 conceded.
- Racing de Cordoba first-half goals: 0.3 scored, 0.5 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by a home win is plausible given Ciudad de Bolivar's home edge and Racing's away weakness.
- Ciudad de Bolivar home record: 3W-5D-4L, 11 goals scored, 13 conceded in 12 home matches.
- Racing de Cordoba away record: 1W-3D-8L, 6 goals scored, 18 conceded in 12 away matches.
- Ciudad de Bolivar won the only H2H meeting 2-0 away on 2026-04-05.
- Ciudad de Bolivar recent form: LLLWD (last 5), Racing de Cordoba recent form: DWLWL (last 5).
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw / Ciudad de BolivarEstimated chance15%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low scoring averages and their home/away splits suggest a low-scoring match.
- Ciudad de Bolivar averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match overall.
- Racing de Cordoba averages 0.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match overall.
- Ciudad de Bolivar home matches average 2.0 total goals (11 scored, 13 conceded in 12).
- Racing de Cordoba away matches average 2.0 total goals (6 scored, 18 conceded in 12).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have struggled to score consistently, and the H2H clean sheet supports at least one team failing to score.
- Ciudad de Bolivar kept a clean sheet in the only H2H meeting (2-0 win).
- Racing de Cordoba failed to score in 5 of their last 15 matches.
- Ciudad de Bolivar failed to score in 5 of their last 15 matches.
- Racing de Cordoba away record: only 6 goals in 12 away matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, making a goalless first half likely.
- Ciudad de Bolivar averages 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Racing de Cordoba averages 0.3 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- Ciudad de Bolivar led at half-time in only 20% of matches, trailed in 13%.
- Racing de Cordoba led at half-time in 20% of matches, trailed in 27%.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The second half is likely to see at least one goal given the teams' scoring patterns.
- Ciudad de Bolivar averages 0.9 goals per match overall, with 0.5 in first half, implying 0.4 in second half.
- Racing de Cordoba averages 0.9 goals per match overall, with 0.3 in first half, implying 0.6 in second half.
- Combined second-half goal average is approximately 1.0 per match.
- Both teams tend to score more in second halves based on first-half vs total averages.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalflostOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given the lack of corner data, we estimate a low corner count based on the teams' low attacking output.
- Corner data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Both teams have low possession and shots averages (0 in provided data).
- Low-scoring matches often correlate with fewer corners.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With no card data, we assume a low card count based on the teams' low foul averages.
- Card data is unavailable for both teams in recent matches.
- Both teams have low foul averages (0 in provided data).
- No red cards recorded for either team in recent matches.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableUnder 3.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 34% vs our estimate 30% leaves no value; away form is poor.

Prediction history

Ciudad de Bolivar has struggled to fulfil Under 2.5 projections

Ciudad de Bolivar has fulfilled 2 of 7 Under 2.5 predictions. The average estimated probability was 71.4%, but only 29% of predictions matched. The current prediction of 62% is below the historical range of 65-80%, suggesting lower confidence than past projections.

Recent evidence for Ciudad de Bolivar7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

25 Jul·Primera Nacional