SD Aucas or Draw
Market 71.4% · BetBugs 72%
SD Aucas are strong at home and LDU Quito have been inconsistent away, making a home win or draw highly likely.
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Predictions gradedPre-match view
Expect a tight, low-scoring Quito derby: under 2.5 goals and at least one team failing to score are the most probable outcomes, but the market offers little value.
The only small edge is on both teams to score: No at 1.88 (+1.8pts), while the double chance for Aucas or draw is marginal and the match winner market is best avoided.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 2
Market 71.4% · BetBugs 72%
SD Aucas are strong at home and LDU Quito have been inconsistent away, making a home win or draw highly likely.
Market 53.2% · BetBugs 55%
Recent H2H and defensive records suggest at least one team is likely to fail to score, with LDU Quito conceding only 0.8 goals per match.
Other edges · 2
The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.
BetBugs 58% · Market 59.9%
Both teams average under 1.5 goals per match and two of the last three H2Hs finished under 2.5, supporting a low-scoring derby.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 40% vs our 42% estimate leaves only a 2-point edge, below the 5-point threshold for MEDIUM confidence.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | SD AucasPlay-offs | 24 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 29-25 | 41 |
| 6 | LDU QuitoPlay-offs | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 23-20 | 35 |

