USL League OneFull time

Predictions graded

Union Omaha5Richmond Kickers1

HT 3–1Sun 16 Aug 2026, 23:00 Predictions graded

Predictions9–190%

Edges9–0100%

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 16 Aug 2026, 07:15 · Europe/Bucharest

Union Omaha are strong favourites at home, but the odds offer no value on the win or double chance.

The best betting edge is 'Richmond clean sheet: No' at 1.60, with an 85% estimated probability versus the 62.5% implied by the market.

Context

Darren Sawatzky left on 15 June after Sporting Cascades triggered his buyout clause.
- Brian Ownby was appointed interim head coach for the rest of the 2026 USL1 season.
- Richmond have won two of their last three league matches under Ownby, but also lost heavily to Charlotte and Forward Madison.
Richmond won 4-3 in Omaha on 25 June 2025.
- Richmond won 1-0 at home on 9 April 2025.
- The overall H2H was level at 5 wins each and 4 draws before this season.
Union Omaha home record: 7W-2D-0L, 19 goals for, 9 against.
- Omaha have kept only 3 clean sheets in 9 home matches.
- Richmond have scored in 6 of 10 away matches this season.
Richmond away record: 1W-1D-8L, 8 goals for, 25 against.
- Richmond have conceded in 9 of 10 away matches.
- Omaha have scored in 8 of 9 home matches.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 7

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Union Omaha

1.29fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Union Omaha are unbeaten at home this season (7W-2D) while Richmond have lost 8 of 10 away, but the odds imply a 77.5% chance which is above our 68% estimate.

Double ChancewonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Union Omaha or Draw

1.08fair 1.14

BetBugs 88% · Market 92.6%

−4.6ppshort

Union Omaha are unbeaten at home and Richmond struggle away, but the odds already price this at 92.6% implied, above our 88% estimate.

1 St Half ResultwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Union Omaha

1.67fair 2.22

BetBugs 45% · Market 59.9%

0.0ppshort

Richmond trail at halftime in 47% of matches and Union Omaha average more first-half goals, but the odds imply a 59.9% chance versus our 45% estimate.

HT/FTwonUncertainty band: Near coin-flip

Union Omaha at half-time / Union Omaha at full-time

1.83fair 2.50

BetBugs 40% · Market 54.6%

0.0ppshort

Union Omaha's strong home form and Richmond's away struggles support a home win, but the odds imply a 54.6% chance versus our 40% estimate.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.40fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 71.4%

0.0ppshort

Both teams' home/away splits show high-scoring tendencies, and the recent H2H produced a seven-goal thriller, supporting over 2.5 goals.

1 St Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Over 0.5

1.22fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 82%

0.0ppshort

Richmond's tendency to trail at halftime and Union Omaha's first-half scoring suggest at least one goal in the first half is likely.

2 Nd Half Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 1.5

1.65fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 60.6%

0.0ppshort

Both teams score more in the second half, and the combined average exceeds 1.5 goals, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result4 of 4 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha's dominant home form and Richmond's poor away record, combined with the 23-point gap in the standings, make a home win highly likely.
- Union Omaha home record: 7W-2D-0L, 19 goals for, 9 against in 9 matches
- Richmond away record: 1W-1D-8L, 8 goals for, 25 against in 10 matches
- Union Omaha overall: 13W-2D-5L, 41 points, 1st place
- Richmond overall: 5W-3D-11L, 18 points, 16th place
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonUnion OmahaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Union Omaha's unbeaten home record and Richmond's away struggles, the home side avoiding defeat is strongly supported.
- Union Omaha unbeaten at home this season (7W-2D)
- Richmond have lost 8 of 10 away matches
- Union Omaha have only lost 5 of 20 matches overall
BetBugs · Double ChancewonUnion Omaha or DrawEstimated chance88%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Richmond's high rate of trailing at halftime and Union Omaha's superior first-half scoring give the home side an edge, though draws are common.
- Union Omaha lead at halftime in 13% of matches, trail in 27%
- Richmond lead at halftime in 20%, trail in 47%
- Union Omaha average 0.6 first-half goals vs Richmond's 0.3
BetBugs · First Half WinnerwonUnion OmahaEstimated chance45%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha's strong home form and Richmond's away struggles make a home win from a halftime lead plausible, though not a certainty.
- Union Omaha home record: 7W-2D-0L
- Richmond away record: 1W-1D-8L
- Union Omaha lead at halftime in 13% of matches
BetBugs · Ht Ft DoublewonUnion Omaha/Union OmahaEstimated chance40%

Goals5 of 6 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home/away splits show high-scoring tendencies, and the recent H2H produced a seven-goal thriller, supporting over 2.5 goals.
- Union Omaha home matches average 3.1 total goals (19+9 over 9 games)
- Richmond away matches average 3.3 total goals (8+25 over 10 games)
- Last H2H meeting ended 4-3 (7 goals)
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha's defensive record at home is not perfect, and Richmond have shown they can score on the road, making both teams scoring plausible.
- Union Omaha have conceded in 6 of 9 home matches
- Richmond have scored in 6 of 10 away matches
- Union Omaha average 1.6 goals conceded overall
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Richmond's tendency to trail at halftime and Union Omaha's first-half scoring suggest at least one goal in the first half is likely.
- Union Omaha average 0.6 first-half goals scored, 0.7 conceded
- Richmond average 0.3 first-half goals scored, 1.0 conceded
- Richmond trail at halftime in 47% of matches
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams score more in the second half, and the combined average exceeds 1.5 goals, supporting over 1.5 second-half goals.
- Union Omaha average 1.3 second-half goals (1.9 total - 0.6 first half)
- Richmond average 0.5 second-half goals (0.8 total - 0.3 first half)
- Combined second-half average: 1.8 goals
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfwonOver 1.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Richmond's low scoring output and Union Omaha's occasional home clean sheets give a moderate chance of a home shutout.
- Union Omaha have kept 3 clean sheets in 9 home matches
- Richmond have failed to score in 4 of 10 away matches
- Richmond average 0.8 goals per game overall
BetBugs · Team to ScorelostRichmond Kickers not to scoreEstimated chance35%
Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Union Omaha's consistent home scoring and Richmond's leaky away defense make an away clean sheet highly unlikely.
- Union Omaha have scored in 8 of 9 home matches
- Richmond have conceded in 9 of 10 away matches
- Union Omaha average 2.1 goals per home game
BetBugs · Team to ScorewonUnion Omaha to scoreEstimated chance85%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Corner statistics are not provided, so this prediction is based on typical USL League One match patterns and is speculative.
- Corner data unavailable for both teams
- Union Omaha average 0 corners per match (data missing)
- Richmond average 0 corners per match (data missing)
BetBugs · Corners Over/Undernot gradableOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Card statistics are not provided, so this prediction is based on typical USL League One match patterns and is speculative.
- Card data unavailable for both teams
- Union Omaha average 0 yellow cards per match (data missing)
- Richmond average 0 yellow cards per match (data missing)
BetBugs · Cards Over/Undernot gradableOver 3.5Estimated chance50%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Implied 77.5% leaves no cushion vs our 68% estimate; price already reflects the directional read.

Prediction history

Union Omaha has struggled to convert win projections

Union Omaha has fulfilled 1 of 5 win projections. The average estimated probability was 48.6%, but only 20% of those matches resulted in wins. In missed matches, Union Omaha lost 3 times and drew once, with no wins.

Recent evidence for Union Omaha5 matches

Date / competitionMatch resultPredictedActualResult

19 Jul·USL League One