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Predictions graded

Orense SC2SD Aucas1

HT 1–1Thu 23 Jul 2026, 21:30 Predictions graded

Predictions1–811%

Edges0–30%

PossPossession 58%–42%ShotsShots 10–9On targetOn target 7–3CornersCorners 6–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 21 Jul 2026, 07:04 · Europe/Bucharest

SD Aucas are in much stronger form and should avoid defeat against a struggling Orense side, making Draw or SD Aucas at 1.48 the top value bet with a +4pt edge.

Orense's strong recent home H2H is a risk, but their current poor run (0W-1D-4L) makes a home win unlikely. Avoid the Match Winner and 1st Half markets, where odds offer little to no value.

Context

Orense last 5: 0W-1D-4L, 2 goals scored, 9 conceded.
- They failed to score in three of those five matches.
- At home, they have lost three of their last five, including a 2-0 defeat to Emelec.
Aucas last 5: 3W-1D-1L, 5 goals scored, 3 conceded.
- They kept clean sheets in three of those five matches.
- Away from home, they have lost only twice in 10 league games this season.
Orense are unbeaten in 5 of the last 6 home H2H matches vs Aucas.
- They won the last two home meetings 2-1 and 4-0.
- Aucas have not won in Machala since 2020.
Antuña was dismissed on 6 March 2026 after a Copa Sudamericana loss.
- The club used interim staff for the next league match.
- Orense have won only 3 of 12 league matches since the change.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 2

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

1 St Half Resultnot gradableUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Draw

2.04fair 2.08

BetBugs 48% · Market 49%

0.0ppshort

Both teams have a high frequency of drawing at half-time (Orense 46%, Aucas 53%) with similar first-half scoring and conceding rates.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
SD Aucas are in much stronger form and higher in the table, giving them a clear edge despite Orense's recent home H2H success.
- SD Aucas rank 2nd with 35 points from 20 matches, while Orense SC are 13th with 23 points.
- SD Aucas away record: 4W-4D-2L, goals 9:9; Orense home record: 3W-3D-4L, goals 12:13.
- Orense SC last 5 matches: 0W-1D-4L, scoring 2 and conceding 9.
- SD Aucas last 5 matches: 3W-1D-1L, scoring 5 and conceding 3.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSD AucasEstimated chance42%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Orense's poor form and SD Aucas's consistency, the visitors are unlikely to lose, making Draw or SD Aucas a high-probability outcome.
- Orense SC have lost 4 of their last 5 matches, with only 1 draw.
- SD Aucas have lost only 1 of their last 5, winning 3.
- Orense home record shows 4 losses in 10 games; SD Aucas away record shows only 2 losses in 10.
- H2H last 5: SD Aucas won 3, Orense won 2 (both at home), but Orense's current form is poor.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or SD AucasEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a high frequency of drawing at half-time, with similar first-half scoring and conceding rates, making a draw the most likely half-time result.
- Orense SC lead at half-time in only 27% of matches, trail in 27%, and draw in 46%.
- SD Aucas lead at half-time in 27%, trail in 20%, and draw in 53%.
- Orense SC average 0.5 first-half goals scored and conceded.
- SD Aucas average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonDrawEstimated chance48%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
SD Aucas's superior form and Orense's defensive frailties late in games suggest the visitors could win the second half, though evidence is indirect.
- SD Aucas have a better overall form and are likely to push for a win in the second half.
- Orense SC have conceded 9 goals in their last 5 matches, many in the second half.
- SD Aucas have scored 5 goals in their last 5 matches, with a tendency to score after half-time.
- No direct second-half stats available, but form suggests SD Aucas edge.
BetBugs · Second Half Winnernot gradableSD AucasEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
A draw at half-time followed by an SD Aucas win is plausible given both teams' half-time patterns and SD Aucas's stronger second-half performance in recent matches.
- Orense SC draw at half-time in 46% of matches; SD Aucas draw at half-time in 53%.
- SD Aucas have won 3 of their last 5 matches, often after a level first half.
- Orense SC have lost 4 of their last 5, with second-half collapses common.
- H2H: In the last meeting, Aucas won 3-2 after a 1-1 half-time.
BetBugs · Ht Ft Doublenot gradableDraw/SD AucasEstimated chance28%

Goals0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams have moderate scoring rates, and SD Aucas's strong defense (0.7 conceded per game) suggests a low-scoring affair, especially away from home.
- Orense SC average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per match over last 15.
- SD Aucas average 1.2 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per match over last 15.
- Orense home matches: 12 goals for, 13 against in 10 games (2.5 total average).
- SD Aucas away matches: 9 goals for, 9 against in 10 games (1.8 total average).
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderlostUnder 2.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
SD Aucas's defensive solidity and Orense's recent scoring struggles make it likely that at least one team fails to score.
- SD Aucas have kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 away matches.
- Orense SC have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- SD Aucas concede only 0.7 goals per game on average over last 15.
- Orense SC average 1.0 goals scored per game, but only 0.4 in last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorelostNoEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
SD Aucas's strong defensive record and Orense's poor attacking form give a reasonable chance of an away clean sheet, though Orense's home H2H history tempers confidence.
- SD Aucas have kept clean sheets in 5 of their last 10 away matches.
- Orense SC have failed to score in 3 of their last 5 matches.
- SD Aucas concede only 0.7 goals per game on average.
- Orense SC average only 1.0 goals per game at home.
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostOrense SC not to scoreEstimated chance38%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams tend to start slowly, with low first-half scoring averages and a high rate of 0-0 at the break, supporting under 0.5 first-half goals.
- Orense SC average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.5 conceded.
- SD Aucas average 0.5 first-half goals scored and 0.4 conceded.
- Orense SC have been level at half-time in 46% of matches.
- SD Aucas have been level at half-time in 53% of matches.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalslostUnder 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance52%

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combined corner averages are close to the 9.5 line, and with both teams likely to attack, there is a reasonable chance of exceeding it, though confidence is low due to limited corner data.
- Orense SC average 3.9 corners per match; SD Aucas average 5.5 corners per match.
- Combined average corners: 9.4 per match.
- SD Aucas away matches average 5.5 corners for and 4.5 against (estimated from data).
- Orense home matches average 3.9 corners for and 4.5 against (estimated from data).
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderlostOver 9.5Estimated chance45%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Both teams have a tendency to accumulate cards, with a combined average above 4.5, making over 4.5 cards a plausible outcome.
- Orense SC average 2.8 yellow cards and 0.4 red cards per match.
- SD Aucas average 2.3 yellow cards and 0.4 red cards per match.
- Combined average cards: 5.9 per match.
- Orense SC have received 6 yellow cards in a recent home match, indicating high card potential.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderlostOver 4.5Estimated chance48%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 3 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

2W · 1D · 2W

L3-2AucasvOrense SCMar 24, 2026LIG

D0-0AucasvOrense SCSep 21, 2025LIG

W2-1Orense SCvAucasMay 25, 2025LIG

W4-0Orense SCvAucasAug 3, 2024LIG

L2-0AucasvOrense SCMar 2, 2024LIG

Orense SC: 2 clean sheetsSD Aucas: 2 clean sheets2.8 goals/game avg

League Table

Liga Pro 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
13	Orense SC Relegation Playoffs	20	6	5	9	23-28	23	LLDLL
2	SD Aucas Play-offs	20	10	5	5	22-19	35	WLWWD

12pt gap between teamsOrense SC in relegation zone

Recent Form

Orense SC

L1-2Mushuc Runa SCJul 20LIG

L0-2EmelecJul 17LIG

D0-0Manta FCJul 11LIG

L1-2Tecnico UniversitarioJul 7LIG

L0-3LDU de QuitoJul 1LIG

L1-2CuniburoMay 27COP

L1-2Universidad CatolicaMay 23LIG

W1-0Guayaquil City FCMay 19LIG

W2-0Leones del NorteMay 9LIG

W2-1MacaraMay 3LIG

D1-1Barcelona SCApr 26LIG

W3-1Deportivo CuencaApr 22LIG

D0-0Delfin SCApr 19LIG

W2-1LibertadApr 12LIG

L0-2Independiente del ValleApr 4LIG

SD Aucas

W1-0Tecnico UniversitarioJul 19LIG

L0-3Independiente del ValleJul 16LIG

W1-0Deportivo CuencaJul 12LIG

W1-0Guayaquil City FCJul 8LIG

D0-0Mushuc Runa SCMay 31LIG

W3-1Manta FCMay 26LIG

W3-0San AntonioMay 21COP

L0-3Barcelona SCMay 17LIG

W2-1Universidad CatolicaMay 9LIG

L2-3LibertadMay 2LIG

W1-0Delfin SCApr 28LIG

D0-0LDU de QuitoApr 23LIG

W1-0Leones del NorteApr 17LIG

W2-0EmelecApr 12LIG

W1-0MacaraApr 5LIG

Squad & Injuries

Orense SC

32 available

Attackers6

Midfielders14

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

SD Aucas

25 available

Attackers5

Midfielders9

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Draw or SD Aucas

No

Draw

Under 2.5

Result1 of 3 landed

Goals0 of 4 landed

Match stats0 of 2 landed

Markets to Avoid

Draw or SD Aucas

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Orense SC

SD Aucas

Squad & Injuries

Orense SC

SD Aucas