Yes
Market 52.4% · BetBugs 62%
Both teams consistently score and concede, with IK Franke scoring in 13 of 15 and Ljungskile in 12 of 15.
Svenska CupenFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
Ljungskile are heavy favourites due to the league gap, but the market overprices them (1.30 vs 55% model probability).
The best value is Both Teams to Score at 1.91, with a 62% model probability against a 52.4% implied chance. Avoid the match winner, double chance, and first-half goals markets, which all carry negative edges.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 1
Market 52.4% · BetBugs 62%
Both teams consistently score and concede, with IK Franke scoring in 13 of 15 and Ljungskile in 12 of 15.
Other edges · 4
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
LjungskileBetBugs 55% · Market 76.9%
The predictor's 55% estimate is below the market's 77% implied probability, so no value exists despite the league gap.
BetBugs 80% · Market 94.3%
The market's 94% implied probability exceeds the predictor's 80% estimate, leaving no value despite high confidence.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 77% leaves no cushion vs our 55% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

