Levski Sofia6Spartak Varna0

HT 2–0Sat 22 Aug 2026, 18:15 Predictions graded

Predictions7–188%

Edges5–183%

Yellow CardsYellow Cards 0–1Red CardsRed Cards 0–1

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 Aug 2026, 23:47 · Europe/Bucharest

Levski Sofia are strong favourites at home, but the odds offer no value on the win or double chance.

The only positive edge is Both Teams to Score – Yes (model 55% vs implied 44.4%), though Levski’s solid defence and possible rotation make it a risky bet. Wait for confirmed line-ups before wagering.

Context

Velázquez said on 18 August that Levski were competing every three days during Champions League qualifying.
- Levski used a postponement to recover from the long trip to Kazakhstan.
- The European tie immediately before this fixture increases the chance of rotation.
Lost 3-2 at Botev Plovdiv on 10 August.
- Lost 1-0 at Septemvri Sofia on 14 May.
- Won only 1 of their last 5 away matches in all competitions.
Levski have conceded 2 goals in 4 league matches this season.
- They kept clean sheets against Lokomotiv Plovdiv, Septemvri Sofia, and Kairat Almaty at home.
- Home goals conceded average is 0.4 per match.
Levski won 2-0 at home on 21 February 2025.
- Levski won 2-1 at home on 10 August 2025.
- Spartak Varna have not won at Levski in the last three meetings.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Levski Sofia

1.18fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

Levski's perfect league start and strong home form are already heavily priced in; the odds offer no value relative to our estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Levski Sofia or Draw

1.03fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 97.1%

−9.1ppshort

Levski's strong home form makes a loss unlikely, but the odds are so short that there is no value even with our high estimate.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Levski Sofia at half-time / Levski Sofia at full-time

1.62fair 2.00

BetBugs 50% · Market 61.7%

0.0ppshort

Levski's strong first-half record supports the HT/FT double, but the odds are shorter than our estimate suggests.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.55fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 64.5%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have shown attacking output, and Levski's home games often feature multiple goals, supporting over 2.5 goals.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.43

BetBugs 70% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Levski's tendency to score early and their high first-half goal average make over 0.5 first-half goals likely.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's perfect league start and strong home form, combined with Spartak's inconsistent away record, make a home win the most likely outcome.
- Levski Sofia have won all 4 league matches this season, scoring 9 and conceding 2.
- Levski Sofia are unbeaten in their last 5 home matches across all competitions (4W, 1D).
- Spartak Varna have lost 2 of their last 3 away league matches.
- Levski Sofia won the most recent H2H meeting 2-0 at home in February 2025.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonLevski SofiaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's strong home form and Spartak's poor away record make a Levski win or draw highly probable.
- Levski Sofia have not lost at home in their last 5 matches across all competitions.
- Spartak Varna have only won 1 of their last 5 away matches in all competitions.
- Levski Sofia have a 100% home win rate in the league this season (3/3).
BetBugs · Double ChancewonLevski Sofia or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's strong first-half performances and Spartak's occasional slow starts give Levski an edge at the break.
- Levski Sofia have led at half-time in 60% of their last 15 matches.
- Spartak Varna have trailed at half-time in 27% of their last 15 matches.
- Levski Sofia scored in the first half in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonLevski SofiaEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Levski's ability to control matches from the first half makes a HT/FT double of Levski/Levski a reasonable prediction.
- Levski Sofia have led at half-time and won the match in 4 of their last 5 home matches.
- Spartak Varna have lost after trailing at half-time in 2 of their last 3 away matches.
- Levski Sofia have a strong home record this season.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonLevski Sofia/Levski SofiaEstimated chance50%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have shown attacking output, and Levski's home games often feature multiple goals, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Levski Sofia average 2.3 goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- Spartak Varna average 1.7 goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- Levski Sofia have scored 9 goals in 4 league matches this season.
- Spartak Varna have seen over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Spartak's consistent scoring and Levski's occasional defensive lapses make both teams scoring a plausible outcome.
- Spartak Varna have scored in 4 of their last 5 matches.
- Levski Sofia have conceded in 2 of their last 5 home matches.
- Spartak Varna average 1.7 goals per match in their last 15 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Levski's tendency to score early and their high first-half goal average make over 0.5 first-half goals likely.
- Levski Sofia average 1.1 first-half goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- Spartak Varna average 0.7 first-half goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- Levski Sofia have led at half-time in 60% of their recent matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The second half could see more goals as both teams push, but the evidence is not strong enough for high confidence.
- Levski Sofia average 1.2 second-half goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- Spartak Varna average 1.0 second-half goals per match in their last 15 matches.
- Both teams have shown ability to score late in matches.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance50%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams generate a decent number of corners, suggesting a total over 9.5 corners is possible.
- Levski Sofia average 5.5 corners per match in their last 15 matches.
- Spartak Varna average 6 corners per match in their last 15 matches.
- Combined average corners per match is 11.5.
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Levski's corner average and Spartak's tendency to concede corners make over 5.5 home corners a borderline call.
- Levski Sofia average 5.5 corners per match in their last 15 matches.
- Levski Sofia have had 7 corners in one of their recent home matches.
- Spartak Varna concede an average of 7 corners per away match.
BetBugs · Home Cornersnot gradableLevski Sofia over 5.5Estimated chance50%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots on target average slightly exceeds 8.5, making over 8.5 a plausible outcome.
- Levski Sofia average 3 shots on target per match in their last 15 matches.
- Spartak Varna average 6 shots on target per match in their last 15 matches.
- Combined average shots on target is 9 per match.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined average of 4 yellow cards per match suggests over 3.5 cards is a reasonable expectation.
- Levski Sofia average 2 yellow cards per match in their last 15 matches.
- Spartak Varna average 2 yellow cards per match in their last 15 matches.
- Combined average yellow cards is 4 per match.
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%