Over 1.5
Market 50% · BetBugs 60%
Both teams average over 1.0 second-half goals and H2H second halves average 2.4 goals, offering value at even odds.
Major League SoccerFull time
Predictions gradedPre-match view
A high-scoring affair is likely, but the best betting value is in Over 1.5 second-half goals (2.00, +10pt edge) and Over 4.5 cards (3.40, +30.6pt edge).
Avoid the overpriced Over 2.5 goals and BTTS markets, and tread carefully on match winner given St. Louis' historical edge and strong form.
Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.
Positive edges · 4
Market 50% · BetBugs 60%
Both teams average over 1.0 second-half goals and H2H second halves average 2.4 goals, offering value at even odds.
Market 40% · BetBugs 45%
Both teams have high first-half draw rates (San Jose 33%, St. Louis 47%) and H2H meetings often start evenly, with St. Louis conceding only 0.3 first-half goals away on average.
Market 54.1% · BetBugs 60%
Combined corners profile over the last 15 matches projects sustained wing pressure above the 9.5 baseline.
How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.
High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.
Implied 69.9% leaves no cushion vs our 65% estimate; odds too short for a medium-confidence play.
In their last 4 matches where Over 2.5 goals was predicted, San Jose Earthquakes saw 3 of those predictions fulfilled. The average estimated probability in these matches was 63%, and the current prediction of 65% sits within the historical range of 60–72%. Notably, the only miss occurred at home with a 60% probability, while all other home and away matches with similar or higher probabilities resulted in over 2.5 goals.
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF-GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | San Jose EarthquakesPromotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals) | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 37-24 | 33 |
| 7 | St Louis CityPromotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals) | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 24-24 | 26 |

