CA Patronato3Gimnasia y Esgrima Jujuy3

HT 1–1Sat 22 Aug 2026, 18:30 Predictions graded

Predictions4–450%

Edges4–357%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 19 Aug 2026, 04:17 · Europe/Bucharest

A draw is the most likely outcome (36% vs 33% implied), offering a small edge at 3.00.

The first-half draw at 2.00 also holds value (55% vs 50% implied). Avoid the double chance, over 2.5 goals, and second-half over 0.5 markets, which are overpriced relative to our model.

Context

Latest table (2 Aug) has Patronato 16th on 23 points, same as Agropecuario in relegation spot but worse goal difference.
- Patronato have drawn 12 of 24 league matches, showing they are hard to beat but often settle for draws.
- Home record of 3W 5D 3L means they are unbeaten in 73% of home games.
On 2 Aug, Gimnasia led Zona B with 41 points from 22 matches, four clear of Temperley.
- Away record: 3W 3D 6L, with three draws in last five away matches.
- Recent away form includes losses to Quilmes and Colegiales, showing vulnerability on the road.
Patronato home record: 3W 5D 3L.
- Last 5 matches: LDDLD (3 draws).
- Home matches average 2.09 total goals, with 12 scored and 11 conceded in 11 games.
April 2026: Gimnasia Jujuy 2-0 Patronato (home win).
- August 2024: Patronato 1-0 Gimnasia Jujuy (home win).
- March 2024: Gimnasia Jujuy 1-1 Patronato (draw).

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Patronato's extremely high draw rate and Gimnasia's mediocre away form make a stalemate the most likely single outcome, supported by the H2H pattern of home dominance.
- Patronato have drawn 12 of 24 league matches this season (50%).
- Patronato's last 5 matches: LDDLD (3 draws).
- Gimnasia Jujuy away record: 3W 3D 6L, with 3 draws in last 5 away matches.
- H2H last 3 meetings: 2 home wins and 1 draw, no away win.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance36%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Patronato's home resilience and Gimnasia's away struggles, combined with the H2H lack of away wins, make the home side avoiding defeat a solid probability.
- Patronato home record: 3W 5D 3L (73% unbeaten).
- Gimnasia Jujuy away record: 3W 3D 6L (50% losses).
- H2H: Gimnasia have not won away in last 3 meetings.
BetBugs · Double ChancewonCA Patronato or DrawEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The low first-half scoring rates and moderate halftime leads suggest a draw at halftime is the most likely outcome.
- Patronato leading at halftime in 47% of matches, trailing in 13%.
- Gimnasia leading at halftime in 20% of matches, trailing in 27%.
- Both teams have low first-half scoring, increasing chance of a level score at the break.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Given Patronato's high draw tendency and the likelihood of a low-scoring first half, a draw at both halftime and fulltime is a plausible but lower-probability outcome.
- Patronato have drawn 50% of matches overall.
- Patronato's last 5 matches: 3 draws, including 0-0 and 1-1 scorelines.
- Gimnasia away draws: 3 in 12 matches.
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublelostDraw/DrawEstimated chance22%

Goals1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates, and Patronato's home games tend to be low-scoring, making under 2.5 goals the more probable outcome.
- Patronato average 0.9 goals scored and 1.1 conceded per match.
- Gimnasia Jujuy average 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match.
- Patronato home matches: 12 goals for, 11 against in 11 games (2.09 total per game).
- Gimnasia away matches: 11 goals for, 20 against in 12 games (2.58 total per game).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H trend of low-scoring games with clean sheets and both teams' occasional scoring droughts support a 'No' for both teams scoring.
- Patronato failed to score in 6 of 24 league matches (25%).
- Gimnasia Jujuy failed to score in 5 of 25 league matches (20%).
- H2H last 3 meetings: 2-0, 1-0, 1-1 (two clean sheets).
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have low first-half scoring rates, with combined first-half goals averaging around 1.0, making under 1.5 first-half goals highly likely.
- Patronato average 0.7 first-half goals per match.
- Gimnasia Jujuy average 0.3 first-half goals per match.
- Patronato first-half goals conceded average 0.3.
- Gimnasia first-half goals conceded average 0.4.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 1.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The majority of goals in these teams' matches tend to come after halftime, making over 0.5 second-half goals a strong probability.
- Patronato average 0.9 total goals per match, with 0.7 in first half, implying 0.2 in second half.
- Gimnasia average 1.2 total goals per match, with 0.3 in first half, implying 0.9 in second half.
- Combined second-half average: approximately 1.1 goals.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 0.5Estimated chance70%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Without concrete corner stats, we rely on the low attacking output implied by the data, suggesting a lower corner count, but confidence is low due to missing information.
- No corner data available for either team in recent matches.
- Both teams have low possession and shot numbers (averages near zero in provided data).
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given the absence of card statistics, we assume a typical low-card match, but this is a low-confidence prediction due to missing data.
- No card data available for either team in recent matches.
- Both teams average 0 yellow cards and 0 red cards in the provided data (likely missing).
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableUnder 4.5Estimated chance60%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 74% leaves no cushion vs our 62% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

CA Patronato has been highly reliable when projected to Under 2.5 goals

CA Patronato has fulfilled 6 of 7 Under 2.5 goals predictions, a strong 86% fulfilment rate. The average estimated probability was 72%, with 5 expected fulfilled predictions, so the team has outperformed expectations. The current prediction of 58% is below the historical range of 65-75%, suggesting a lower confidence level than past projections.

Recent evidence for CA Patronato7 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

1 Aug·Primera Nacional